Why should ethnic minorities in China be allowed to have more children?

[andycmda]

stats showed that Han Chinese population constituted 94% of Chinese population in 1980, more than 92% in 1991, now less than 91%.

If the current trend continues, Han population will become minorities in some provinces like GuiZhou and YunNan sooner or later (they have already become minority in the age 0-4 newborns). Those poor places like the remote mountain areas where many ethnic minorities live in GuiZhou, families have like average of 4 children where in the privincial capital GuiYang where most Hans live, pepole are only allowed to have 1 child.

GuiZhou province is only one example ethnic minority population is exploding while Han population is replacing itself.

So basically, the one child policy had made this happen: the poorer you are, the more children you have and the more children you have, the poorer you get. Then the city population is shrinking and not enough labor force is created so massive migration from poor rural areas is taking place and those peasant labors are helping the Chinese economy by means of cheap labor.

So let me ask you, which part of the world has the lowest birth rate? and what's the number of births per thousand?

[joe_stone]

what you said is truth,the relation between different ethnic groups is kind of subtle.

[skylee]

So what would you suggest the Chinese do?

So let me ask you, which part of the world has the lowest birth rate? and what's the number of births per thousand?

Hong Kong. (But since you asked such a specific question, I guess you already knew the answer.)

From the CIA world fact book ->

Birth rate: 7.23 births/1,000 population (2005 est.)

Total fertility rate: 0.91 children born/woman (2005 est.)

Relevant news report -> http://www.thestandard.com.hk/stdn/std/Front_Page/GD27Aa01.html

Comparison of birth rate by country -> http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?t=0&v=25

[andycmda]

So what would you suggest the Chinese do?

Hong Kong. (But since you asked such a specific question' date=' I guess you already knew the answer.)

From the CIA world fact book ->

Birth rate: 7.23 births/1,000 population (2005 est.)

Total fertility rate: 0.91 children born/woman (2005 est.)

Relevant news report -> http://www.thestandard.com.hk/stdn/std/Front_Page/GD27Aa01.html

Comparison of birth rate by country -> http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?t=0&v=25

No! It's the city of shanghai, only 4.8 births per 1000 population.

[gato]

No! It's the city of shanghai, only 4.8 births per 1000 population.

Probably because among the migrants, there are many more men than women.

[andycmda]

Probably because among the migrants, there are many more men than women.

no, it's because of successful implementation of one child policy in that city, so 100% of children are the only children or twins. So Shanghai's natural population growth has been negative for the past 10 years.

In Beijing, TianJing, the birth rate is 7 per 1000.

All big cities in China have low birth rates because of strict family planning policy, while families have average of 2 kids in rural areas and some ethnic minorities can have 3 or 4 children. That's why China's population is still growing.

[skylee]

No! It's the city of shanghai, only 4.8 births per 1000 population.

As I said, you asked the question but you already knew the answer. But could you show/tell us the source of the data please?

And what would you suggest the Chinese do?

(BTW, good to hear that Hong Kong is not the worst )

So let me ask you, which part of the world has the lowest birth rate?

If we break it down to cities, some say that the Vatican City has the lowest birth rate in the world.

[wushijiao]

no, it's because of successful implementation of one child policy in that city, so 100% of children are the only children or twins. So Shanghai's natural population growth has been negative for the past 10 years.

Certainly, the "One Child Policy" is partly to blame for such low birth rates. But I think a bigger reason is that Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong have modern economies based on knowledge and information. People work long hours trying to develop their careers. Raising 2+ children doesn't give parents any huge financial rewards, unlike in agricultural societies. Europe and cities like New York also have low birth rate, something like 1.2 kids per woman. The major cities in China are also in a similar place. It costs an unbelievable amount of money to raise a kid, especially if you want to provide the best for your child. I aksed many young Shanghaiese people how many children they plan to have. Most answer one or two or even zero. Almost nobody says three or more.

Also, an interesting side effect of the "One Child Policy" is that it has actually made many ethnic minorities less cohesive. From what I have read, the giving ethnic minorities an exception to have more children was done in good faith by the Hans, after nearly ruining lots of their cultures during the Cultural Revolution. But in many rural areas Hans who had status or wealth married ethnic minorities so that they could have more children. For some ethnic minorities, this weakened and diluted many of their cultures, according to some.

Then the city population is shrinking and not enough labor force is created so massive migration from poor rural areas is taking place and those peasant labors are helping the Chinese economy by means of cheap labor.

I agree. This is a serious problem. I think if China is in the midst of creating a caste system.

[Taibei]

But in many rural areas Hans who had status or wealth married ethnic minorities so that they could have more children.

Or paid off local officials so they could be reclassified as the member of an ethnic minority. (A friend of mine, the daughter of one of these officials, told me about this practice.) Keep in mind that in many rural areas the lines between groups are not always clear, despite what government classifications might state. Indeed, there were cases after 1949 in which the authorities declared certain groups to be minorities, not Han, against the objections of the people themselves.

In recent years in Taiwan, some aboriginal groups have recently been "discovered." They weren't hiding in the forests. Rather, they were groups gradually assimilated by the Han population. Whether the descendents of these people are in any way culturally distinct is another matter.

