Comparision of China and Russia

[CrisPal]

I would like to discuss with you about these two countries, China and Russia and would like to know your view as to which one is more powerful than the other. And whose future is more secure to become a global superpower in the near future. China has evolved as a great country since the last two decades and its economy is going to surpass the economy of the USA within a few years. Militarily it has become much advanced but still lags behind Russia which it would surely surpass if current trends continue. But China risks population unrest. Russia has attained stability under Putin and has reemerged as a great power if not a superpower. It has huge gas and oil reserves and thus it has a lot of influence in Europe which is dependent on its gas. Its economy is rising and technologically its advanced. Russia was able to invade Georgia and declare its two regions as independent countries. Now Ukraine is the last battle which Russia is desperate to win. What do you think? Which country is more powerful and become the other global superpower? China or Russia?

[chrix]

Who says the world is going towards bipolarity again?

[Outofin]

Ultimatedly, It’s determined by productivity times population.

To ensure not be surpassed by Russia, the Americans must keep their productivity not to fell under half of Russia’s. They can do much better than that. On the other hand, how long can they keep productivity 4 times higher than China’s?

[Prodigal Son]

China has a far, far brighter future than Russia. Russia has a dying population and severe economic problems because they produce little of value other than natural resources (which, like their aging population, won't last long).

Also your estimation about China's economy being larger than that of the US in the next few years is definitely inaccurate. China's economy is on track to overtake Japan's this year (if all goes well), but it's still a long way from the United States.

[CrisPal]

Exctly right that China has a lng way from the US.

[xifbk]

It depends on what you mean by overtake. I remember an article in popular media which predicted that china's GDP (Gross domestic product) will overtake USA's GDP this year or next year.

This fact is is widely disagreed upon by economists.

http://www.oecd.org/document/15/0,2340,en_2649_201185_35363023_1_1_1_1,00.html

[Prodigal Son]

It depends on what you mean by overtake. I remember an article in popular media which predicted that china's GDP (Gross domestic product) will overtake USA's GDP this year or next year.

This fact is is widely disagreed upon by economists.

The article says that China's exports could exceed that of the US, not GDP. GDP is a long way off and China is primarily and export driven economy, unlike the US which exports less and less since you can't manufacture goods as easily when you have workers rights, minimum wage, and 1/100th as many people willing to work for pennies.

By looking here you can see that China's GDP is currently not even 30% of the US.

[eatfastnoodle]

Well, the article you quoted dates back to 2005, we're in 2010 now. And exactly this year, China surpassed Germany, Germany, not the US, to become the largest exporter of the world, not having largest GDP in the world, exactly as predicated by the report. While I do think today's economists, in particular those economists who are way too media savvy than they should have been, should not be blindly trusted. Here, you picked a wrong case to make your point.

As for exactly when or if China's GDP will surpass that of the US, well, there are wide range of opinions. Two widely quoted research done by Goldman Sachs and PricewaterhouseCoopers, Goldman predicated that China would overtake the US by the year 2027 while later PricewaterhouseCoopers report pushed that date forward to 2020. Given the fact that between 1999 and 2009, Chinese economy quadrupled in size. It'd not really an stretch to think that China would overtake the US in 2020 or a little bit later. Of course, you have to assume that China will repeat its explosive growth registered during the decade just passed. That's not a given. And frankly, predicting what's gonna happen 10 years from now is always more of a intellectual exercise/media gimmick than anything substantial or trustworthy. Time changes, stuff happens. Bill Clinton triumphantly declared right before he left office that the federal government would have an accumulated surplus in the range of 1.5 to 2 trillions dollars by the year 2010. Well, this is 2010, Obama's 3.8 T budget for 2010 will have 1.6 T deficit for this year alone. Can't say Clinton's vision turn out that well, can you? The point is it's impossible to predict what's gonna happen tomorrow, let alone 10 years from now. George W.Bush declared China an "strategic competitor" in 2000, followed by the fighter vs surveillance plane incident, coupled with loads of articles from conservative think tanks about reexamining ties with China, at that time, it was widely assumed and seen that these two were on a collision course. The next thing you know, two plane slammed into twin towers and everything turned upside down. I bet what happened in 2002 and 2003 were wildly different from what the pundits were predicting at Sept.10, 2001. So it's important to keep things in perspective.

