Exchange rate GBP and CNY

[Guest realmayo]

Hmm, in 2000+ I got paid my (teaching) salary from China in RMB, in 2009 I'll be paying Chinese university fees etc in GBP .... perhaps I'm doing this the wrong way around......

EDIT: next time sterling is at 1:2 versus the dollar, remind me to buy a thousand.

[adrianlondon]

You've got it. You only need one skill to make a huge financial profit : hindsight.

[roddy]

It was 15 to the pound two years ago.

15 is my psychological 'that's where it should be' level. Which is ridiculous, as it ain't happening again in my life time.

next time sterling is at 1:2 versus the dollar, remind me to buy a thousand.

This I might live to see - not sure if my pension will run to a full thousand though.

[Guest realmayo]

well by that time inflation will probably mean GBP500 is barely enough to cover a few pints of stella and a pack of salt and vinegar.

[roddy]

Reading stuff like this is worrying - that's mostly about pound vs dollar but things aren't looking good for pound vs any currency. I'm not too badly off as a certain amount of my income is USD, so I'm doing better converting that into GBP, but as I've said in a few months I'm going to be converting GBP>CNY and that's likely to hurt. At this rate looking for a source of RMB income is getting more attractive by the day. Get in now before the British boat people arrive and steal all the jobs. . .

[Guest realmayo]

If i remember right, there were two simplistic ideas about the dollar at the moment. First, if the recession and banking problems in the US get worse and worse, then the value of the dollar will fall.

But, second, if the whole world goes belly-up, then people will put money into dollars, because the US is the world's biggest economy and when the world moves out of recession etc, the US will still be the biggest and strongest. So the dollar will go up.

Linking the two though: if the US goes through a REALLY tough time (scenario 1), the whole world will probably suffer with it (scenario 2).

As for the pound, I guess it's just been overvalued over the last 10 years: the financial markets seem to have played -- proportionately -- a far greater role in the UK's economy than elsewhere, so naturally, as those markets boomed, sterling strengthened, etc...

[adrianlondon]

Get in now before the British boat people arrive and steal all the jobs. . .

This is an interesting point. I'm an IT consultant in a somewhat specialised market. Until a few months ago, it was better for me to work for 6 months in the UK and spend the next 6 months in China not bothering to earn anything, rather than look for work in China.

I only did that once though, and spent 6 months studying in Beijing at 15元 to £1.

It's going to be 9元 to £1 in the next few days so standard rates of IT pay in China, while still low, don't seem quite so bad when thought of in Sterling.

As an aside, I've been working in Germany for the last 7 months and at the beginning I picked this role as I fancied working abroad, and took the pay cut (as UK contractor rates were always higher than European ones). I'm now being paid, in Sterling terms, more than I was in London.

Of course, this is all relative, and assumes that my future life will be in the UK, and Sterling will recover.

Edited January 21, 2009 at 01:14 PM by adrianlondon
though=thought

[roddy]

It's going to be 9元 to £1 in the next few days so standard rates of IT pay in China, while still low, don't seem quite so bad when though of in Sterling.

And I suspect when you look at how much you can save in sterling terms per month it's going to be even more attractive. Moving money out of the country is a bit of a hassle, but if legitimately earned it should be possible - not sure of the current regulations though.

[AxelManbow]

With Mervyn's comments yesterday, listing a whole bunch of good points for a weak pound, and lacking any positive for a strong pound, pressure is hardly on the upside. His speech in Nottingham (also published yesterday) was also rather ominous - buying corporate debt, perhaps, doing something else perhaps, just not too sure what. Hardly instils confidence.

If I were the original OP I'd continue a phased transfer of savings from GBP into CNY. If the future were obvious it would have already happened. Stay conservative with finances and don't take any rash actions - slowly transfer funds, as downside exists as well as upside.

Roddy - yes transfers out of the country are being monitored quite a bit more at the moment, but that's mainly speculative FDI inflows in late 07 and early-mid 08 looking to exit. For a legal employee it's still OK to transfer up to 70% of earnings out of the country, given correct paperwork from the sponsoring employer.

