Coronavirus - those in China, and general discussion

[Balthazar]

21 minutes ago, suMMit said:

Talking to my Chinese teacher yesterday, she said there are 106 confirmed cases in Xiangyang, Hubei. So, I also doubt the official numbers, I still think they must be quite a bit higher. 

 

According to the official numbers, there's 131 confirmed cases in Xiangyang. Not sure if I understand what you mean here.

 

[ChTTay]

Let’s hope the below from sixthtone Is true: 

 

 

In an interview with the state-run Xinhua News Agency, Zhong — who has been tasked with leading China’s efforts to bring the virus under control — said the total number of infections should steadily decline after the coming peak.

“An observation period of between 10 and 14 days is ideal,” the scientist said. “Once the incubation period has elapsed, those who haven’t developed symptoms should be safe, so there won’t be a major infection period after the Spring Festival break, when many people will be returning to the places they work.”

http://www.sixthtone.com/news/1005112/wuhan-coronavirus-latest-updates

[suMMit]

7 minutes ago, Balthazar said:

Not sure if I understand what you mean here.

I'm just saying I think the numbers are a lot higher than being reported/known.

[ChTTay]

6 minutes ago, suMMit said:

I'm just saying I think the numbers are a lot higher than being reported/known.

Your number (106) is lower than the official number (131). That’s what Balthazar is getting at I think. 

[Dawei3]

RTE radio podcasts from Ireland have some good segments on the coronavirus. Them seem very credible. Today’s was from an Irishman living in Wuhan. It was actually a little upbeat. It gave me a window into life there. 
 

[suMMit]

22 minutes ago, ChTTay said:

Your number (106) is lower than the official number (131). That’s what Balthazar is getting at I think.

Oh, I see. Yeah my teacher gave me that number yesterday actually. I didn't mean to say that specific number and the fact that I think the true numbers are higher had a connection.  I just think with the population of wuhan, the whole province being on lockdown, that many people having it in other cities, all the people that left wuhan before the lockdown, etc. The numbers simply have to be higher that 5000

[Flickserve]

1 hour ago, suMMit said:

The numbers simply have to be higher that 5000

oh for sure. That’s definite. 
 

there will be delays in processing test results for whatever reason. Some mild cases will be staying at home rather than going to hospital. 

[roddy]

18 hours ago, Tomsima said:

gotta love the humour, keeping me in good spirits

 

You'll need them, even if you make it. "People returning from China likely to be placed at a military base, government sources say".

 

There was, for what it's worth, something on the live feed on the Guardian about British people having to tell London they needed permission to get through roadblocks, then that would get fed back down locally. I would not be waiting for this to happen. Anyway, Tomsima's presumably waving at a village cadre over the handlebars of an airborne three-wheeler right now, and won't be reading this till he reaches the airport. 

[Shelley]

Why are they moving people out? Why would the US or UK or other countries want to be moving their people back to possibly bring the virus with them?

 

Why aren't the airports, seaports, borders and more shutdown?

 

Lock the virus in china,  all countries who want to help send volunteer doctors and supplies.

 

If you are there, what difference will it make if you leave now? If you got out at the first whiff of this then that makes sense.

 

Now - whats the point?

[889]

We could go back and forth on this forever.

 

First, if the returnees are quarantined for 14 days there shouldn't be any risk of spreading the disease.

 

Second, Chinese hospitals are becoming over-whelmed. For those who are sick -- with the virus or something else -- home country medical care is a better option at this point.

 

Third, the longer you stay in Wuhan during this epidemic, the greater the chance of developing the disease. So get out now, while you're well.

 

Point is, if I were in Wuhan today I'd be doing my darndest to make sure I wouldn't be in Wuhan tomorrow.

[ChTTay]

These people are essentially trapped in Wuhan/Hubei in their homes. They can’t go out. There will be worries about food and water supplies.They’ll worried about catching the virus. It makes sense to me that a foreign government wants to give their citizens the option to leave if they want. 
 

China has already Attempted the biggest quarantine in history. If you shut airports, seaports etc it would cause mass panic about food supplies, medical supplies, everything etc. You’d probably create a run on the borders. You’d trap non-Chinese people in China and Chinese people outside of China. 
 

Leaving now so you don’t have the spectre of it hanging over you, you don’t have to worry about not enough food the next day, or running out of water, so you’re not going stir crazy in your apartment for a month... so you’re not always wearing a mask, washing hands, being paranoid about sneezes and touching things. If you’ve got kids even more so. 

[roddy]

NYT piece on potential economic impact around the world. 

[889]

The economic effects are surprisingly broad. I saw a report today that Malaysian resorts are near half-empty because of the ban on Chinese tour groups heading overseas.

[roddy]

It's a bit crazy. This morning I was seeing what the latest rumours were on a new budget phone from Apple. Now I'm reading about disrupted supply chains affecting my gadget purchases. If this drags on...

[889]

Foxconn says don't worry.

 

http://www.ejinsight.com/2020-01-29-foxconn-vows-to-meet-production-obligations-amid-virus-outbreak/

[Dawei3]

12 minutes ago, roddy said:

disrupted supply chains

It's made me wonder where the US gets it's N95s from.  So much manufacturing is in China....  

 

17 minutes ago, 889 said:

economic effects are surprisingly broad

At a talk at Wharton business school on the financial impact of hurricane Sandy in the US, the speakers noted their surprising finding:  the biggest financial losses weren't from physical damage, but from people not going to work (the physical damage at the time was very noticeable).  This hurricane had hit New Jersey & New York, i.e., 2 areas with high economic activity.  Hence, this virus can have similar & less noticeable but important economic impacts.  

[roddy]

I think I read SARS knocked 1% of China's GDP. This seems to be having a greater impact, and China's way more connected globally. There'll be entire institutes of Chinese economists punching away at spreadsheets as we speak...

[889]

Let's restate that:

 

"There'll be entire institutes of Chinese economists sitting at home punching away at spreadsheets as we speak . . . "

[geraldc]

SARS led to the collapse of the tourist industry into HK, so the HK govt decided to let the mainlanders in. The current double whammy of the protests in HK putting off tourists and the Coronavirus stopping mainland and overseas tourists will make things very tricky economically indeed.

[ChTTay]

45 minutes ago, Dawei3 said:

t's made me wonder where the US gets it's N95s from.  So much manufacturing is in China..

Someone I know in the US was helping me buy some masks (to FedEx to me) and Amazon were sold out of 3M masks across the board. Most would ship sometime in February so not a really long wait or anything but still none available right now.