[andycmda]

well, all major cities in China have less than 1 kid per woman because one child policy has been thoroughly implemented so there can be no way for any parents to have two kids unless the kids are twins. The city of Shanghai has 0.8 kid per woman, Tokyo has 0.9 kids per woman, what other metropolitan areas can you find that have even less than 0.8 child per woman? hardly any.

Some Hans want to marry minorities because it's a legal way to have more than one child. I think the system is ridicolous.

[sui.generis]

So basically' date=' the one child policy had made this happen: [b']the poorer you are, the more children you have and the more children you have, the poorer you get[/b]. Then the city population is shrinking and not enough labor force is created so massive migration from poor rural areas is taking place and those peasant labors are helping the Chinese economy by means of cheap labor.

I could count on one hand the number of beijing policies I approve of, but could you tell me where in the world the rich have more (or as many) children than the poor? Could you list some developed countries with birth rates comprable to some 3rd world nations? Affluence, in whatever degree, has a tendency to breed, well.... less.

Also, massive migration from the rural areas might have something to do with people not wanting to be, well, dirt poor. I haven't noticed a lot labor shortages in cities recently, but there sure are a lot of people collecting bottles, and even college grads here aren't guarunteed to be employed, much less employed at the level of their qualifications.

Why should ethinic minorities be allowed to have more children? Well personally, I abhor the idea of telling anyone they aren't allowed to make their own choices on the matter, but a one child policy for a small minority group would be tantamount to genocide, if enforced. Beijing is picking it's battles.

[Harpoon]

Why should ethinic minorities be allowed to have more children? Well personally' date=' I abhor the idea of telling anyone they aren't allowed to make their own choices on the matter, but a one child policy for a small minority group would be tantamount to genocide, if enforced. Beijing is picking it's battles.[/quote']

huh? so is beijing just being nice because they want to preserve the minorities? that doesn't sound very beijing-ish to me..

[sui.generis]

huh? so is beijing just being nice because they want to preserve the minorities? that doesn't sound very beijing-ish to me..

I tend to agree, however, I never said Beijing was trying to be nice. Reread that last sentence. This is quite simply a tactical overview, and Beijing, while fighting battle after battle regarding rights and treatment can fairly easily disclude minorities (with whom enforcement wouldn't be all that easy anyway, and the effects of successful enforcement wouldn't be met with equal results) from the one child policy, whereas, if they didn't, those battles would be taken to a whole other level titled 'opposition to genocide'.

Since there's little to no upside in applying it to minorities, and incredibly contentious territory in doing so, they opt not to, ergo Beijing is picking its battles

[Harpoon]

ah, so everyone would be aware of the genocide issue and it would be used against Beijing, got it

[Guest DaisyLondon]

>>I could count on one hand the number of beijing policies I approve of, but could you tell me where in the world the rich have more (or as many) children than the poor? Could you list some developed countries with birth rates comprable to some 3rd world nations? Affluence, in whatever degree, has a tendency to breed, well..

Yes as people get wealthier they tend to have less children. This happens very clearly in India where in the wealthies areas, the abortion rates are much higher than the poor areas and the birth rate much lower.

BUT There are some trends in the West which will take time to show on macro figures.For example, amongst wealthy people in the UK and France it is a status symbol to have more children, say 4. In the UK there are also now government measures to make chilldcare more affordable, working times more family friendly etc which may have an impact on the masses's birth rate.

[大肚子]

The one child policy is on its last legs anyway, at least in the cities. The time is rapidly approaching (if not already here) when it ceases to make economic sense. Nobody wants the nightmare scenario of child supporting parents and grandparents. Already 2 one-child children can have 2 children and Jilin, Shanghai and Hainan have scrapped the 4 year waiting period for a second child. I'm pretty sure the CCP will loosen the policy within the next decade and scrap it within the next 20. As long as healthcare, education and housing continue to be so expensive, and working hours so long, there's not going to be any rush towards huge families in the cities.

[盤古]

As more and more people in China get wealthier, young couples will start to not want children as they may cripple their luxurious lifestyle. This trend can already be seen in more developed European countries today.

[andycmda]

I think having no children at all is a dangerous trend in the developed world and the average quality of world's future generation will keep getting worse as more and more children are born in less developed areas and fewer and fewer babies are born from more developed areas and more educated families.

Well, It's probably the first time in history many countries in the world have record low birth rate. The traditional family structure has gone and people become more Liberal.

Well, with better healthcare and medicine like never before, the 20th century has seen quadrupled population explosion. Before, overpopulation was compromised by war and famine. But with most of the world in peace during the second half of 20th century. Overpopulation is a concern. Therfore, the less birth rate seen in developed countries and China is a way to keep the population level stable for sustained development in the future which is a good thing. But not all countries are like that. Most of the countries in the world are still poor and population is still increasing at a rapid rate. In the future, we will see more and more massive invasion of people from less developed countries to more developed countries that suffer labor shortage and aging population problems. (A good example is the illegal aliens from Mexico and central America crossing US border illegally to get low paid job in US -- which has created controversies and debates in US politics) the imbalanced population growth rate in the world will create severe demographic and economic problems in the world in near future.