Why did birth rates decline so much between 1990 and 1991 in China?

[michaelf]

Birth rates in 1990 were pretty much at the same levels as the 80s and were most likely above replacement level according to stats, but they very jarringly fell well below that level by 1991 and to this day are sub-replacement. Why the sudden drop-off so quickly?

 

http://www.un.org/esa/population/meetings/EGM-Fertility2009/Gu-Cai.pdf

[bjfulyc]

We call the policy as 计划生育（birth control）. In the 1990s,  the policy reached its peak, and our government took much harder restriction ways on birth control.  

 

http://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/%E4%B8%AD%E5%8D%8E%E4%BA%BA%E6%B0%91%E5%85%B1%E5%92%8C%E5%9B%BD%E8%AE%A1%E5%88%92%E7%94%9F%E8%82%B2#1991.E5.B9.B4.E8.87.B32013.E5.B9.B4.EF.BC.9A.E4.B8.80.E7.A5.A8.E5.90.A6.E5.86.B3.E5.88.B6.E5.92.8C.E6.9E.81.E4.BD.8E.E7.94.9F.E8.82.B2.E7.8E.87

[liuzhou]

I needed a rest.

[gato]

Probably because the before and after numbers were based on surveys by different agencies using different methodologies.

[Shelley]

I needed a rest.

 

Hehehehe lol thanks for that, brought a smile to my day.

[li3wei1]

The decision to create a child (if that's how it happens) requires a degree of optimism about the world, and particularly the country, that you'll be bringing it into. Perhaps something happened shortly before the years you're talking about, something that was so catastrophic and frightening, that it dented people's optimism for several years.

[michaelf]

Interesting. So basically family planning became more ardently pursued starting in 1991, combined with stuff that happened a little bit earlier, is the cause?