As for Russia, well, given the size of Russia itself and Russian nuclear stockpile, nobody has the ball to really mess with Russia in the foreseeable future regardless how empty Russian far east has become (if Russia could not hold itself together, it's not likely as far as I see, but there does exist a distinct possibility given the ethic mix-up in Russia and ratio of ethic Russians in the total population. Anyway, if that bomb went off, then all bets are off.) and Russia probably would do just fine by being a commodity exporter (Saudi Arabia did fine and nobody could say Saudi has no influence in the world.) Putin himself will probably remain the most important factor determining Russia's future for the next decade, there are reasons he's so popular, he obviously did something right, but he does seem to have little clue on diversifying Russian economy, so Russian economy probably will be more on roller-coaster than any other major economy (so is Brazil) in the future, it's bad but it's not that bad as raw material, energy are all finite resources that economies like China will undoubtedly continue to suck up in large volume in the future. So I'll not worry too much about Russia's near term future (don't expect Russia to be the West's buddy either, as Russia will never content to be an second fiddle power while the West's antagonism toward Russia is deeply ingrained in its psyche, in particular in the minds of people who actually count.)

[jbradfor]

If you want to talk economies, especially long term, I think you need to add India.

Total GDP = per-capital GDP times population.

Long term, China's population growth is scheduled to slow. According to about.com, China's total fertility rate is 1.7, while India's is 2.8. If current trends continue, China's population will peak and start to decline at around 2030, and India will become the most populous country by 2040. [in contrast, the USA's fertility rate is 2.1, right around the replacement rate. Plus the USA has much higher rates of immigration than either China or India.]

According to the IMF, the 2009 per capital GDP was US$46k for USA, $3,566 for China, and US$1,033 for India. So based on that, India has a way to go. They need about a 3x increase in per-capital GDP over China's growth. That may be a stretch. But it doesn't seem impossible to me if China stumbles (internal unrest, current business model runs out of gas) and India overcomes their structural and political issues.

[Outofin]

If you want to talk economies, especially long term, I think you need to add India.

I've seen some predictions/projections that around 2050, China will be number 1 in term of absolute GDP, with both USA and India trailing at about half of that. So yes, India will be a global power in our lifetime.

To add more spice to my post: China's development, despite its unprecedent scale, isn't much different from other countries' development model, while India will be the first country that becomes a rich and great power AFTER it's become a democratic and free country. I know many won't agree, but it makes sense to see it both ways.

[atitarev]

So I'll not worry too much about Russia's near term future (don't expect Russia to be the West's buddy either, as Russia will never content to be an second fiddle power while the West's antagonism toward Russia is deeply ingrained in its psyche, in particular in the minds of people who actually count.)

The English speaking mass media is controlled by Americans and the British who are traditionally anti-Russian and have cold war mentality, every failure of Russia is rejoiced. It affects the investments and many other things. That's why US misses out on many opportunities because of narrow-mindedness (take Cuba for example - it could be an opportunity for US like Taiwan is for China). Despite Obama rhetoric, the "fist" towards Russia was never unclenched and no "button" was reset.

Even in the West not everyone follows what the Americans say. For Europe (apart from UK and some former Soviet satellites turned adversaries), especially Germany, Italy - Russia is the main business partner and not just for energy. Germany continues to increase investments in Russia. For China and India - Russia is very important too.

Comparing China and Russia is not in Russia's favour. Russia will stay in the top 10 economies but it may not be able to reach China's economic growth soon. To get a better picture about the prospects in Russia, one should read a variety of sources.

[gato]

China's been rising faster in terms of growth rate, but Russia still has a much higher per capita GDP. Not clear if that's translated into much higher median icons or if it's concentrated in a few. The failure to translate much of the GDP growth into personal income growth has been a problem in China. Personal income now make up something like only 30% of China's GDP, with the rest going to the government and businesses, whereas in most other large economies, like India and Japan, personal income make up a much higher percentage of GDP, closer to 60%. The Chinese government has acknowledged this problem and made adjusting the "primary distribution of income" one of the priorities in this year's economic work plan.

[atitarev]

Still it doesn't give much credit to Russia. It dropped economically from high levels in Soviet times, suffered too many crises and is slowly recovering. The prospects are good but could be better and China certainly achieved much more in the last 20-30 years.