30 million more men than women in China by 2020

[Meng Lelan]

Wall Street Journal reports that China acknowledges that its one-child policy wiill result in 30 million more men than women in the 20-45 year age group by 2020, which "may push increasing numbers of Chinese men to move to other countries in search of partners".

Comments?

Lelan

[gamerfu]

Mongolia will united with China (sh)

Statistics are statistics, although China is a big country. They might want to enforce in the people, that family blood lines are within girls too.

My honest opinion, we all will be mixed one day.

[gato]

http://abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=2790469&page=1

China Fears Lopsided Sex Ratio Could Spark Crisis

By BETH LOYD

Jan. 12, 2007

A report by China's State Population and Family Planning Commission says that in 2005, there were 118.6 boys born for every 100 girls, and those figures are expected to increase with China's population. Experts warn of increased prostitution, AIDS cases and violence if this trend is not reversed to some degree.

Zhai Zhenwu, professor of demography at the People's University of China, tells ABC News that if this trend continues, "men won't be able to find wives, especially those with low income or little education. That will create social instability and increase discrimination against women."

In rural areas, the sex imbalance is even greater. As many as 130 baby boys are born for every 100 girls.

Here males are preferred out of necessity. Boys can help with the farming and have a better chance to make money for the family, as well as carry on the family name. There are reports that some poor parents of unwanted baby girls sell their babies for as little as $8 to those seeking girls for their sons.

[gougou]

"may push increasing numbers of Chinese men to move to other countries in search of partners".

I have doubts that the 30 million that will find themselves without girl are gonna be in a position to move abroad.

[adrianlondon]

As a gay man, I think this is a fanastic statistic ;)

On a slightly more serious note, this does place women in a position of power here; all the small domestic spats I've seen on the streets have been with the woman demanding, and winning, concessions from some browbeaten bloke. This coupled with the fact that foreign men seem to like the Chinese women, whereas the foreign women don't go for Chinese men (based solely on the mixed couples I see wandering aimlessly around Chaoyang), means the rate of single men must only increase over time.

In order to continue the "men must father children to pass on the family name" xiaoshun thing, maybe there needs to be a legalisation of polyandry (one woman, many husbands). The men all seem so busy at work anyway.

[Luobot]

China is doing a lot of research into stem cells. Before 2020, they’ll have the bio-technology to simply even out the population. This may be called the “One country, two genders” 5 year plan.

Good news: It won’t require a surgeon’s knife, but may be a little disorienting the first few days after the procedure.

[bhchao]

I wonder what would be the effects of shifting to a two-child policy. That was a policy originally conceived by Zhou Enlai.during the 60's.

It would probably increase the rate at which female babies are born, and could keep the the birth rate steady for males, but in the worst scenario, could also accelerate the birth rate for male babies if both children happen to be boys.

[wushijiao]

I also strongly doubt that the guys in the 30 million demographic (guys who can't find women in 2020) would have the ability to go abroad and marry a local woman.

On the other hand, I wonder if this means that women will have more power to find good husbands, or at least richer husbands, thus securing more money for their parents who would be in retirement. I sometimes wonder if all these rural parents are betting on the wrong gender!

[bhchao]

They could move to Hong Kong as there are more women than men there.

[Ncao]

I think a way the Chinese government could help this problem out is by stopping abortions that are based on the sex of the fetus and the abandonment of baby girls.

[gougou]

I think a way the Chinese government could help this problem out is by stopping abortions that are based on the sex of the fetus and the abandonment of baby girls.

By law, the practice of determining a child's gender before birth is illegal. Actually enforcing those laws, though, is practically impossible.

[HashiriKata]

Should those laowai who "bought" their wife from China be partially responsible for this trend ??

[Luobot]

Should those laowai who "bought" their wife from China be partially responsible for this trend ??

Actually, if that amounted to a significant enough number to impact China, then it would have a tremendous impact on Western male:female ratios, causing a shortage of men in the west, forcing western women to seek Chinese husbands, eventually evening things out again.

[pandaxiongmao]

They could move to Hong Kong as there are more women than men there.

Mainland Chinese need a one-way permit to move to Hong Kong. There is a low quota, something like 50 a day for such permits (though the quota has not been used up the past few years). If they are amongst the least-educated 30 million Chinese men, I doubt they would be picked to get such a permit. The priority is first for spouses and family that have been separated a long time, then spouses and family that have been separated a short time, then other people.

There is also the fact that Hong Kong women are generally better-educated than mainland women. If those men want a woman that is educated the same, or educated less than they are, Hong Kong will be no better for them.

[Xiaohua]

Send them to me! I would not mind picking a man from them.LOL!!

Back on topic- I think too that they should stop the one child policy. I was arguing with this girl who was adament about how the one child policy in china was flawless. I told her that there would be problems with it, and I was right. If this policy continues, then the people could possibly die out. Because it is the women who carry the babies. And if they are decresing, then what?! Not to mention the females who can't have children. So they really need to consider that. Is it really so wrong for a woman to have a child?! My goodness!!

[Ardison]

The root issue is the traditional value in the general public. A friend of mine has 4 daughters just because he keeps on and wants to have a baby boy.

This is just a bit of the phenomeon in the society.

Through education the gap may turn lower, but the time taken will not be short.

[gougou]

If this policy continues, then the people could possibly die out.

Of course, the policy is not going to be carried on that long. The main point is to keep the population at reasonable levels, which apparently it does quite a good job at - word is China's population would be at 1.7 billion without it.

While the male-female gap is a problem, I think what is going to be more severe are the effects on the pension system.

[Xiaohua]

Gougou- I don't think that the numbers are level. Because if it was there would be no gap. I'm not sure how long the policy will continue, but I heard that the law is in place permenately. So if I'm wrong let me know, because I'm not sure about how long the policy is.

[gougou]

I heard that the law is in place permenately

That is most likely the case, but once they don't consider it necessary anymore, they can rescind it pretty much over night. The people in charge are well aware of the problem and its effects especially on rural stability, and they are doing a lot to reduce the gender imbalance. If at any point they decide that the one-child policy's negative impact on the gender balance outweighs its benefits to overall population development, I am sure the policy will be rescinded very quickly.

[chenpv]

Well, since it is genetically decided that, without interference, approximately equal number of both male and female babies are to be born, I am afraid I really don't see any possibility that One-Child policy, or any regulations concerning birth rate control (if they dont go against natural law) could be the ultimate reason of such a gender disparity in China. On the other hand, I tend to agree with Ardison that this boy-over-girl traditional value is more responsible. Just so much news can you get from all kinds of resources that baby girls are deserted or stealthily murdered (sometimes by their own parents, crazy indeed.) once born, let alone those who are aborted before coming to this world.

I wonder what would be the effects of shifting to a two-child policy. That was a policy originally conceived by Zhou Enlai.during the 60's.

As far as I can see' date=' the only perceivable result of this policy would have been disastrous if it were carried out now, given people won't be able to change their mind in treating baby boys and girls. As long as having two boys is thought to be much better off than having only one, and likewise one boy better than none, I cannot be too pessimistic but see an even bigger disparity between two genders in Chinese population.

may push increasing numbers of Chinese men to move to other countries in search of partners

Well, I do doubt that China will permit such a loss of human resource in the next few years. But there ARE some friends from Yunan that once told me 'impoverished, docile, fertile and cheap' (to quote him, not me saying these.) females from countries bordering south China are available to: 1. marriage; 2. having children, whom would be brought to China once born.