Chinese may replace English in this century

[Meng Lelan]

To some extent maybe, but don't forget that most people have no talent for learning foreign languages at an adult age

That doesn't mean adults can't learn a foreign language.

[leeyah]

That doesn't mean adults can't learn a foreign language

Oh, but of course, especially if you're really enthusiastic about it, you know: where there is love, there's a way

Of all the languages I've learnt entirely out of love: Spanish in my early teens (12), Japanese at 19 and Chinese the latest, it turns out my Spanish & Japanese are quite rusty now, but my Chinese is getting better and better. To think that I started learning it at a ripe adult age of 23 ...

[ThankfulBlossom]

If it happens...it doubt it will be this century although their currency may replace the US dollar...

[tanklao]

Of all the languages I've learnt entirely out of love: Spanish in my early teens (12), Japanese at 19 and Chinese the latest, it turns out my Spanish & Japanese are quite rusty now, but my Chinese is getting better and better. To think that I started learning it at a ripe adult age of 23 ...

That is a very common case. I was told by many many Chinese-learners that Chinese is not that difficult. These days, a German told me that Spoken Chinese is the easiest language she has ever learnt. She learnt Chinese only for oral communication in China, because she had planned to travel in China for some time. She spent only one month and mastered almost all the daily talk (greeting, shopping, asking roads, accommodation, eating etc) in Chinese. She learnt Chinese mostly in Pinyin assisted by some characters.

[atitarev]

That is a very common case. I was told by many many Chinese-learners that Chinese is not that difficult. These days, a German told me that Spoken Chinese is the easiest language she has ever learnt. She learnt Chinese only for oral communication in China, because she had planned to travel in China for some time. She spent only one month and mastered almost all the daily talk (greeting, shopping, asking roads, accommodation, eating etc) in Chinese. She learnt Chinese mostly in Pinyin assisted by some characters.

You can pick some words, expressions, start understanding a bit. To learn a language well, or simply to build more vocabulary and improve the quality of your speech, you also need to read and here the problem usually starts. In my observation, some people don't memorise tones at all, even if they can repeat straight after the native speaker the first time.

[leeyah]

I was told by many many Chinese-learners that Chinese is not that difficult. These days, a German told me that Spoken Chinese is the easiest language she has ever learnt.

It's a funny phenomenon really, to most Westerners Chinese at first appears impossible to learn, but once they give it a go they start to think it's easy, which really is a boost to their newbie enthusiasm. Until some time later they actually try listening to the news reports, or understanding a wenyan-laden TV dialogue, or simply venture into reading a real book, other than their classroom textbook ...

To learn a language well, or simply to build more vocabulary and improve the quality of your speech, you also need to read and here the problem usually starts. ...

... especially with learning Chinese, yes. I find it's different with learning Indo-European languages, even after you've stopped using them, what you've learned will remain kind of "imprinted“ somewhere in the back of your mind as passive knowledge (e.g. you can still understand most of it on the level where you've left off, even if you haven't spoken a single word of it for years) and this passive knowledge can be reactivated at any time. I don't think this can be said of Chinese, though. The more you put into it the more complicated it gets, and sometimes it makes you feel that a lifetime is not enough. Learning a few simple sentences and expressions will suffice to make up a simple conversation in any language, including Chinese of course, especially if you're lucky to be in a Chinese speaking environment - mimicking and analogizing will do the job for you. And as a matter of fact, many foreigners spend years in China relying on this survival technique, but when they need serious stuff done (e.g. renting an apartment & all the hassle of registering etc etc) they simply hire an interpreter to do it for them. It takes time and lots of practice before you can actually claim with confidence: I can speak good Chinese. Especially if you're a (lazy ) visual learner like me who mostly relies on reading as a "reservoire" for spoken language ...

So, no, I don't think Chinese will replace English in this century because it's easy to learn (!) and as such threatens to become the new lingua franca of the world's non-Chinese population. I stand behind my view that Chinese may become dominant ONLY under the supposition that the rise in Chinese native speaking population continues, which is pretty obvious even now despite mainland one-child policy, and that Chinese economy does not turn into a "bubble" as was the case with e.g. Japan. Back in the 90's when I started learning Japanese, the West was so fascinated with the Japanese economic miracle that many people started to learn the language hoping for a boost in their careers. Everybody seemed to believe that Japanese would be the new lingua franca. Now I see Japanese students in China enthusiastically putting great effort into learning Mandarin, hoping for a lucrative career.

BTW, speaking of the rise in mainland population, in the West we are told that you're not allowed to have more than one child if you're Hanzu in mainland China, but when I came to China I realized that many people including many of our Hanzu teachers have two or even three children. There must be a catch somewhere ...

