Coronavirus - those in China, and general discussion

[杰.克]

Yeah agree with the sentiment, and hoping this means it will be really hard for future political parties not to invest heavily in national healthcare systems.

[matteo]

11 hours ago, StChris said:

11 hours ago, Jan Finster said:

I believe China has sent medical staff to Iraq and Italy. There are also many videos of Chinese people going "加油意大利". Nice to see such solidarity. I guess there was no such sentiment from the rest of the world when it hit China ?

 

I saw that too (it was on Chinese news). To be fair, this whole thing is kind of China's fault in the first place (unless the conspiracy theories about the US military are to be believed), so there probably should be helping out. Still, Western countries could have sent more help in February. One country which did offer a lot of help (especially in terms of supplies) was actually Japan. If there is one good thing to come out of this, then it's the improved Sino-Japanese relations. I've heard that many Chinese TV stations even took the 抗日 TV dramas off the air.

 

Yeah China has sent a team of 9 doctors and supplies to Italy last week (which in the current climate is quite something, regardless of whether its been paid for or not really). It's been really appreciated in Italy and it's on all the newspapers, hopefully it will change the way the Italians see Chinese immigrants, who are too often discriminated in my opinion. 

 

As far as I know Italy didn't provide special support in February but I've been told that there were a number of initiatives by privates and communities (e.g. there is a huge group of people from wenzhou living in Tuscany) who sent supplies. 

 

 

 

[Flickserve]

7 hours ago, 杰.克 said:

Im keen to look on the potential upsides where they are some. I think this will have a devastating impact on trumps bufoonishness , the tirade against expert opinion, and hopefully way more spending on health infrastructure and combating viruses (rather than weapons and disinformation)

 

I'd like to see the whole way US healthcare is funded ripped apart. The insurance based means of payment is a disaster when it's the main method of payment.

 

Countries will have to reallocate more of their funds to healthcare. Human behaviour will dictate 20 years down the line, countries will become complacent again and then the cycle will return.

[somethingfunny]

There are three weeks until the Easter holidays in the UK, and if we have to sit around waiting for a press conference after every COBRA meeting to see if we need to come to work the next day, it is not going to be very enjoyable.  The government's hand might be forced anyway, because if enough sick teachers are self-isolating for a week, there won't be enough staff to keep the schools open.  And once we're at 1,000 new cases a day, I expect pupil attendance to fall dramatically.

[ChTTay]

Beijing announced any new arrivals to be quarantined in a quarantine facility for the 14 days. This includes Chinese nationals and foreigners. I assume this means hotels. It says there are exceptions but doesn’t say what. 

[mungouk]

56 minutes ago, ChTTay said:

Beijing announced any new arrivals to be quarantined in a quarantine facility for the 14 days.

 

According to reports the quarantine means in a "centralised" government-designated facility, with costs to be charged to the visitor.

 

https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/china/health

 

Quote

Beijing Municipal Government has announced that, as of Monday 16 March, all people arriving into Beijing from overseas (including those without symptoms of coronavirus) must undertake 14 days of centralised observation (quarantine) at places designated by the Beijing authorities. Those undergoing observation will be asked to cover the fees for their period of quarantine.

 

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3075288/international-travellers-beijing-pay-14-days-coronavirus

 

Quote

International travellers to Beijing to pay for 14 days of coronavirus quarantine

 

Quote

From Monday, everybody entering Beijing from outside the country will be transferred to a central isolation facility for 14 days of observation, Chen Bei, deputy secretary general of the Beijing municipal government, said, as the country scrambles to prevent more imported cases.

 

[Balthazar]

One thing that worries me about the "herd immunity strategy" is that we don't really know whether or not a significant percentage of those who recover from the disease will be left with  permanent issues, e.g. reduced lung function. I've only scratched the surface of the research, but here's a 2006 paper that looked at kids who had been infected with SARS. Not to say that this has any transferability to this virus (although this is certainly worrying), but the British strategy seems like one hell of a bet to make.

 

Here in Norway, cities are slowly closing down. We are now the country in Europe with the second highest infection rate. Most of those who can (including myself and my wife, thankfully) are working for home. Hair dressers and other non-critical professions who work with people are temporarily banned from working. The economy is tanking hard, a huge amount of layoffs are expected.

