The growing automobile culture

[wushijiao]

In my opinion, one of the worst things about living in the US is that you unavoidably have to live in a automobile-oriented culture, with the exception of New York, San Fran and a few other cities. For the most part, you are stranded without a car. This is usually not the case in many places in Europe.

Although China's population density is more similar to Europe's, it seems that China is blindly following the American public transport model. Also, car prices have also fallen dramatically, with some cars costing about 40,000RMB.

Here is a New York Times article public transport and the emerging car culture in Shanghai:

As people in this richest of Chinese cities have grown more and more affluent, they have displayed an American-style passion for the automobile. But for Shanghai, as for much of China, getting rich and growing attached to cars have increasingly gone hand in hand, and have produced side effects familiar in cities that have long been addicted to automobiles - from filthy air and stressful, marathon commutes to sharply rising oil consumption.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/12/international/asia/12china.html?hp

Any thoughts? Any thoughts on the future of public transport in China?

[wix]

A sobering fact to keep in mind is that if people in China owned and used cars as much as people in the USA (on a per capita basis) then China would consume the world's entire oil production.

At some time in the near future we will see world oil production peak -- the phenomena known as "peak oil". Some would argue it is happening now, but it will certainly be some time in the next twenty years. Peak oil doesn't mean that we will run out of oil. It just means that we will use it faster than we can discover new reserves. From an economic point of view it means demand will outstrip supply. This is the reason oil prices are going up at the moment.

For China, and the rest of the world, it raises a lot of questions. In particular whether China can continue to build highways and promote car ownership. All this investment occurs at the expense of public transport.

[bhchao]

Seems like the situation in Shanghai is starting to resemble the car culture in LA, where it's impossible to get around without a car. At least Shanghai has a usable subway system. This is unlike LA where the subway system is non-existent due to the urban sprawl and the lack of an urban center. Here the automobile is king, being the major contributor to the city's air pollution. One thing I despise and look down on LA is that people are using their cars to boost their own image or personality. The car culture here is helping define the city's superficiality.

These are just some of the reasons why I much prefer New York. The subway is virtually the transportation lifeline there, contributing to the city's "hustle and bustle".

Taipei is known for its notorious traffic congestion, as I remembered while living there during the early 80's. Based on what I heard, the traffic conditions there have slightly improved ever since the introduction of the MRT system.

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[wushijiao]

For China, and the rest of the world, it raises a lot of questions. In particular whether China can continue to build highways and promote car ownership. All this investment occurs at the expense of public transport.

I agree; China should emphasize public transport over private transport. I guess China, like Korea and Japan, wants to be a global leader in the car industry sometime in the future (5-10 years). From this line of reasoning, promoting domestic car consumption seems smart.

One thing I despise and look down on LA is that people are using their cars to boost their own image or personality. The car culture here is helping define the city's superficiality.

From my travels, it seems that whenever an area's urban planning is built around cars, the result is always the same blah suburbia, with the same mini-malls and ugly street signs, a bit like LA.

An interesting book that I read a few years back is called, "Divorice your Car!"

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0865714088/qid=1121157508/sr=8-1/ref=pd_bbs_ur_1/103-2602160-7425422?v=glance&s=books&n=507846

The book talks about how, among other things, the aesthetic beauty of pedestrian malls compared to the hideously ugly signs that are next to freeways and highways, mainly because a sign needs to be huge if you are going to see it at 100kph. The book also talks about the benefits of using your bike as the primary use of transport, including, weight loss, increased endurance, cost savings, and less pollution. I suppose national enegry independence is another benefit of biking. Fight the "terrerists" and ride your bike to work!

[snarfer]

I lived in LA for 3 years without owning a car, bicycling everywhere. Strangely enough I found it easier to bicycle around LA than Beijing. However, especially with the coming expansion of the subway system, I feel that Beijing will not succumb to the car culture trap. At least I hope so.

[Outofin]

It's not only about oil, because we will eventually turn to alternative energy sources and it's happening now. It's about life style. Streets are for walking, not for driving. Americans seem not to get it. NY is a city. Other american "cities" are not cities. They are super-sized villages.

[gato]

NY is a city. Other american "cities" are not cities. They are super-sized villages.

Not even that. They are super-sized suburbs. Calling them village make them sound like they are walkable, which they are not. Many places in the US (LA, Florida) don't even have sidewalks.

