Two-child policy

[Guest realmayo]

Now it's a two-child policy! As part of the new five-year plan:

 

促进人口均衡发展，坚持计划生育的基本国策，完善人口发展战略，全面实施一对夫妇可生育两个孩子政策，积极开展应对人口老龄化行动。

http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2015-10/29/c_1116982932.htm

 

I liked the Bloomberg article http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-29/china-abandons-three-decade-old-one-child-policy-to-lift-growth which pointed out: Shares of Danone, one of the world’s biggest producers of baby formula, rose as much as 3 percent to the highest since April on the news.

[Shelley]

Is that because they are really worried about the large imbalance of men to women that is going to happen in the next few years?

 

From what I understand its as much as 3 boys for every girl, they are worried that the "little emperors" are not going to have any wives.

 

In fact I read this the other day   http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/peoplesdaily/article-3291985/Chinese-economics-professor-suggests-country-s-poorest-men-SHARE-wives.html

 

Maybe they hope that people will be happy to have a boy and a girl.

[Lu]

Is that because they are really worried about the large imbalance of men to women that is going to happen in the next few years?

That's probably part of it, but changing the policy now is not going to have an effect on the marriage market for at least 20 years. And even if the sex ratio evens out from tomorrow on, that still leaves a whole generation of men with a lack of wives. It's not like in 2035 young girls can't wait to finally marry that 45-year-old subsistence farmer.

[Shelley]

Thats true Lu, its going to be tough for a while.

 

I have heard that there have been raiding parties in to the countryside and buying/stealing young girls to marry off to city boys, not sure if that is true but it sounds plausible.

[Angelina]

Should we start importing milk? Even if the baby boom is not that massive, it's still China. I am starting to have some business ideas/life plans [chuckle].

What's wrong with subsistence farmers Lu? I hope there are more dairy farms in China. Not to mention fresh fruit and vegetables.

Good news!

[Lu]

What's wrong with subsistence farmers Lu?

Nothing wrong with 45-year-old subsistence farmers, or any subsistence farmers, they're just not the most attractive marriage candidates for most women. They're the kind of men who end up lifelong singles because of the shortage of women.

[Flickserve]

This is good news for China for a number of long term economic reasons and I think we'll see a baby boom for those ladies between the ages of 35-45. Is the rule unrestricted or are there certain conditions attached?

To maintain population parity, you would need 2 to 3 per family.

[Silent]

 

Is that because they are really worried about the large imbalance of men to women that is going to happen in the next few years?

I think it's primarily due to economic considerations. With only one child they're going to have a very hard time to support the retired people. Growing population also helps the economy as it implies larger demand and larger labor force.

[Tianjin42]

I don't hold back in my criticism of the Chinese authorities but on the one-child policy I do think that there is occasionally unfair criticism. I don't defend some of the grotesque enforcement strategies like forced abortion (or the uneven implementation) but I do think that one can at least understand how the policy was arrived at (some estimates suggest the population would be 300 to 400 million higher now without it). 

 

Given the demographic trends, it is wise to loosen this but I think we won't see as much of a baby boom as expected. The market (in the cities) has grown around having one child and that means it is too expensive for some parents to have another. I guess more rural areas might see most significant increases pro-rata. 

 

You can tell things are looking bad in terms of demographics when a senior Chinese professor is discussing wife sharing!

 

But ultimately it is good news. Good luck to all the young couples who, if they wish, can look forward to having a second child without punishment. 

[skylee]

There will be pressure on supply of baby formula etc, worldwide. We expect empty shelves in drug stores here and angry/aggrieved mothers who can't get enough baby formula. Mainland people like to buy these things outside Mainland China.

And many Mainland mothers will leave Mainland China to give birth …

[imron]

There will be pressure on supply of baby formula etc, worldwide

Hence the reason the share price of Danone rose.

[Flickserve]

There will be pressure on supply of baby formula etc, worldwide. We expect empty shelves in drug stores here and angry/aggrieved mothers who can't get enough baby formula. Mainland people like to buy these things outside Mainland China.

And many Mainland mothers will leave Mainland China to giv birth …

I think yes, for the first five years and then it will settle down. Not everyone will choose to have a second child even if they can.

As for going abroad, well don't they do that anyway if they have the economic means? I have one person on my wechat in China who has a brother and sister and they range from 15-25 years old. Before HK closed off itself to mainland mothers delivering in HK, you could see a number of 35+ years olds going for their 2nd child after a 12 year gap!

[skylee]

And over here many of us choose no child at all. It is just too expensive here. And many people don't want their children grow up with Communist(-tainted) education but don't have the means to go elsewhere. So the easy way out is not to have any. With 150 migrants from Mainland China daily (many of low income group who are eligible for welfare money), we will soon be completely colonised again. Haha.

[Flickserve]

Well, the history of Hong Kong is littered with migration inwards. Once the second generation grows up, they become considered HKers. The only issue now is fewer HK people emigrate than before and so promotion prospects are fewer.

 

A fair proportion people cannot say they have had 4 previous generations of family in HK.

[Chris Two Times]

Mo Children. Mo Problems.

 

Warm regards,

Chris Two Times

[jbradfor]

As countries get richer and more educated, the birth rate does down "naturally".  So given China's current economic status, this really comes as not surprise.  They already loosed it recently anyway.

 

On NPR this afternoon, they had an interview with a demographic "expert" who stated that without the one child policy, China's population would have stabilized at 1.6 billion anyway.  Given how quickly China's economy grew, that's quite possible.  Of course, 35 years ago, when the policy was first started, very few people really expected China to have the sustained economic growth it has had.

[Chris Two Times]

Is Deng Xiaoping rolling in his grave right about now?

 

Warm regards,

Chris Two Times

[imron]

Why would he be?

[Chris Two Times]

Just wondering out loud if he ever imagined the China of 2015 back in 1980...

 

Warm regards,

Chris Two Times

[eliaso]

Funny how this is front page news internationally and in the meantime in China nobody seems to care all that much.

 

I was yesterday in a 烧烤 place I often go to eat alone and chit chat with the owners. Saw the news about two-child policy on my phone and immediately told one of the owners that "Hey, have you heard! They ended one-child policy!". Her reply was just "Huh, really? Who wants to have more than one anyway, 太麻烦". Then it was back to watching some comedy series on tv.