A quote from Gordon Brown in 1992: "A weak currency arises from a weak economy, which in turn is the result of a weak government."

[Long Zhiren]

But, second, if the whole world goes belly-up, then people will put money into dollars, because the US is the world's biggest economy and when the world moves out of recession etc, the US will still be the biggest and strongest. So the dollar will go up.

The US may come out relatively strong, but the USD is in for a steep drop very soon.

We are in for an interesting ride up ahead.

With the US spending seven to eight times its expenditures on the Iraq War at the moment on government bailouts... and the Obama administration already putting pressures on China to further depeg readjust its currency... US$800 Billion in bailouts with 2 million new jobs envisioned? What 2 million jobs are worth US$400,000 each?

Am I being silly, or is this a recipe for an automatic 100+% inflation of the USD? In other words, we have 6.X CNY per USD right now. By the end of the year, it should not be far-fetched to predict 4.X CNY per USD. I don't believe the GBP will be hit quite as crazy.

I don't mean to hijack this GBP vs CNY thread, there was one on USD vs CNY from way back in the spring of 2008. I shall seek it out and awaken it.

It may be time to buy some more CNY. The batch that I bought last May did okay, not fabulous but was positive even though it had 0% interest. It's just that the USD has been sinking. It will sink a lot more this year and absolutely nothing can stop it now.

[peekay]

The USD can't drop so steeply and so quickly against the CNY without huge negative repercussions to the Chinese economy. The Chinese government will never let that happen, and will try to devalue the yuan in lockstep with any USD decline.

One reason being a quick, steep USD devaluation against CNY will bankrupt Chinese factories and mean millions of Chinese will be without jobs.

The other reason is the Chinese government holds almost $700 billion in US Treasuries. The Chinese have a vested interest in keeping the USD strong.

So any strengthening of the CNY against USD will be a long, drawn-out process managed over years.

Of course on the flip-side Obama would love to see a weaker USD against all major currencies... it makes US factories much more competitive. Obama's administration will pressure the Chinese to let the CNY rise any chance they get.

[Guest realmayo]

Interesting FTAlphaville link suggesting that weak pound could be intentional, and in UK's best interests. not in mine though!

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/23/51595/in-defence-of-sterling/

[Guest realmayo]

Happened to be looking at the Bank of China UK's website: they let you hedge currency risk!

RMB Transfer is a special pre-settlement remittance service that we offer.

If you want to send money to your family or friends in mainland China, we will set up an RMB exchange rate for you in advance, and your recipient in mainland China can receive the correct value of money in RMB without worrying about the exchange rate rising or falling.

RMB Transfer can help you:

* To send Sterling Pounds in UK and receive RMB in China

* To avoid the risk of exchange rate fluctuation

* To save your recipient's time in terms of the foreign exchange declaration required by the Chinese regulatory body

How to arrange RMB Transfer:

To enjoy the convenient service, simply visit any of our branches with your proof of identity and address.

[adrianlondon]

Ouch (for GBP people) - it's back down to 9.4y to the pound.

[AxelManbow]

gold looks good at the moment, vs USD, given inflation risk.

GBP looks very attractive, except from the crap government and worse opposition.

Perhaps towards the end of unwinding carry trades propping up USD and JPY, will be interesting over next few months.

[roddy]

Not currently accepted at the local supermarket, I fear. 9.4, sheesh . . .

(gold, I mean. Pesky ninja edits )

[adrianlondon]

How much goes a gold bar cost? I wonder how you'd use it in payment - maybe the cafe owner could be allowed to lick it in order to pay for a basket of baozi.

[roddy]

9.94 - has jumped today presumably because of the US magicking up USD 1 trn of new money, although for all I know it could be because it's Thursday.

It is Thursday, isn't it?

[roddy]

10 and change - nice to see it back in double figures.

[adrianlondon]

It's just gone over 11. Looks like my post of November 2008 is still managing to hold true ;)