One saving grace for Chinese cities is people are still. At a median income of US$100/month, many people can't afford cars, even the cut-rate Chinese-made ones. Chinese cities also already exist, unlike many Americans ones which were built during the rise of the automobile. They would have to be revamped substantially to be navigable by private automobiles. LA, by contrast, had a population of only 11000 in 1880 and still only 60000 in as of 1890.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20040918/news_1n18transit.html

Traffic-choked L.A. a model for future of mass transit?

Car ownership in Los Angeles, known as "the car capital of the world," is 1.44 per household, according to the 2000 Census. That is lower than a number of other cities, including San Diego (1.65) and Phoenix (1.61).

[gato]

From the NYTimes.com article:

Even interim traffic estimates here have fallen far short. Two years ago, the city government rushed orders for the construction of a new, elevated loop expressway for central Shanghai, because other elevated expressways were already saturated at peak hours. "Just one year after some roads were completed, they reached vehicle flow volumes that were forecast for 15 to 20 years from now," said Yang Dongyuan, a professor at the School of Transportation Engineering and vice president of Tongji University.

These elevated expressways are horrific. They make life very difficult and even dangerous for pedestrians. The city of New York tried to build an expressway through Greenwich Village, the heart of Manhattan, back in the 1960s. It was only through the protests of community members and activists that Greenwich Village, and thereby Manhattan, was saved.

Meanwhile, the city is expanding its subway grid well beyond the 310 miles of track first planned. Two new lines are being added to the original 15, along with another 192 miles of track. Even so, the subway system, gleaming and clean though it is, is one area where traffic has failed to meet projections, with less than half the expected ridership on some lines. The reason, experts say, is that there are not enough trains, resulting in overcrowding, which further encourages people to ride in cars.

Hmm. The ridership is below projection, but the overcrowded trains are overcrowded. Sounds paradoxical. Maybe the government spent money for trains on those expressways instead?

Take a look at government spending and regulations. I think we'll find much there that promotes the "car culture."

[bhchao]

The city of New York tried to build an expressway through Greenwich Village, the heart of Manhattan, back in the 1960s. It was only through the protests of community members and activists that Greenwich Village, and thereby Manhattan, was saved.

Imagine what that expressway would have done to the Village had it been given the green light. The life of the neighborhood would have been destroyed since the expressway would have cut across the entire width of Manhattan from the Hudson to the East River, destroying many historic structures in the Village and the neighborhood of Soho. It would have wiped out the urban fabric in those areas where walking is the primary mode of transportation.

Manhattan almost lost Grand Central too to the wrecking ball during the 1960's. Developers wanted to demolish it and place an office tower on the site. Thanks to the opposition of Mrs. Kennedy and other NYC activists, the battle was taken all the way to the Supreme Court, and the development plan was defeated. Today Grand Central is a bustling subway hub for Manhattan where you can easily travel to the outer boroughs without ever driving a car.

[outcast]

I think that this is a bad trend in China. I believe that this actually present s China with a golden opportunity that the Americans are squandering. The opportunity is to develop the infrastructure to support hydrogen fueled cars.

[ala]

Seems like the situation in Shanghai is starting to resemble the car culture in LA' date=' where it's impossible to get around without a car. At least Shanghai has a usable subway system. This is unlike LA where the subway system is non-existent due to the urban sprawl and the lack of an urban center. Here the automobile is king, being the major contributor to the city's air pollution. One thing I despise and look down on LA is that people are using their cars to boost their own image or personality. The car culture here is helping define the city's superficiality.

These are just some of the reasons why I much prefer New York. The subway is virtually the transportation lifeline there, contributing to the city's "hustle and bustle".[/quote']

Not at all. Shanghai's city proper is very concentrated (the entire city proper is about 10-15km wide). The vast majority get around by bus and rail transit and taxis, most of the cars on the street are taxis. Shanghai IS like NYC.

[大肚子]

I would say that most Chinese cities fall somewhere in the middle, not as bad as LA, not as good as London (though London has made its own fair share of mistakes, Euston Road and Park "Lane" spring to mind). One thing that really irks me about transport policy here in China, though, is the complete disregard for pedestrians both in planning and transport regulations. Please, could someone put in pedestrian crossings that actually do something more than act like those duck shooting booths in fairgrounds, and stop allowing cars to turn right at red lights. Policies like these are what cause people to flee into their cars, causing the exact same problems Western cities are no desperately struggling to overcome.

[gato]

Chinese cities should start implementing "bus only" lanes. They work very well in Taipei.

