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Key Insights 1: Can Putin prevail in the ruble crisis?


StChris

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Part 11: questions

 

1 俄罗斯出现问题对中国是个好事。
T or F

2 安居赵女士,这个情况对中国国家利益来讲有什么好处?
A 俄罗斯的两个敌人,美国和俄罗斯,翻脸了
B 随着石油价格降低,中国的进口费用也会降低了很多
C 俄罗斯的军品会降低
D 俄中的贸易额会增长

3 安居赵女士,俄罗斯的民族性格怎么样?
A 爱面子
B 骄傲
C 疑神疑鬼
D 小鸟依人

4 普金已经要求中国援助俄罗斯。
T or F

5 中国有能力把俄罗斯援助起来。
T or F
 

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Ok, so there is a lot of new vocab there. I found that it's not very efficient to try to memorise every single new word you come across, so every episode I will select a maximum of 15 new words, 5 chengyu, 1 grammar-like word/structure, and 5 words more specific to the topic at hand. Doing it this way I find that I really treasure the words I do add to my flashcard deck more, rather than feel the tiresome burden of having to cram another avalanche of new vocab. Of course, feel free to create your own list too. Here are this weeks:

 

General

货币        huo4bi4        currency
暴跌        bao4die1        steep fall, slump
制裁        zhi4cai2        to sanction, to punish
舆论        yu2lun4        public opinion
衰退时        shuai1tui4shi2    economic recession
生产总值    sheng1chan3zong4zhi2    GDP
经济增长率    jing1ji4zeng1zhang3lv4    economic growth rate
外汇储备    wai4hui4chu3bei    foreign reserves
通货膨胀    tong1huo4peng2zhang4    inflation
贬值        bian3zhi2        devalue
供大于求    gong1da4yu2qiu2    supply exceeds demand
酗酒        xu4jiu3        indulge in excessive drinking
量化宽松    liang4hua4kuan1song0    quantitative easing
干预        gan1yu4        to intervene
剖析        pou1xi1        analyse



Chengyu

负债累累    fu4zhai4lei3lei3    heavily in debt
自食其果    zi4shi2qi2guo3    to reap what one sows (eat one's own bitter fruit)
惊慌失措    jing1huang1shi1cuo4        panic-stricken
燃眉之急    ran2mei2zhi1ji2    an extreme emergency
火上浇油    huo3shang4jiao1you2        add fuel to the flames


Grammar

实质上        shi2zhi4shang4    essentially... (getting to the esence of something)
 

Specific

寡头        gua3tou2        oligarch
俄联邦        e2lian2bang1        Russian Federation
多样化        duo1yang4hua4        diversification
金砖国家    jin1zhuan1        BRICS countries
美联储        mei3lian2chu3    US     Federal Reserve
 

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That's it for this weeks folks. I actually have a couple of questions of my own, part language related, part economics related, I hope someone can help:

 

1. At around 4:05 the show has this sentence: 大幅加息650个基点至17% I know that this refers to the interest rate being increased to 17%, but I don't quite understand where the 650 come into it.

 

2. At around 38:50 the show refers to the Russian/Chinese currency swap. How does this benefit both parties? Is it by making both the currencies more stable?

 

Thanks

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Interesting about 基点/basis points, never used in English outside of highly technical contexts. Is it commonly understood in Chinese? I also seem to remember reading an article in one of my textbooks a while back which contained the ‰ symbol, and I didn't know how it should be read in Chinese (in English it'd be “permille”, although you never see or hear it used). “千分之…”?

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As Roddy says, it just means 0.01% and it's used all the time in finance.

 

So for 0.10%, people don't usually say one-10th-of-a-percent, they say 10 basis points, written as 10bp.

 

And is used that way in Chinese:

 

人民币对美元汇率中间价上涨12个基点

印度加息50基点

 

etc etc

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As Roddy says, it just means 0.01% and it's used all the time in finance.

