Coronavirus - those in China, and general discussion

[Jan Finster]

3 minutes ago, StChris said:

Speaking of Germany, I read that Merkel mentioned a 70% infection rate too. Is their any indication that the German government is pursuing a strategy similar to the British one?

I guess experts say a 70% infection rate is inevitable. The goal is to spread it out so health care is not overwhelmed.

This is why I mentioned above that I would not be surprised at all if there were new waves of coronavirus in China in the future. The only thing China can do to stop this would be to not let any foreigners enter until the pandemic is over. With SARS in 2003 it took the WHO nearly 9 months after the last reported case to declare the end of the pandemic...

 

 

 

[imron]

33 minutes ago, roddy said:

Must *slap* stop *slap* touching *slap* fa....wait,  damnit!

There are apps for that.

[carlo]

Quick thoughts from pandemic central (Northern Italy, got stuck while visiting my elderly parents and am now both worried for them and unable to leave).

 

The approach of different governments makes for some interesting game theory. Here businesses are under massive stress. Foreign importers are cancelling orders, or asking for "proof" that widgets are free of coronavirus, whatever that means. German and UK competitors are likely to benefit. Domestic consumers cannot consume, and employers are under massive stress to ensure employee safety – especially smaller companies that do not have the resources or the staying power to close all stores for two weeks and redo the factory floors. Italy is particularly vulnerable given the very large proportion of SMEs.

 

So the gamble of our neighbours looks at least partly motivated by thoughts of the economic endgame. China is big and centralised enough that someone can isolate Hubei for the greater good and order Shanghai doctors to go over and help. Europe alas is 一盘散沙 and I'm looking forward to seeing German doctors helping out in Milan (the sight of that would do more for the future of the continent than 70 years of European treaties).

 

As risk management is a large part of what I do professionally, I'm terrified any time someone shows me a model, makes a forecast, and forgets to discuss what will happen if the model is wrong. Exponential growth is counterintuitive: Italy may have 90% of all cases, but if infections grow 30% per day, the rest of the world gets there less than 10 days later. I think I can objectively say that Milan's health care system is among the best in Europe: it's very unlikely anyone else can cope much better, although at the beginning, luck helps.

 

So I think the odds are good that Europe's "beggar thy neighbour" phase won't last very long. If building herd immunity was so easy, China would have been in a good position to try. 

[StChris]

29 minutes ago, carlo said:

German doctors helping out in Milan (the sight of that would do more for the future of the continent than 70 years of European treaties)

 

Didn't Germany ban exports of facemasks to other EU countries? I agree with the sentiment, although I suppose many countries are now expecting an Italian style situation to happen in their own countries any day now, so are loathe to lend any medical expertise or supplies. I would still support the UK sending a small team to northern Italy, even if it is just for a couple of weeks. Not only would it help Italy in its time of need, it would also give the British medical staff vital experience of working with the virus. Italy's emergency will pass in the next 2-3 weeks, and I'm sure they will be much more inclined to help the UK and other countries in the future if they were offered help themselves in their time of need.

[Jan Finster]

1 minute ago, StChris said:

I would still support the UK sending a small team to northern Italy, even if it is just for a couple of weeks.

I believe China has sent medical staff to Iraq and Italy. There are also many videos of Chinese people going "加油意大利". Nice to see such solidarity. I guess there was no such sentiment from the rest of the world when it hit China ?

[StChris]

7 minutes ago, Jan Finster said:

I believe China has sent medical staff to Iraq and Italy. There are also many videos of Chinese people going "加油意大利". Nice to see such solidarity. I guess there was no such sentiment from the rest of the world when it hit China ?

 

I saw that too (it was on Chinese news). To be fair, this whole thing is kind of China's fault in the first place (unless the conspiracy theories about the US military are to be believed), so there probably should be helping out. Still, Western countries could have sent more help in February. One country which did offer a lot of help (especially in terms of supplies) was actually Japan. If there is one good thing to come out of this, then it's the improved Sino-Japanese relations. I've heard that many Chinese TV stations even took the 抗日 TV dramas off the air.

[Flickserve]

30 minutes ago, Jan Finster said:

I guess there was no such sentiment from the rest of the world when it hit China

 

Japan sent some supplies to China. I think mainly masks with eloquent messages of support. 

