Coronavirus - those in China, and general discussion

[Flickserve]

It sounds like a new reality is coming for at least a year and likely a couple of years. We won't be able to live like we have done and travelling as a hobby is going to spiral downwards.

 

Glad that the UK suddenly woke up. For all their clever modelling (all due respect if anybody on the forum is from imperial or LSTHM), if they weren't getting good data in I.e. by lack of testing, any model is exposed to greater flaws. Garbage in, garbage out. It's like they were heading to the edge of a cliff oblivious to what's happening to the rest of the world. Looking at just numbers and not the bigger picture.

 

A medic friend of mine told me it is bad on his ward in London. Ward is full of suspected cases.

 

Downgrading the level of protective equipment in UK as well. Probably due to lack of supply. Which means medical staff are.....Better not say. Let's just try to get through this.

[Lu]

Shortly after I first read about the 'herd immunity' approach here, the Dutch prime minister made a speech explaining that is also going to be the Dutch approach. Reading about the approach here has me worried that this is not a good idea. On the other hand, what else does 'flatten the curve' mean but 'everyone is going to get it, but let's try to not all get it at the same time'? And that seems a wise approach, to not all get sick at the same time.

 

The Taiwanese and the (initial) South Korean way of handling things seems to be a lot more effective and result in a lot fewer sick people, but I do think that those countries had a lot of help from their borders, which are all sea and air (the borders that can actually be crossed, that is). Whereas the Netherlands is mostly wide open land border. Trying to close the European borders is futile, as refugees and migrants have amply demonstrated in the past years.

 

My oldest brother & my sister-in-law are both family doctors and expect to get sick at some point. Meanwhile I am coughing and wondering if I should worry. Meh, perhaps better not, I can always worry later.

[StChris]

1 hour ago, Lu said:

Trying to close the European borders is futile, as refugees and migrants have amply demonstrated in the past years.

 

I think it's actually easy to do, so long as the political will is there. Greece seems to be coping well since Turkey tried to create another European refugee crisis a a few weeks back. The 2015-16 crisis could have been stopped in a similar way, if not for the fact that European governments were just unwilling to stop it back then. This time around, the political will is there, and so the border is being enforced.

 

The "herd immunity" thing seems to be just one part of the "flattening the curve" model, and it looks like it's the one most European countries are following, just not as explicitly as the Netherlands and the UK. Right now I can't help but feel that Russia, Taiwan etc has done a much better job than Europe so far. We have had plenty of advance warning about this, and closing the borders with any affected countries immediately, as Russia did, would have meant that Europe would be relatively normal now and would have had the time to prepare by manufacturing more medical equipment etc. 

 

Ultimately, we won't know who was correct about this until a couple of years from now. If next winter China, Russia, Taiwan etc experiences a massive spike whereas Europe is relatively ok, then our experts will have been vindicated. I hope for our sake that they are correct.

[StChris]

Just had some thoughts today about the wider implications of the virus.

 

Has this made anyone think more about the value of free speech and freedom of the press? For me, the silencing of Li Wenliang and the other Wuhan doctors back in late December made me realise that freedom of speech and the press isn't just a matter of moral principle, it's also a good way of ensuring that society gets the accurate information that it needs. If a similar thing happened in a Western country, the doctors would have gotten a lot of traction on social media, there may have been newspapers investigating the claims, and this virus may have been contained before it could spread worldwide.

