Currency Revaluation

[SampanViking]

Dont be fooled. A strenghtening Yuan will effect those living in China as Imports will become more expensive.

China is a major importer of Raw Materials and Oil, most of which are Internationaly priced in US Dollars. The perentages may be small, but on tight margins they have quite noticable effects.

When profits are squeezed of course, one of the first areas to feel the pinch are workers salaries.

[adrianlondon]

If the chinese currency gets stronger, surely imports become cheaper.

[chenpv]

This is excepted from today's Zaobao.com:

OECD报告也警告，要正视日益增加的贸易失衡，尤其是美国的经常账赤字及贸易逆差的“双赤字”问题。理论上，消除美国“双赤字”，目前已经走软的美元还有必要贬值30％至50％。

So OECD suggests that the US should devaluate the already weak dollar by 30% to 50%, so as to eliminate the 'double deficits'. What can we read from these words?

[SampanViking]

Jack London said

If the chinese currency gets stronger, surely imports become cheaper

Sampan says

I definitely need a holiday. Golden Rule No:1, never make your first post on a new forum when you are stressed and exhausted, you will end up posting rubbish.

Not total rubbish however: if the price of goods exported from China goes up, then demand for some commodities will fall. Initially this will trigger a fall of prices, but this inturn will hit the viability of some extraction/mining operations, leading to closure, reducing supply. With supplies reduced prices can recover and maybe, become more higher before.

Clutching at straws? probably, but then pride and reputation is at stake.

[skylee]

Renminbi rising.

Yuan rides to fresh high on weak dollar

Chinese currency soars to new high against US dollar

港幣跌近1:1 深圳商舖拒收

[adrianlondon]

Your first sentence should really read "RMB rising against the dollar"

For those of us here spending money from our UK sterling bank accounts, it's just got a little bit weaker. Which is good, those 3y xiao-long-bao were starting to burn a hole in my pocket ...

[heifeng]

So, for the US dollar holding people, is it just time to convert everthing to another currency? I am guessing I should have converted long ago (prior to the first revaluation in 2005), but now, what would those who are more informed on these issue advise on now? A dollar rebound just isn't likely...right?

[adrianlondon]

I've always been led to believe than unless you're a currency trader or have access to zero-commission bank-to-bank exchange rates, just don't bother. If you're going to be staying in China and really believe that the dollar is doing to drop even lower against the RMB, then transfer some cash from the US into a local bank account here.

The UKP (and also the Euro) are too strong right now at a guess, so I wouldn't consider moving anything over there.

A completely just-right-now thought is that people coming to Beijing in 2008 to watch the Olympics might get a shock by how expensive China is. They will assume Beijing prices = China prices. They will pay the laowai price and not know how to bargain. They will pay the extra inflated Olympic price for everything. Then they will return home and tell everyone how expensive China is. Taking advantage of that "publicity", the Chinese government, canny as it is, will use that excuse to drop its currency to help exports.

All IMO, of course, and I'm just an IT geek here in Beijing learning Mandarin as part of an early mid-life crisis. So I'm no expert.

[anonymoose]

How does international money transfer between bank accounts work?

For example, say I'm living in China and have a chinese bank account as well as a bank account in my home country (UK). Could I just transfer £100,000 to my Chinese bank account? And if I wish to transfer it back to the UK again at a later date, how would I go about doing that, considering exporting currency from China is restricted?

Also, since exchange rates are controlled by the Chinese government, I would be getting the official exchange rate from GBP to RMB. But does the exchange rate have a spread on it? What is the difference between the official GBP>RMB and RMB>GBP rates?

I will be moving to China soon, and I'm not sure how long I'll be staying. If I stay for over a year, I would like to buy my own property there, but I would prefer to transfer the cash into RMB sooner rather than later, because if the goverment does decide to revalue the RMB, property prices will instantly become higher if calculated in GBP.

[bhchao]

Here's an article about the impact of the rising yuan on Shenzhen residents: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/HL01Cb03.html

[Quest]

According to the GDP forcast here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_future_GDP_estimates_%28PPP%29

China will be closing in on the US level by 2009 in PPP terms. If China's currency continues to rise, how soon will the nominal GDP converge with the PPP number? By that time China's total GDP in nominal terms will have surpased the US and that will mean per capita GDP will be more than 1/4th of the US level?

Does your experience in China concur with these predictions?

[cdn_in_bj]

From your wikipedia reference:

The differences between PPP and market exchange rates can be significant. For example, the World Bank's World Development Indicators 2005 estimates that one United States dollar is equivalent to approximately 1.8 Chinese yuan by purchasing power parity in 2003. [1]. However, based on nominal exchange rates, one U.S. dollar is currently equal to 7.6 yuan. This discrepancy has large implications; for instance, GDP per capita in the People's Republic of China is about US$1,800 while on a PPP basis it is about US$7,204. This is frequently used to assert that China is the world's second largest economy, but such a calculation would only be valid under the PPP theory. At the other extreme, Japan's nominal GDP per capita is around US$37,600, but its PPP figure is only US$30,615.

I find it very interesting that they note that on a PPP basis the CNY:USD exchange rate is closer to 1.8. I actually find this to be true as well, especially for food, clothes, and even housing/rent (assuming you compare with "tier-1" US cities such as NYC, SF, etc.). However, it is less true for electronics and luxury items such as cars. Actually, since many of the latter are imported, the currently undervalued CNY would play a part in inflating the cost of these types of goods here.

Also, the link referred to by [1] is also a good read:

http://devdata.worldbank.org/wdi2005/Table5_7.htm