Edited October 2, 2009 at 07:15 PM by leeyah

[renzhe]

That is a very common case. I was told by many many Chinese-learners that Chinese is not that difficult. These days, a German told me that Spoken Chinese is the easiest language she has ever learnt. She learnt Chinese only for oral communication in China, because she had planned to travel in China for some time. She spent only one month and mastered almost all the daily talk (greeting, shopping, asking roads, accommodation, eating etc) in Chinese. She learnt Chinese mostly in Pinyin assisted by some characters.

Hahahahaha.

You're a laugh

Hahahahahaha

[simonlaing]

I agree Chinese is a tricky language.

Even the geniuses of language learning take awhile to learn Chinese. The US state department says it takes 5 years to get to a resonably fluent level.

I would classify learning get by chinese in a month as learning the language.

But the more the merrier. If telling people learning Chinese is easy gets more people to try to pick it up. More power to them.

Welcome .

have fun,

Simon:)

[xianhua]

I was told by many many Chinese-learners that Chinese is not that difficult

As I've posted elsewhere today, that's because Chinese people are consistently telling them that their Chinese is 'very good', and they have a gift for the language.

[renzhe]

How come I never meet these many many Chinese learners who think that Chinese is really easy?

I'd love to get some tips, I must be doing something wrong I only meet people with patchy skills after 10 years of studying and husbands who give up after a few months.

[muyongshi]

I think it is relatively easy in terms of grammar, concepts, etc. I think it just requires a lot of work, but not mentally challenging. Don't know if that makes sense but....

[animal world]

A Frenchman once told me that he was glad that English and not French was the world language because he would hated to see his language misused and abused all day long. He had a point! Yeah, many people all over the world speak English and that's great but it's not fantastic English. It has also created the misconception that there's nothing to English. When people make comments to that effect i urge them to study Shakespeare and read, as far as American writers are concerned, Fitzgerald, Thomas Wolfe and Hemingway.

Some aspects of Chinese are easy, others are definitely not. Even if people all over the world managed to speak Chinese, i don't see how they could take shortcuts with the characters to the degree they do now in the use of English. It's inconceivable that one world language would be used for conversations but another one for written communications. Therefore, i don't see Chinese overtaking English as the world language anytime soon.

I always wonder about the standards of people, like the lady quoted in a post above, who learn a bit of (touristy) Chinese and then have "no problems at all" communicating in China. Of course, they don't! They're tourists. Locals happily take their money and manage to understand what they want thanks to the tourists' reliance on gestures, body language, smiles and helpless looks.

[wushijiao]

I think it is relatively easy in terms of grammar, concepts, etc. I think it just requires a lot of work, but not mentally challenging. Don't know if that makes sense but....

It makes sense to me, muyongshi.

How come I never meet these many many Chinese learners who think that Chinese is really easy?

Also makes sense! The issue is really the depth that Chinese usage has, as animal world pointed out.

One interesting idea might be the concept that the use of English will stay as it is currently, but that we might see the rise of regional languages and perhaps a slight decline in English over time. (Steve Kaufman originally came up with this idea, and I think it makes sense.)

Essentially, the argument goes, the whole world after the Cold War universally started learning English as the language of the word's only superpower. The US was perceived to have the world's best political system, education system, and the Washington consensus ruled the day. After this financial collapse, to some degree, people around the world have questioned the wisdom of the Anglo-Americans across many fields, and it's possible that English may take a hit because of it. (Of course, many other countries in the world speak English, Jamaica, Belize, Pakistan...and so on, but many English-learners tie English almost exclusively to the UK, Canada, Australia, and the US) Meanwhile, we are witnessing the "rise of the rest"- Russia, China, India, Brazil, Turkey, and many Arab states.

Therefore, it could be that people from small countries that surround the giant regional powers may view that it's worth it to educate their kids in the regional language, rather than English. Thus, Central Asians may learn Turkish, Vietnamese might choose Mandarin, Peruvians might learn Portuguese, young people in the Ukraine may learn Russian...etc. That may not be universal, but more and more people might see the advantage in learning these languages, because the regional power would be a huge trading partner (with lots of job opportunities), and because often these languages might be closer and easier to learn than English.

Anyway, this is just an idea. I don't think English is going anywhere, but I think the odds that we see the rise of new regional languages isn't all that far-fetched. At least in the case of Chinese, I know at least one Korean and one Vietnamese person who said that Chinese was much easier for them compared to English (because of all the cognates and loan words).

[mcgau]

the discussion seems to be going to a wrong way. No language could be lingua franca because they were "stable", "take up less computing space", "easier to learn", so I think "lingua franca" is a political issue more than a linguistic topic.

I believe that there'll be more and more Chinese-language learners, but it doesn't mean it will take over English.