Here's article about the new bus system in Mexico City, which has one of the worst air pollution problem in the world. Or at least it used to. Maybe the Chinese cities have taken over.

http://nytimes.com/2005/07/15/international/americas/15mexico.html?8hpib

By separating the bus from the rest of the traffic, the idea goes, the bus travels more quickly, luring some commuters from their cars. Taking the lawless minibuses off the streets reduces congestion and lets the traffic flow more freely. The intended result is fast, orderly public transportation, fewer traffic jams and lower emissions.

Mexico City's Metrobus consists of 80 double-length articulated buses that travel along 12 miles each way of dedicated lanes along Insurgentes, one of the city's most congested streets. To speed up boarding, riders pass their fare card through a turnstile as they enter special stations built along the median and then step onto the bus from a raised platform.

"Our system costs a tenth" of what a subway would cost, said Dr. Lee Schipper, research director of Embarq, the World Resources Institute's Center for Transport and the Environment, which helped Mexico City develop the system. He estimates that 50 cities in the world are constructing or studying some version of the system. In Bogotá, Colombia, the most extensive Latin American experiment so far, 750,000 people a day travel on the new bus lines.

[bhchao]

I hope the air quality in many Chinese cities are not as bad as in LA, which used to have horrendous air quality during the 1980's. The smog is still there, but not as bad as it was during the 80's. Due to its distinction of being the car capital of the world, LA has the most stringent emissions control program in the nation (perhaps the world).

Despite these measures, LA and Houston sometimes alternate yearly in taking the crown for worst air in the U.S.

If it was not for my current job, I wouldn't even bother living in LA.

Chinese cities should start implementing "bus only" lanes. They work very well in Taipei.

I agree that "bus only" lanes could alleviate some of the traffic congestions. Also buses that run on clean fuel will help reduce urban air pollution.

A sobering fact to keep in mind is that if people in China owned and used cars as much as people in the USA (on a per capita basis) then China would consume the world's entire oil production.

At some time in the near future we will see world oil production peak -- the phenomena known as "peak oil". Some would argue it is happening now, but it will certainly be some time in the next twenty years. Peak oil doesn't mean that we will run out of oil. It just means that we will use it faster than we can discover new reserves. From an economic point of view it means demand will outstrip supply. This is the reason oil prices are going up at the moment.

The reason why oil prices are going up at the moment is partly attributed to China's huge thirst for energy supplies, which is putting a strain on the current world oil supply. Of course the US is also contributing to this current dilemma, but within a couple years down the road, China will surpass the US as the world's biggest energy consumer.

Self-reliance in this case would be great. A good first step would be to put more emphasis on public transportation, instead of building more highways to accomodate the automobile. As wushijiao put it, divorce your car!

[Outofin]

If everyone wants a single family house, cities will inevitablly grow too large to be covered by public transportations. Housing determines transportaion. I see no solution to this.

[gato]

If everyone wants a single family house, cities will inevitablly grow too large to be covered by public transportations. Housing determines transportaion. I see no solution to this.

Part of the solution is in giving people a choice. Many cities in the US have laws that ban apartment buildings or buildings taller than 2 or 3 stories. Existing home owners support these laws because they limit housing supply and prop up property value, but they are detrimental to everyone else in some sense. It would be a good start if we can change these laws and allow taller buildings to be built where they make economic sense.

[bhchao]

If everyone wants a single family house, cities will inevitably grow too large to be covered by public transportations. Housing determines transportation. I see no solution to this.

Public transportation would only make sense in cities where growth is vertical (like Manhattan), not horizontal (like LA, which is not really a city). In other words, public transportation would only make sense where there is a concentrated urban center like Shanghai's, which ala described.

Taller commercial buildings would only make economic sense when you have a surrounding public transportation infrastructure. For example, the former World Trade Center in New York was an important factor contributing to the economic vitality of Lower Manhattan because all the southbound subway lines leading to Downtown ended at the World Trade Center or around it. Also you had ferries transporting office workers from New Jersey to the WTC. Without this transportation system, there would be no sense in building a WTC in the first place.

[wix]

I came across this interesting article entitled "Red Road Rising" in The Ecologist March 2005. It is available online, but I think you need to subscribe to the site (for free) to access it. I will paste a few good quotes from the article below.

In 1990 there were just 1 million cars on Chinese roads. 14 years later that number has rapidly risen to 12 million, and this year alone a further 2.4 million new cars will be added.