 

Ok, so far so good for free speech. But then I watched some of the recent coverage of the virus in western media and suddenly I'm with the CCP on this issue! Sometimes the western media is so false. Some if it is just silly stuff, like the photographers waiting on a bridge all morning waiting for that one person wearing a facemask (bonus if it's a white person, otherwise settle for an Asian lady). Sure, it doesn't accurately reflect the situation, but it does look cool on the front page. Then there's the looking for the "empty shelves" photo, which just encourages more panic buying, which leads to more empty shelves photos and so on. Then there's the conspiracy theories, of Boris wanting to secretly kill off the weak an elderly (a strange theory, given that the elderly overwhelmingly vote Tory). Worse of all, there are the random celebrities being invited on TV to argue with actual virologists (I think it was Caprice yesterday - ah, there's a name from my youth that I haven't heard in a long time!). All this makes me hungry for some nice and boring CCTV newscasts, as a staid and robotic news presenter asking staged questions to a staid and boring expert/doctor, finished off with some feel-good propaganda about how, although the situation is perilous, every is pulling together as a country to defeat the virus under the  sage leadership of our wise leader.

[Lu]

7 minutes ago, StChris said:

Has this made anyone think more about the value of free speech and freedom of the press?

The problem in both cases is more: too much bad content (false, misleading, fanning the flames etc) at the expense of good content (informative, correct, calming). If there is censorship, the government itself generates the bad content and surpresses the good; with a free press that has an incentive to just get as much attention as possible, so much content is generated that people can't see the good forest from the bad trees anymore.

 

Also, you posted the same post four times in a row, what's going on and can we fix that?

[StChris]

4 minutes ago, Lu said:

Also, you posted the same post four times in a row, what's going on and can we fix that?

 

Sorry about that, I only hit reply once, i promise! 

 

Does the forum run super slow for anyone else in China? It's always much quicker for me when I use a VPN (which isn't working right now).

[Shelley]

I am not expecting to be closed for the rest of the year, just a few weeks, maybe 2 months till we find out whats actually going to happen with the level of infection we are going to suffer.

If 1 out 10 people get ill, I will be less worried than 8 or 9 out 10. The chances of me coming into contact with the virus before a concrete course of action for treating it is found must be be low enough for it to be as safe as me catching any flu. It just seems so virulent at the moment.

 

With the warmer weather and the risks for normal flu decreasing as we open windows and spend more time in the fresh air and not crammed together in dark airless rooms I think it will become less risky for me.

The summer is always a low risk time for flu.

[Flickserve]

4 hours ago, StChris said:

it's also a good way of ensuring that society gets the accurate information that it needs.

 

You mean like Fox News ? The Press have abnormal incentive to gain publicity or favour political agendas which in turn leads to biased opinions. It's a difficult one.

 

 

6 hours ago, Lu said:

On the other hand, what else does 'flatten the curve' mean but 'everyone is going to get it, but let's try to not all get it at the same time'? And that seems a wise approach, to not all get sick at the same time

 

For UK, this had to be a tragic joke except it was real. Their 'flatten the curve' policy meant they did nothing last two weeks. If you really want controlled herd immunity, it sounds more sensible to get control first, then slowly loosen the controls. Not have a free for all virus activity and then find your control taps don't actually work because the torrent of cases is now beyond any control. In fact, I suspect that is what they suddenly realised (after some nudging by WHO and other countries) which made them change their minds yesterday.

[Ruben von Zwack]

11 hours ago, Lu said:

I do think that those countries had a lot of help from their borders, which are all sea and air

It is a compelling thought, but at the same time, Russia does seem to do well, while Britain, an Island, does not do so well. I think the initial cases were all imported by air travel.

 

5 hours ago, Flickserve said:

If you really want controlled herd immunity, it sounds more sensible to get control first, then slowly loosen the controls.

Isn't that basically what China is doing currently, with some shops re-opening but under strict hygiene measures?

In Germany, I suspect the heart-wrenching reports from Italy at last enabled sensible advisers to push through to politicians. My state, Bavaria, will go into lockdown tomorrow. About a week after they realized how serious the situation was.
Meanwhile, experts are still downplaying it (virologist Drosten on public TV: "80% of cases will be mild"), people, including the seniors, are still flocking to small cafes and restaurants, and sunbathing packed like Sardines in the Biergartens.
The students who were supposed to stay home from Monday on instead meet their peers at Döner Kebab shops and share their coke bottles, and hold "Corona Parties" cause it's all a giant joke.