1. the cost of switching to a new language is huge. At the ancient time when education was a privilege to small population, Latin had still enjoyed the status as European lingua franca for long time even after the demise of the Roman Empire. In modern time, if we need to switch to another language, the affected educated group is an elephant that can't dance.

2. English has earned its modern status by a lot of military success, advance in technology and many influential doctrines. While China is getting to be a great power, America has already been the greatest power for long time and no one can match their soft power at this time. China's soft power may not even match Japan.

3. If English could really fall down like Latin, what would it mean? The demise of United Empires of America? Genocide? Nuclear bomb? This is a very radical change and something must happen to replace English with any other language.

[animal world]

Therefore, it could be that people from small countries that surround the giant regional powers may view that it's worth it to educate their kids in the regional language, rather than English. Thus, Central Asians may learn Turkish, Vietnamese might choose Mandarin, Peruvians might learn Portuguese, young people in the Ukraine may learn Russian...etc. That may not be universal, but more and more people might see the advantage in learning these languages, because the regional power would be a huge trading partner (with lots of job opportunities), and because often these languages might be closer and easier to learn than English.

Possible but i'm not sure. Brazil is geared to become the powerhouse of Latin America. It's the only country on that continent that speaks Portuguese. Does it mean all these countries (with huge masses of poorly educated people) will take up Portuguese? I don't know.

As to the Ukraine taking up Russian, i think many of the former Soviet Union's satellite countries are loath to now voluntarily take up Russian after it had been forced upon them during the Soviet Union era.

An interesting question to me is what official language the EU will one day adopt. I suspect that will be English but i can see France balking at that to no small degree. Would like to hear Renzhe's view on this issue.

Even though i don't entirely like it, the entire world will continue to babble in English.

[renzhe]

I think it is relatively easy in terms of grammar, concepts, etc.

I wouldn't go as far to call it easy, but I agree that Chinese grammar is really not that bad.

The most difficult things about Chinese IMHO, are the tones and the writing system. Most problems while learning Chinese somehow boil down to one of these two in the end.

[gerri]

I could imagine something pidgin-like in communication. Ever seen Firefly? English is the main language, but Chinese also to be seen everywhere and used (somewhat, usually for swearing ;) ) in daily communication...(at least, that was one of the ideas of that series).

It's a matter of economic might, and also of how you count things: if you took the population of China as all the people who speak Chinese (give and take a few, but there's also overseas Chinese to consider, anyways), it's already a dominant language.

Will it "replace" English? Not likely, given that you have so many chances to get in touch with English, not least from TV series, pretty much no matter where you are. English is also established enough in academia... China would have to become a scientific powerhouse for Chinese to gain any international importance in that arena, but it seems more than unlikely.

As for the EU: policy is and will likely remain that all languages have to be respected. That's one of the mainstays of EU politics - even as it is costly and a hassle. Still, an interesting approach, too. What could be discussed here is what role dialects will play... German for example is different between different regions in Germany, add the German of Switzerland and Austria with their regional variants...

[Loriquero]

Possible but i'm not sure. Brazil is geared to become the powerhouse of Latin America. It's the only country on that continent that speaks Portuguese. Does it mean all these countries (with huge masses of poorly educated people) will take up Portuguese? I don't know.

I think it´s happening both ways, brazilian schools are offering spanish courses and now schools in Argentina and Uruguay are doing the same with portuguese, in the near future probably most of the south american countries will have mandatory portuguese courses as Brazil will increase it´s regional influence... Besides that, for us spanish native speakers is a lot, lot easier learning portuguese than english... (and IMO funnier...)

About the future of the US XD I see most likely spanish sharing stage with english as the demographics change in this country.... and it´s happening, after Mexico, the US are supposed to have the second biggest spanish speaking population in the world.

[imron]

I love Firefly, I really do, but if some time in the distant future Chinese becomes a lingua franca I truly hope that it is not as butchered and mutilated as much as it is in Firefly

[wushijiao]

I think it´s happening both ways, brazilian schools are offering spanish courses and now schools in Argentina and Uruguay are doing the same with portuguese, in the near future probably most of the south american countries will have mandatory portuguese courses as Brazil will increase it´s regional influence... Besides that, for us spanish native speakers is a lot, lot easier learning portuguese than english... (and IMO funnier...)

This is exactly what I was talking about Loriquero. I was in Chile from 1999-2000 and traveed around South America quite a bit, and not many people were learning Portugese back then (although some). I bet it's increased a ton, however, since Brazil has been dong so well culturally and economically recently (ie. Rio 2016!)

the US are supposed to have the second biggest spanish speaking population in the world.

Well, around 30 million or so. I think that puts it around 4th or 5th place.