 

 

I'd mention "basis points" about 20 times an hour in my last job (Interest Rate Structurer) . We commonly pronounce it as "bips" and actually rarely say 2.2% usually 220 bips, unless its large but they are in the interest rate world. We deal in short term changes 

 

 

I've never seen interest rates rise by less than 0.25% before, so that's normally considered the "basis point" on UK news programmes, as far as I can tell.

 

 

Thats a Bank of England rate (or commonly know as Base Rate, US call it the discount rate) and moves by 0.25% intervals. The term "bp" is almost exclusively used in live wholesale markets. Consumer banks (i.e. dealing with the everyday Joe) never use it  i.e. mortgages, loans etc

 

 

In FX (Foreign Exchange) they say "pips", but does not mean a %age, means an actual value change, i.e. USDEUR = 1.2000, if it goes to 1.2001 it has moved by "1 pip". Basically the 4th decimal place of the quoted rate

 

Anyway ....

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Russian/Chinese currency swap: am going to have to listen to that section several times to have even half a chance of understanding it.

But in general, with the swap agreement in place, Russia and China can trade without having to use dollars (or euros etc).

Presumably whenever it's used they would normally use that day's regular exchange rate between the ruble and the yuan. But if China wanted to help Russia, it could instead use an exchange rate that values the ruble stronger versus the yuan than it should be.

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yeah but few problems, include

- Credit levels (risk of default -people not paying up) is integral in interest rates swap now. Basically super high for Russia and nobody trusts china (market fears)

i.e. like an insurance policy if Government of Russia default bonds. About 30 times more risky than USA.

- RMB is not deliverable, (i.e. can't cash in and skedaddle with the funds)

- Whole world goes through USD rate, otherwise arbitrage occurs. Just not stated

- China although de-pegged their currency to USA, they put in other restrictions so effectively pegges it back again. Pisses the Americans off

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Thanks everyone.

 

They were at great pains to demonstrate that China wouldn't be screwed over in this deal (as well as the oil and gas deal signed just before the collapse of the ruble). I noticed that they said that Russia would have to pay China back the exact same amount in RMB as the Chinese gave them, plus interest. They made everything sound risk free for China.

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Although the guests couldn't say directly, I think this new "cold war" between the West and Russia can only be a good thing for China. Putin can't afford to fall out with both the West and China, so the Chinese really have the advantage in any negotiations (for oil, gas, water whatever). I also think that Russia has more to fear in the East than the West: a diclining Russia v a resurgent China lacking in resources but bursting at the seams with people, with a sparesly populated and resource rich Siberia between them...

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They were at great pains to demonstrate that China wouldn't be screwed over in this deal (as well as the oil and gas deal signed just before the collapse of the ruble).

I noticed that they said that Russia would have to pay China back the exact same amount in RMB as the Chinese gave them, plus interest.

 

 

Well thats standard market practice

They made everything sound risk free for China.

 

As a general point, not at all! People generally hedge out currency swaps but a deal this size would be virtually impossible. But it could go the other way of course, i,e. out of chinese favor

 

Britain did the same thing with energy supplies from France. They use EUR, Brits use GBP, and agree twice the market price of KW hours as currently trading. They are also open to market exchange rates.  :roll: 

 

I'd agree with your other post. Putin has to be careful but he is indeed a master tactician. Far better than the days of Khrushchev, 

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Ah Putin 加油加油!

 

How can we translate this article:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2015/01/15/euro-crashes-against-swiss-franc/

 

The franc is no longer pegged to the euro. It looks like a Russia vs. EU war, not just a ruble crisis. 

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Angelina, the swiss thing is not linked to Russia (I think it's QE related instead).

 

I agree with the OP about the difficulty of this format: chat shows and TV series with fairly natural dialogue are sooooo much easier. I will put some serious effort into this at some point over the weekend, with all the vocab provided it would be daft not to!

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The swiss thing is related to the EU (they pegged it in order to help the EU back in 2011) and the EU and Russia are not being friendly lately.

 

I wonder if I would be able to express this in Chinese. How to say "the franc is no longer pegged to the euro"? 

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