The growing automobile culture

[bhchao]

How do people get from the 2nd Ring to the 3rd Ring if there is no subway line connecting the two? (correct me if I'm wrong)

I'm not familiar with the layout of Beijing, but would it make sense to build lines that run across Rings and enable you to hop on connections, rather than have a line that goes in a complete circle?

[roddy]

We walk

Line 1 runs between the second and third ring road east west - Guomao to Jianguomen and Fuxingmen to Gongzhufen. There's currently nothing north-south, although Line 13 runs second ring to fourth - Xizhimen to Dazhongsi (?) The second and third ring roads aren't that far apart - near where I live I'd guess it's a 20 minute walk, maybe 4 or so bus stops.

Roddy

[gougou]

How do people get from the 2nd Ring to the 3rd Ring if there is no subway line connecting the two? (correct me if I'm wrong)

That is, in terms of riding the subway, not relevant yet, as the line following the third ring is not completed yet. As far as I know, the next line to start operations will be a north-south connection right through the center of Beijing (intersecting at Yonghegong and Chongwenmen (Circle Line) and Dongdan (east-west axis.))

[gato]

The Xizhimen 西直门 subway station, at the northwestern corner of the 2nd ring, is about 3.8km (2.4 miles) away from the 3rd Ring Road to the west and 2.5km (1.6 miles) from the 3rd Ring to the north.

See the attached picture from a map software.

I think most people take the bus to get to the subway stations as the walking distance is too far in most places. Around many of the subway stations, there still seems to be a lack of high density residential housing. My guess is that it's because much of the land is government-owned and cannot be easily developed. I see a lot more high-rise apartment building outside the 3rd Ring and in the northeast suburbs of Beijing. It seems counter-intuitive that there would be more high rises as you get away from the center until you consider the ownership issue.

By the way, I've noticed that none of the printed Beijing maps I've seen in the mainland provides a scale to indicate distance. Weird.

[Outofin]

China is now the 2nd largest car market in the world.

[gato]

The number of automobiles in Beijing increased by 15% to 2.6 million last year.

http://news.thebeijingnews.com/0194/2006/0120/013@156288.htm

副市长吉林表示，今年春运高峰期北京市交通也正处在拥堵期间，去年北京市机动车增长了38万辆，机动车总量已达到258万辆，由于新车增加使得北京交通近来比较拥堵，加上春运的高峰，使得北京的交通压力将更大。

[bhchao]

Jane Jacobs, the urban preservationist icon who wrote The Death and Life of Great American Cities, died today. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060425/ap_en_ot/obit_jane_jacobs

Without her activism and support for transit-oriented development, there would be a north-south highway running through the middle of Manhattan today, destroying whole neighborhoods like the Village, SoHo, and Chinatown.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/25/books/25cnd-jacobs.html?pagewanted=1&ei=5094&en=c74b882dbb18bb74&hp&ex=1146024000&partner=homepage

[Long Zhiren]

bhchao,

You certainly get some interesting topics going around here.

A few thoughts came to mind while wading through the thread here.

(1) Taipei's MRT is quite a phenomenon. It's still expanding. People in Taipei are starting to get rid of their cars because the MRT works so well.

(2) Mainland's got some weird things happening. That large fraction of its population that's not in urban centers is very very poor and very very unemployed; and prevented from migrating to the cities. Those 40,000 RMB cars will still be totally unaffordable to them.

(3) Mainland's gasoline prices are about the same as US gasoline prices minus the usual 25+% in taxes. They're also about the same as European gasoline prices minus the usual 400+% in taxes. The latter really keeps auto mayhem under wraps. It is what I believe should happen in the US. I imagine that it should be fairly easy to do if you're not paid off by lobbyists all the time, of which prominent US politicians are all guilty. I have a bad feeling that mainland politicians are following the US example but have more power to turn things around.

(4) Back in 1994, it seemed that mainland driving was restricted to professionals, government people and people with connections. Somehow, I doubt if this core will ever be kept back, especially the latter two groups who like to show off their prominence in society.

(5) Mainland's train service could still be improved quite a bit; and make roadtrips by auto almost unnecessary.

[ord100]

Instead of mass transit, 500 car manufacturers have built capacity to manufacture up to 8 million cars/year in china... with up top 12 million capacity forecast by the end of decade (http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/mar2006/pi20060320_432455.htm?chan=globalbiz_asia_companies).

It is possible/desirable to live without a car in the cities of Boston, New York, Chicago, Philadelphia... but hard in rest of country.

[wushijiao]

Instead of mass transit, 500 car manufacturers have built capacity to manufacture up to 8 million cars/year in china... with up top 12 million capacity forecast by the end of decade

Good stuff. This growing car culture is also forcing China to become more aggresive about securing raw materials abroad. There has been a lot of attention to how China is becoming addicted to oil, like the US. Some may see this as an inevitable outcome of economic development. My Dad, for example, has invested pretty heavily in Chinese oil companies.

Anyway, here are two NPR stories about how oil influences both countries foreign policies:

China:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5372757

The US:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5345281

[ord100]

The ratio sounds good... but the REAL problem is the absolute number of cars/trucks that consume petroleum and emit gases that pollute and warm the environment.

The production of automobiles, the construction of roads, and the raw materials sourcing for the cars, also consumes petroleum and emits gases that pollute. The only true "environmentally friendly car" is the one on a drawing board that is never built!!