[Flickserve]

1 hour ago, Ruben von Zwack said:

Isn't that basically what China is doing currently, with some shops re-opening but under strict hygiene measures?

 

Yes. China and many other countries.

 

1 hour ago, Ruben von Zwack said:

In Germany, I suspect the heart-wrenching reports from Italy at last enabled sensible advisers to push through to politicians. My state, Bavaria, will go into lockdown tomorrow. About a week after they realized how serious the situation was.
Meanwhile, experts are still downplaying it (virologist Drosten on public TV: "80% of cases will be mild"), people, including the seniors, are still flocking to small cafes and restaurants, and sunbathing packed like Sardines in the Biergartens.
The students who were supposed to stay home from Monday on instead meet their peers at Döner Kebab shops and share their coke bottles, and hold "Corona Parties" cause it's all a giant joke.

 

This is so disappointing and selfish. For the young, 0.2% will die. That's 1 in 500. Is that an acceptable level of risk? 1 in 5 seriously ill with long term effects. Reassurance is doing no good.

 

Here's something interesting. In Hong Kong, the culture is to wear facemasks. Who doesn't wear a facemask? It's mostly and consistently Caucasians who have been following religiously "don't wear a mask unless you are sick" and looking at local HKers with some amusement.

 

After what's been happening in Europe, there's been a shift of opinion that these people are doing the community no good, especially with imported cases now coming up. Apart from the health risks, it shows a lack of cultural sensitivity. I think we are starting to see progressively more Caucasians starting to wear masks on the street. There's been a social media campaign to get these people to wear masks. Will report back on this.

 

Personally for me, from a non-scientific point of view (?), walking outside without mask is still a little unpredictable. Someone may sneeze and the water droplets might transfer further than 2metres if the wind happens to blow in the right direction. 

 

Continuing on the subject of expats and families, they are in a dilemma. Many had moved out families because of the riots , and then virus. Now, with Europe and North America badly affected, would they consider moving back?

 

Two recent cases of note. A local born HK doctor came back from skiing in Vancouver and caught the virus. Another doctor came back from Florida with the virus. Fortunately, they hadn't been to work.

 

We haven't seen many flight staff get ill. Only one case in HK, despite flights going into virus affected areas. Outside of the aircraft transmission is a definite possibility.Yet some passengers do transfer to other passengers. Those airline staff must be doing something right. 

 

 

[Lu]

11 hours ago, Ruben von Zwack said:

The students who were supposed to stay home from Monday on instead meet their peers at Döner Kebab shops and share their coke bottles, and hold "Corona Parties" cause it's all a giant joke.

This is my worry too. Until very recently, our own prime minister treated it as mostly a joke. He's now taking it seriously, fortunately. But a friend told me yesterday that when she took a walk through her neighbourhood, she saw all kinds of people having dinner parties at home.

 

Something nice that happened: there was a message going around proposing to all applaud the healthcare workers, from our balcony, last night at 20:00. And people did. It was truly heart-warming to stand on my balcony and applaud and see all the neighbours in the building, also on their balconies, applauding. It feels so cheesy to say this but it really helped, a feeling of 'all in this together'.

 

The rest of the time I fret & worry and I'm not even sure about what. I'm not particularly worried about myself personally or my immediate loved ones, I think we will be fine in the end. The economy might tank badly, but I don't think that's what getting me down so bad either. Perhaps I'm just susceptible to a general feeling of doom, and not seeing the end of the situation.

[ChTTay]

There is an Imperial college report on COVID19 that I’ve seen a few summaries of. Their projections (in the US) do not look so good. Has anyone seen what It or read the whole document?

 

I do have a copy but haven’t had the time (or motivation) to read the whole thing. 

[Ruben von Zwack]

Can someone biology-savvy help me out?