In itself, that’s a lot of new cars, but the figures take on an altogether greater significance when you realise where this trend might lead. Currently China still only has eight vehicles per thousand residents, whereas Brazil has 122, countries in western Europe have an average of 584, and in the US there are a massive 940 cars for every thousand residents. As Chinese environmentalist Liang Congjie says: ‘If each Chinese family has two cars like US families, then the cars needed by China, something like 600 million vehicles, will exceed all the cars in the world combined. That would be the greatest disaster for mankind.’

Just like General Motors, [Ford] has stated its belief that by 2025 China will surpass the US (where 17 million vehicles are sold per year) as the largest car market in the world. The government in Beijing agrees: it estimates that by 2020, there will be 140 million vehicles on China’s road. To meet this demand, China has been feverishly laying asphalt. Once completed, its planned new highways will cover an area equivalent to four equatorial laps around the earth. The consequences of this will be far-reaching. Paving 20,000 hectares of agricultural land (the road area needed for a million cars) reduces grain production by 80,000 tonnes. Yet China’s agricultural imports increased by 63 per cent during the first half of 2004 to a record half-year agricultural trade deficit of $3.73 billion. For a country where arable land is already in short supply, any reduction in agricultural land will have devastating consequences.

[gato]

A little about the low energy efficiency in China.

http://www.isn.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?ID=9951

To generate every US$1 of GDP, China uses three times or more as much energy as the global average, 4.7 times higher than in the U.S., 7.7 times higher than in Germany and 11.5 times higher than in Japan.

Yet the country is building one of the most extensive highway infrastructures on earth to replace its one billion bicycles with cars. In 1999, only 220’000 vehicles were sold. Last year, the number was 2.04 million, with a 69 per cent sales growth and an 80.7 per cent production increase year-on-year. With 24 million cars in 2003, the People's Republic is projected to have 56.69 million private automobiles by 2010 and 130 million by 2020.

Oil consumed in transportation will account for half of the total oil consumption. Thus China will not only rival the US in overall national strength in a few decades, but it will also have the most number of cars - that is if such a growth can be sustained.

Last year at this time, Beijing's traffic authorities were busy setting up a special unit to cope with more than 300’000 new drivers who were about to begin their first winter on the slippery city highways. But China's obsession with cars has led to more than traffic jams and higher pollution levels. According to UPI Energy Watch, the annual average fuel consumption per car in China is 2.28 tons, 10 to 20 per cent higher than the US and 100 per cent higher than Japan.

Going beyond cars, consumer goods such as air-conditioning, refrigerators and other electronic gadgets are all growing at an unprecedented rate. No wonder energy has become a bottleneck for the Chinese economy in recent years: factories are forced to take night shifts to avoid peak consumption times or their power supply is cut off altogether; all major cities experience power shortages on a regular basis; rationed supply of electricity is imposed in the summer time and power cuts have become common phenomena; even the decorative lights on the skyscrapers along the Yangtze River in Shanghai's tourist center had to be dimmed to conserve power this summer.

[bhchao]

This thread sparked my interest in reading The Death and Life of Great American Cities, written by Jane Jacobs, the woman who led NYC community activists in the fight against the Lower Manhattan Expressway, and won. She is still alive in her 90's and currently living in Toronto. Neighborhoods like SoHo, the Village, and TriBeCa are able to flourish today because of her efforts.

Ironically it took an earthquake to bring down the two-level Embarcadero Freeway in San Francisco in '89. SF residents battled successfully to bring down the freeway altogether rather than repair the damage. Today the Embarcadero is a popular thoroughfare lined with pubs and upscale waterfront restaurants.

Currently there is a battle between historic preservationists and highway proponents over the controversial 710 freeway extension in LA. The proposed extension would raze more than a thousand historic homes in South Pasadena. It would displace hundreds of residents just for the sake of allowing highway commuters to connect to another freeway.

Personally I find strip malls surrounded by asphalt parking lots disgusting and totally symbolic of sprawl. Walmart is a perfect example of how developers construct a brand-new Walmart building in the middle of nowhere, fill the surrounding area with asphalt to accomodate thousands of parking spaces, and as a result congest surface streets with commuters lining up in their cars waiting to enter those parking lots.

In NYC, new retail businesses are opened in historic buildings that are preserved or renovated. Everything is easily accessible to pedestrian foot traffic and subway. Urban studies have shown that stores in dense urban areas attract more business from foot traffic than stores attracting automobile customers in suburban sprawl.