 

It's absurd how things have changed so quickly. We came back from China on 3 February and I started in new job on 10 February. After five years as a public servant I've moved on to the private sector, from "qualitative case work" to IT.  Bad timing.The company I work for has already taken a heavy blow as a result of the quarantines, and it's only expected to get worse. As in a 50 percent loss in turnover. As the newest hire, I expect I'd be the first to be let go if push comes to shove... And I don't expect it to be easy to find a new job under the current conditions. Luckily, we have a pretty decent safety net where I'd be guaranteed 60 percent of my former income if I'm laid off (and the government is considering increasing the amount to cope with the situation). Fingers crossed it won't come to that though.

[ChTTay]

30 minutes ago, mungouk said:

According to reports the quarantine means in a "centralised" government-designated facility,

I mean, of course it’s government designated! They’re the ones holding you. It seems like they are just ...  hotels ? Nothing fancy. 

[Jan Finster]

30 minutes ago, Balthazar said:

One thing that worries me about the "herd immunity strategy" is that we don't really know whether or not a significant percentage of those who recover from the disease will be left with  permanent issues, e.g. reduced lung function. I've only scratched the surface of the research, but here's a 2006 paper that looked at kids who had been infected with SARS. Not to say that this has any transferability to this virus (although this is certainly worrying), but the British strategy seems like one hell of a bet to make

 

This is a great point. It is too short-sighted to look at mortality rate. And the notion that children are immune to coronavirus is equally untrue as you rightly point out.

[Flickserve]

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1514599-20200315.htm
 

US and UK arrivals to HK to be quarantined 

[mikelove]

1 hour ago, Balthazar said:

I've only scratched the surface of the research, but here's a 2006 paper that looked at kids who had been infected with SARS. Not to say that this has any transferability to this virus (although this is certainly worrying), but the British strategy seems like one hell of a bet to make.

 

Not to dispute your larger point ("infect everyone and let the chips fall where they may" does seem like an awfully risky bet), but that paper specifically looked at "children who had previously received hospital treatment for SARS" - i.e. children who were affected by it badly enough to require hospitalization. (thankfully, in the case of coronavirus there seem to be very few of those) Likewise with the other link - these were people discharged from a hospital after having a serious enough case to be admitted to one.

 

The fact that in the US we've got 50 states and dozens of major cities each independently making their own decisions about when / what to close is going to make for some interesting research down the line.

[Balthazar]

@mikelove: I wouldn't be surprised to hear that the harder you are hit by a disease, the higher the chance for some sort of lasting impairment. And yes, most people do not require hospitalization.

 

My point was simply that there is more to the equation than the chance of dying from the disease.

 

Also: "Natural Herd Immunity: 10 questions to No 10’s experts"

 

[dtcamero]

1 hour ago, mikelove said:

infect everyone and let the chips fall where they may" does seem like an awfully risky bet

 

i feel like this is a bit generous to the british gov’t. i believe the reality is they are just being honest that they don’t have a way to control it. merkel said as much. in democratic countries you can’t lock citizens in in their homes like caged animals. you have to force congresspeople who hate each other to sit down and deliberate in order to make tough decisions... these are not the best times to live in a democratic country.

[Shelley]

I don't think they think kids are immune, just that they don't suffer badly. My worry is the snotty little dirty handed scruffs are going to infect everyone else.

Also if the kids are off school it will probably fall to the grandparents or other older extended family to care for them, not good either.

 

I think that it won't be long before we (the UK ) will also be on lock down. I am seriously considering closing the shop for a couple of weeks. As we are in the entertainment business it won't be long before clubs, pubs, venues etc will closed and then there is no work for us. Not worried about funds, there are grants to apply for, started the ball rolling already.

I am in the vulnerable group, I am not risking being open for 1 or 2 customers a day, nothing we do is urgent or important.

I have plenty to keep me busy, so an enforced stay at home is not a problem. As we live above the shop and we don't have many reasons to go out anyway normally, it won't be hard. Security wise we will be on the premisses so can keep an eye on things, this was one problem some one brought up, lots of empty shops.