Earth Policy says global bicyle production was 105 million in 2003 vs. 42 million automobiles (excludes SUVs & pickups that americans love). In 2006, global light vehicle production will be about 62 million... and capacity is 80+ million units. (light vehicles are cars + pickup trucks + SUVs, small delivery vans, etc).

http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Bike/Bike_data.htm#fig2

http://www.earth-policy.org/

[bhchao]

Gas prices in the US are now averaging around $3.10 a gallon for regular gas.

China is not the only country whose energy needs are affecting the environment. Congress is pushing to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for drilling, which will not significantly reduce the US's dependence on imported oil.

If both China and the US can significantly reduce their energy demands by satisfying them with alternative sources or new technologies, it would help deflate world oil prices. But of course coming up with these technologies takes several years in the making.

Also not many cities have the geographical advantages of cities like NYC and Hong Kong, where the geography of the city makes it easier for development to be dense.

[ord100]

"If both China and the US can significantly reduce their energy demands by satisfying them with alternative sources or new technologies, it would help deflate world oil prices. But of course coming up with these technologies takes several years in the making."

The average US automobile (car, truck, SUV, etc) weighs 2 tons, has a 3.0+ litre gas motor, and gets less than 20 mpg. There is no need for new technology -- just smaller cars/motors that get 30-40 mpg. The subcompact market is growing FAST now with the Honda Fit, Toyota Scion & Yaris, Hyundai Elantra, etc.

The good thing about $75 oil is that it is slowing SUV sales and punishing the wasteful people that drive them.

[Long Zhiren]

The average US automobile (car, truck, SUV, etc) weighs 2 tons, has a 3.0+ litre gas motor, and gets less than 20 mpg. There is no need for new technology -- just smaller cars/motors that get 30-40 mpg. The subcompact market is growing FAST now with the Honda Fit, Toyota Scion & Yaris, Hyundai Elantra, etc.

The subcompact market was doing just fine in the US back in 1992 (eg Ford Escorts at 1 ton, 1.9 lt engine, 40mpg, Saturn SLs at 1 ton, etc), but then whamo, all of the gains from 15 years of progress went in full reverse, doubling weights (sometimes more like Toyota Land Cruisers at 3+ tons), dropping fuel economies, etc by 2000.

And anyway you slice it, every gallon of gasoline weighs about ten pounds. That's ten pounds of byproducts going out the tail pipe for every gallon burned.

The new hybrids are all very heavy, with at least a couple hundred pounds of battery each.

[bhchao]

Toyota and Honda should build hybrids that gradually let the electric motor take over at highway speeds. Right now these electric motors are efficient only on road traffic.

[DrinkDrankDrunk]

Gas prices "destroying [European] economic growth", according to the EU:

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060430/AUTO01/604300399/1148/rss25

Long Zhiern, subcompacts are making a comeback in the U.S. as witnessed by the new offerings from Honda(Fit), Toyota(Yaris), and Nissan(Versa).

Hybrid sales slack despite gasoline hike

Ultimately hybrids are not yet financially attractive because they often command thousands of dollars over their regular gasoline counterparts, thus offsetting any savings from marginally better mileage.

[Long Zhiren]

Gas prices "destroying [European] economic growth", according to the EU:

I'm not sure if it's "destroying" it. IMO, the Europeans do it correctly. Every gallon of gasoline gets hit with about $3-4 of taxes. This accomplishes at least three things (1) it generates good revenue for the local governments, (2) mass transportation gets properly funded and (3) it makes the population more energy conservative. IMO, in the US, high gasoline taxes should replace property tax and state income taxes to a good extent.

Long Zhiern, subcompacts are making a comeback in the U.S. as witnessed by the new offerings from Honda(Fit), Toyota(Yaris), and Nissan(Versa).

Yep. comeback is the keyword. Why did it have to go away in the first place?

Hybrid sales slack despite gasoline hike

Ultimately hybrids are not yet financially attractive because they often command thousands of dollars over their regular gasoline counterparts, thus offsetting any savings from marginally better mileage.

Yep. Moreover, give it another five to seven years. The batteries in those things are only warranted for seven years. Remember, batteries die off over time regardless of how much they are actually used. Who in the world is going to fork out US$4000 for one of these new batteries? That's enough for about three head gasket jobs. US automakers initially wondered correctly as to what customer would be so financially out of their mind as to buy a hybrid. The US automakers missed out, as they have over and over again. This is a good thing though because this means that their lobby power (for keeping US gas taxes relatively low) is dying. It's about time.

[bhchao]

Car-free day in China on Sept. 22: China goes car-free for a day

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0041f17a-fc37-11db-93a4-000b5df10621,dwp_uuid=9c33700c-4c86-11da-89df-0000779e2340.html

More than 100 Chinese cities including Beijing and Shanghai are to take part in the country's first official urban "car-free day", barring automobiles from selected areas and ordering officials to swap their black sedans for public transport.

The decision to join other urban centres around the world in holding "no car" events on September 22 is a reflection of growing concerns about congestion, pollution and global warming that are clouding China's passionate love affair with the automobile....

Good idea to book a trip to China on that date.

[adrianlondon]

London also (usually) has a car-free day on that day. This involves some of the local councils closing a road (out of 1000s) and suggesting that people might like to consider not using their car on that day. It's a complete waste of time and is only used so they can put "Camden Council goes GREEN!!!" all over their website for a few weeks.

Hope the ones in China do better. Just knocking the govt cars off the road for a day will help. it did during the African summit thing last year.

[Ian_Lee]

As long as most city buses are as crowded as a can of sardines, or subway system which is really humbug like the awkward interchange from Line 1 to Line 2 in Shanghai, anyone who can afford a car will still stick to it.