 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/China-deeply-touched-by-Japan-s-support-in-virus-fight

[Jan Finster]

17 minutes ago, StChris said:

One country which did offer a lot of help (especially in terms of supplies) was actually Japan

 

1 minute ago, Flickserve said:

Japan sent some supplies to China.

You guys are both right. I was thinking more of the west. China now offered Japan similar support. I read somewhere they would send them respirators etc.

[Jan Finster]

I wonder if there is a liability element if employers ask employees to continue working (for instance in the service industry) without implementing adequate protective measures?

[889]

"Still, Western countries could have sent more help in February."

 

Don't forget your history!

 

February 7, 2020, New York Times:

 

"C.D.C. and W.H.O. Offers to Help China Have Been Ignored for Weeks"

[Flickserve]

Given what is happening in the US, maybe it was a blessing in disguise the CDC didn’t get involved in China. 

[杰.克]

1 hour ago, Flickserve said:

Given what is happening in the US, maybe it was a blessing in disguise the CDC didn’t get involved in China. 

 

Lol

 

Im keen to look on the potential upsides where they are some. I think this will have a devastating impact on trumps bufoonishness , the tirade against expert opinion, and hopefully way more spending on health infrastructure and combating viruses (rather than weapons and disinformation)

 

Im hoping the shared difficulty all of us in society, and each country will have will bring about a renewed sense of working together. 

[Jan Finster]

6 minutes ago, 杰.克 said:

I think this will have a devastating impact on trumps bufoonishness , the tirade against expert opinion, and hopefully way more spending on health infrastructure and combating viruses (rather than weapons and disinformation)

 

Don´t hold your breath ?

[Flickserve]

Hmm. Not sure since other EU states haven't rushed forward to help Italy much. 

 

Spain and other member states are going into lockdown. UK is the odd one out still allowing mass events.

 

China might be needed in other countries

[889]

The US travel ban from Schengen Europe has just been extended to the UK and Ireland.

 

[杰.克]

We should have been in from the start, another blunder from Flump

[Jan Finster]

2 hours ago, Flickserve said:

UK is the odd one out still allowing mass events.

Several major events in my field have been cancelled in the UK. This included a conference with 6000+ people scheduled for April...

[Dawei3]

10 hours ago, Jan Finster said:

there were new waves of coronavirus in China in the future.

 

9 hours ago, carlo said:

If building herd immunity was so easy, China would have been in a good position

Herd immunity requires ~80% of the population to have immunity.  In China, only a fraction of this were infected (fortunately).  This is why in the US, we're seeing disease outbreaks with vaccine-preventable diseases despite that "most" people are vaccinated.  There are enough unvaccinated to sustain transmission.  

 

China has strong practices in place to protect people  Friends in both Beijing & Wuxi get masks from their employers everyday.  Some offices have 1/2 the people show up everyday.  Hence, even if the virus is reintroduced, it's unlikely to propagate far.  I had read that China is making 116 million masks/day (and this # is probably out of date).   

 

The key is introducing enough measures to push the R- or R0 value below 1, meaning the average person communicates the disease to <1 person.  When this happens, the disease dies out.  However, for Covid-19 to disappear, the R-value in the whole world would need to go below 1.  

[Jan Finster]

1 minute ago, Dawei3 said:

Some offices have 1/2 the people show up everyday.  Hence, even if the virus is reintroduced, it's unlikely to propagate far.  I had read that China is making 116 million masks/day (and this # is probably out of date)

Are you sure this is enough? People are eating (together) after all (and at least then not wearing masks I assume). The incubation period is 2 weeks. With China´s population density is can spread a long way in 14 days.

[dtcamero]

that’s fine for now, but once they all go back to business as usual and no one has immunity, all it takes is a few foreigners without symptoms to spread it again.

or else they maintain semi-quarantine for months and lose a tenth of a percentage of gdp for every month at partial capacity

 

personally i think the scariest thing that came out of all of this is the revelation that the CDC is a laughing stock, and that the medical systems of the US and Europe are incapable of even a worthwhile attempt at controlling this virus. they all just throw their hands up and say “it’s easier just to let it run it’s course.” well ok, i’m glad then that it’s not a more aggressive illness. but what if it were?