Electricity shortage

[skylee]

I have just heard from TV news that the lighting along the Bund in Shanghai has been turned off to save energy. And here is a report on Time about the electricity shortage in China -> China's Long Dark Summer.

(As I am not sure if everyone/anyone can read it I quote some of the passages.)

China's economic boom is, quite literally, running out of power. Since 1980, when the nation's economy first began to emerge from the darkness, energy consumption has skyrocketed by more than 150%. But construction of new power plants has not kept pace. Last year, millions of Chinese suffered blackouts when massive power shortages affected two-thirds of the country's 31 provinces and municipalities. Multinational companies operating in China, among them General Motors and Panasonic, were forced to shift their production schedules to off-peak hours, which lost them days of work, while thousands of local companies suspended operations entirely as available energy was funneled to foreign and joint-venture firms to keep their assembly lines humming. The electricity crunch hit China's fastest-developing eastern and southern regions the hardest, as overtaxed power plants simply couldn't keep up with the pressure from energy-intensive industries such as steel and cement. As a result, a province like Zhejiang saw its 2003 economic growth rate come in 1% lower than expected.

This year, the power pinch could be far worse. Chinese officials estimate that the nation will suffer a record shortfall of 30 million kilowatts, twice last year's deficit. In the first quarter, China's electricity demand was 16% higher than in the same period last year, a figure set to surge even more if it's a hot summer. Says Long Weiding, an engineering professor at Shanghai's Tongji University who advises the local government on power issues: "This is China's first major public crisis after SARS."

Municipal authorities in China's big cities are rolling out a variety of measures—some of them seemingly desperate—to try to keep citizens out of the dark. In Beijing, a cheery public relations campaign encourages cool, casual dress, telling yuppies that suits are unnecessary when the temperatures soar. Hotels in Shanghai have been told they must set their thermostats no lower than 26°C, and streetlights have been fitted with energy-saving bulbs. The city of 16 million is even considering seeding clouds on the summer's hottest days to induce cooling rain showers.

The blackouts plaguing China are a rude awakening for those who consider the brightly lit skylines of the country's eastern seaboard a symbol of national progress and prosperity. "China has fallen in love with electricity," says Christopher Choa, an architect who heads the Shanghai branch of American firm HLW. "Blazing lighting and abundantly available power are considered almost sensual experiences, more than just metaphors for modernity." But the affection for dazzling lights has not translated into a commensurate investment in energy infrastructure, notwithstanding China's showpiece $25 billion Three Gorges Dam, the world's largest hydropower project. In 1993, amid a frenzy of bureaucratic belt tightening, China eliminated its Ministry of Energy, leaving power policy scattered among various, largely uncoordinated entities. Then, in 1998, after a brief oversupply of electricity following the Asian financial crisis, Beijing issued a moratorium on the construction of coal-fueled power plants for three years. While demand for power leaped—electricity consumption grew by 10.5% in 2002, up from 2.6% in 1998—increases in electricity-generation capacity slowed from an 8.4% growth rate in 1998 to 4.4% in 2002. "China underestimated its power demand quite dramatically," says Pierre Lau, an analyst for ABN AMRO in Hong Kong. "They realized the problem a couple of years later, but by then it was too late."

What do you think?

[wushijiao]

Yeah, this is a big problem. My girlfriend is a manager at a factory in Shanghai, and production has halted a couple times because of blackouts. Her factory also has to stop for a week in early August.

This sucks, but I certainty empathize with the government on this case. I wouldn't want to be the official that has to find a solution to this problem.

[galitonwu]

same situation in Nanjing

[elizaberth]

WO ZHEN WEI ZHONG GUO GAN DAO JIN ZHANG.

DAN, TIAN XIA MEI YOU SHI QUAN SHI MEI DE DI FANG. LIAN ZI YI WEI WU FENG WU LANG DE XIN JIA PO, YE YOU DIAN LIU ZHONG DUAN DE SHI HOU.

XI WANG ZHONG GUO JIN KUAI JIE JUE NENG YUAN DUAN QUE DE WEN TI. JIE YI JU ZI GAI DE SHU YU: CHI DE KU ZHONG KU, FANG WEI GUO SHANG GUO.

God bless China.

[Quest]

reading that pinyin gave me a headache....

[ala]

Don't blame pinyin though.

[amperel]

reading that pinyin gave me a headache....

second that

[waxwing]

I think the short term solution is nuclear power.

I'll be amazed if even one person agrees with me, though.

[bhchao]

A long-term solution would be renewable sources of energy such as solar and hydro power. They will conserve energy and can be used to produce hydrogen fuel, which can produce high voltage powers for electric power stations. They are also 100% pollution-free.

[shibo77]

God bless China.

Did you get that from Bush?

Wouldn't "May the Great Helmsman Chairman Mao bless China" be more realistic, since most are atheists here?

-Shibo

[Claw]

I'll be amazed if even one person agrees with me, though.

Actually I do agree with you. Nuclear power is a heck of a lot safer than it used to be, and the waste products are becoming more and more manageable.

For long-term though, we'll need to start looking to renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, but more advances are needed before they are efficient enough to power the world. Hydro is actually not too bad, but one side effect that people tend to forget about is that when you build the dam, it ends up flooding wide swaths of land, effectively destroying the surrounding habitat.

[ala]

I think the solution is indeed nuclear power. 30-40% of American electricity is nuclear powered.