 

So shopping online, and battening down the hatches for the duration and bring on the Dunkirk spirit - put the kettle on and keep calm.

 

[Ruben von Zwack]

On 3/14/2020 at 4:21 AM, StChris said:

This will probably be my last update from Harbin, as things seem to be much more "interesting" in Europe now. 

 Please keep posting! I find your updates very valuable.

[abcdefg]

4 hours ago, Shelley said:

So shopping online, and battening down the hatches for the duration and bring on the Dunkirk spirit - put the kettle on and keep calm.

 

A cup of tea is always a good idea! Now is a good time to take out your Chinese tea set and brew up some of the good stuff from scratch. 

[Ruben von Zwack]

Austria today tightened measures (link in German), but they don't want to call it a curfew:

No one is to leave their house, except for three reasons:
- professional work that cannot be postponed
- necessary shopping like food and medicine
- aiding another person
Going for a walk will be allowed, but only 一个人, or with someone who lives in your household, and only in urgent cases.

Meetings of more than five people are not be allowed.
Police will hand out high fines (€2,180-3,600) if these rules are breached, but can also use physical force (this was a specific parliament move of today).

In Germany, one federal state after another is putting more strict measures into place, but it is pretty chaotic. For example, Berlin announced that they will close nightlife bars and clubs from next Tuesday on, and then changed their mind and closed them immediately.
Other states like Nordrhein-Westfalen and Bavaria will, from tomorrow on, close all shops except groceries, banks and pharmacies. Bavaria announced they might take steps like Austria.

 

[Dawei3]

On 3/14/2020 at 7:01 PM, matteo said:

Italy didn't provide special support in February

At the beginning of Feb, Vatican city sent 600,000-700,000 masks to China, which is amazing for a city-state of just 1000 people.  I realize the Vatican is politically separate from Italy, I still see the help as coming from your part of the world.  

 

I just read that Italy has significantly more doctors & hospital beds/population than the US:  4.0 doctors/1000 population Italy versus 2.6 US.  And 34 beds/million Italy versus 29 beds/million US.  Hence, the US will really get hurt if we fail to implement sufficient controls. 

 

One thing we need to invest more in is vaccine research & production.  While we could put everyone in masks, the virus could come back again after we stop using them (as several of you noted).  This is something the world needs to do.  We need to purse research even after the immediate crisis:  https://www.statnews.com/2018/01/11/vaccines-drug-makers/

[Flickserve]

This article provides an overall comparison of the different methods of control.

 

China is the most draconian.

 

Others need a high degree of social cooperation, tracking of cases and testing for success yet allowing society to carry on with limitations.

 

 

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3075164/south-koreas-coronavirus-response-opposite-china-and

[matteo]

9 minutes ago, Dawei3 said:

On 3/15/2020 at 12:01 PM, matteo said:

Italy didn't provide special support in February

At the beginning of Feb, Vatican city sent 600,000-700,000 masks to China, which is amazing for a city-state of just 1000 people.  I realize the Vatican is politically separate from Italy, I still see the help as coming from your part of the world.  

 

I suspect that the Vatican is rich beyond anyone's wildest imagination regardless of its size ? 

 

 

17 minutes ago, Dawei3 said:

I just read that Italy has significantly more doctors & hospital beds/population than the US:  4.0 doctors/100,000 population Italy versus 2.6 US.  And 34 beds/million Italy versus 29 beds/million US.  Hence, the US will really get hurt if we fail to implement sufficient controls. 

 

I am not surprised about this. Italy is (famously) not efficient, but that doesn't mean that things don't work at all. Healthcare that has to be available for free to everyone all the times involves very high costs (and taxes), bureaucracy,  waste, delays etc. etc...but at the end of the day you still have a very large system and infrastructures in place that are quite developed and don't easily fail as they are funded by the government. 

 

On another note, I had an interesting conversation with my  dad (who incidentally is a doctor) last weekend about why fatality rates seems to be so high in Italy. There must be many different reasons (e.g. people don't respect the isolation rules etc.) but his opinion was that due to the high costs, they are only doing swab tests on a very small number of subjects and basically only those who are already in pretty bad conditions. So there must be a very large percentage undeclared cases that just get lighter symptoms and never make the records.