If China used more nuclear power, less coal burning would be needed, we might finally breathe some clean air, and the temperature might drop a couple of degrees (less power consumption!).

[elizaberth]

reading that pinyin gave me a headache

oh my, you miss the fun of using Pin Yin.

Did you get that from Bush?

Wouldn't "May the Great Helmsman Chairman Mao bless China" be more realistic, since most are atheists here?

that really tickles me, cut that out babe.

[Lu]

Nuclear power? But what would China do with the waste? It may be more and more manageble, but I'm concerned that China wouldn't bother, that they would just dump it in some lake, or bury it somewhere, and then in 50 or 100 years there will be a big problem.

China is not really the No. 1 country in protection of the environment, I wouldn't trust them with waste that is even more dangerous than the waste they're dumping everywhere now.

[waxwing]

Well, like the Americans, they have large deserts. In Britain we had to deal with it much closer to population centres.

But your point about trust is of course relevant.

[Ian_Lee]

I read that both the Volkswagen and GM plants at Shanghai have been ordered to halt production for 10 days.

And in the night time there is brownout throughout the whole city.

Just curious. Are those people in the residential neighborhood allowed to turn on their AC at home under such sweltering heat (I heard the day time temperature is close to 40 degrees Celsius)?

[holyman]

heard from a chinese friend what they used to do is to maintain the power supply for military and govt sector first, then they consider the commercial and private sector. but these few yrs policy changed and they pay more attention to the comercial and private sector.

i think nuclear is a good idea too. actually china had pretty good laws on environment protection, in fact they have pretty good laws on most things. the problem is with the execution, so the best thing is keep a closer watch on the officials.

[wix]

If China maintains its current levels of economic growth and increasing industrialisation and private consumption the power shortage will become more chronic and start to have serious impacts.

It is overly simplistic to say nuclear or renewables are the solution. The situation has in some respects come about through lack of planning. e.g. increasing numbers of people now own refrigerators. The refrigerators sold in China are not the most energy efficient and soon there may not be enough electricity to power them all. Ten years ago the government should have invested more in promoting the manufacture of energy efficient refrigerators.

Similarly it is only a matter of time before China faces a crisis in its transport system because the government has chosen to pursue a model based on private car ownership. The cost and availability of oil will eventually bite.

In many ways the decisions made by the Chinese government are shaping major events in the world's economy and environment over the next few decades.

Also hydrogen is not really an answer to the energy crisis. It should really only be thought of as a way of storing energy. You still need to generate electricity in some way to get the hydrogen and in many cases it would be more efficient to use that electricity directly.

And nuclear is EVIL!!!!!

[Claw]

It is overly simplistic to say nuclear or renewables are the solution. The situation has in some respects come about through lack of planning. e.g. increasing numbers of people now own refrigerators.

I think it's overly simplistic to say the nuclear is evil and is not the solution. You can't stop people from buying refrigerators or other modern convienences. China is becoming a modern country, and you can't prohibit them from using modern convienences that the rest of the industrialized world gets to use.

China needs to be able to supply the electricity to power a modern country. You seem to dismiss every single proposed solution but do not suggest any alternative. Nuclear energy is one short-term solution that is probably one of the most efficient ways to do it. They probably do need to come up with another long-term solution, but in order to keep pace with growth, they need something soon.

This is not to say that there hasn't been bad planning. Building too many highways that encourage private car ownership was probably bad planning, and it will eventually hit them when oil shortages strike. However, what does that have to do with the current electricity shortages?

[wix]

Claw, I understand the point you are making but still disagree with you.

The issues are comples and worthy of a book. However, there is only so much you can say in a 100 word post on the internet.

This is not to say that there hasn't been bad planning. Building too many highways that encourage private car ownership was probably bad planning, and it will eventually hit them when oil shortages strike. However, what does that have to do with the current electricity shortages?

All these issues are interrelated to some extent. They all come back to key issues related to sustainability, climate change and finite resources. I just used fridges and transport as examples. Building design and air travel are other important issues. Another thing to start thinking about is water resources. Not only does China face water shortages in many areas but there will be conflict over use of water for hydro-electricity and agriculcture or industry.

You seem to dismiss every single proposed solution but do not suggest any alternative.

I don't dismiss anything except nuclear power. Renewables are part of the solution, but only part. As I said the issues are complex and unfortunately the answers to the problem won't be as simple as nuclear or renewables.

You can't stop people from buying refrigerators or other modern convienences. China is becoming a modern country, and you can't prohibit them from using modern convienences that the rest of the industrialized world gets to use.

I understand the aspiration of every Chinese person to have these things especially when the "Western countries" already enjoy them. However, please consider this. If China's economy grows to the point where it is similar in per capita consumption to North America and Europe then China's demand for resources will be equal to or greater than that of those countries. We live in a world were resources are finite. This will create enormous competition for resources or the resources may not simply be available to match demand.

I am not saying people in the USA should enjoy these things while the Chinese should not. What I am saying is that China needs to reassess what is realistic for its people to aspire to. The USA and other countries in turn have to consider that their current levels of consumption are unsustainable and need to be moderated.

I have only touched on the various issues here but I hope you will give them some more thought. Maybe one day I will have the time to write a book about it!

For some very interesting insights into some of these issues related energy I suggesting reading some of the work done by the Rocky Mountain Institute.