 

Some loony German ex lung doctor/ex social democrat health politician "exposed" that the Corona tests are a sham. He says the tests were for Corona viruses in general, not for Covid-19, so most of them are false positives, which explains the high numbers of infections, and anyway, Corona viruses are floating around everywhere. And people who died would have died anyway, especially in flu season. So it is massively overblown and just a conspiracy by "big pharma" and the WHO who want to sell new vaccines.

Incredibly enough, his videos are not only getting millions of views, but he is even given space even in the mainstram (Link in German, regular daily newspaper: "The solution to the Corona crisis is to isolate the fearmongers").

Phew, I guess now that Germany has that sorted out for the rest of the world, we can all go back to normal. You're welcome. Brezn and beer on the house ??  [/cynicism]

 

Does anyone have a link for me about the accuracy of these tests? All I know is that China used several versions of tests.
 

[Jan Finster]

1 hour ago, Ruben von Zwack said:

Some loony German ex lung doctor/ex social democrat health politician "exposed" that the Corona tests are a sham. He says the tests were for Corona viruses in general, not for Covid-19, so most of them are false positives, which explains the high numbers of infections, and anyway, Corona viruses are floating around everywhere. And people who died would have died anyway, especially in flu season. So it is massively overblown and just a conspiracy by "big pharma" and the WHO who want to sell new vaccines.

Incredibly enough, his videos are not only getting millions of views, but he is even given space even in the mainstram (Link in German, regular daily newspaper: "The solution to the Corona crisis is to isolate the fearmongers").

Phew, I guess now that Germany has that sorted out for the rest of the world, we can all go back to normal. You're welcome. Brezn and beer on the house ??  [/cynicism]

 

Does anyone have a link for me about the accuracy of these tests? All I know is that China used several versions of tests.

 

 

This is easy to refute. It is likely that in the early days (first few cases), there was a generic test for coronaviruses, since this is a new and unknown virus after all, so there could not have been a specific test for this.

 

The currently used assays are specific for COVID-19:

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.3.2000045

 

"Cross-reactivity with other coronavirusesCell culture supernatants containing all endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV)‑229E, ‑NL63, ‑OC43 and ‑HKU1 as well as MERS-CoV were tested in duplicate in all three assays (Table 2). For the non-cultivable HCoV-HKU1, supernatant from human airway culture was used. Viral RNA concentration in all samples was determined by specific real-time RT-PCRs and in vitro-transcribed RNA standards designed for absolute quantification of viral load. Additional undiluted (but not quantified) cell culture supernatants were tested as summarised in Table 2. These were additionally mixed into negative human sputum samples. None of the tested viruses or virus preparations showed reactivity with any assay."

(highlight by Jan Finster)

 

 

[Ruben von Zwack]

Thank you Jan Finster!

What do you make of this? People are quoting it as "proof". I suppose the problem is amateurs looking at scientific texts: 
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32133832

[Jan Finster]

20 minutes ago, Ruben von Zwack said:

What do you make of this? People are quoting it as "proof". I suppose the problem is amateurs looking at scientific texts: 
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32133832?fbclid=IwAR2gvQAUb4v0Bc1GFLjvUpQtpoY8my-6ls98BVnaAvdTAufewYyyOT0sshM

 

I cannot get this paper. If I click on the link it gives an 404 error code. Plus, this would be a  paper in Chinese...

The abstract is confusing, and from the abstract I cannot make any sense as to which assays they are talking about. I also do not know, how they define "false-positive". They talk about  'asymptomatic infected individuals'. The fact that they are asymptomatic, does not mean the test is wrong....

 

I am sure there are tests that are better than others. As I understand, there is not one universally used test world-wide.

[Ruben von Zwack]

3 minutes ago, Jan Finster said:

As I understand, there is not one universally used test world-wide

 

That is what I understand too. I guess I'll start ignoring "arguments" like that. I see a pattern there: when you engage with someone who believes it is a conspiracy, and you reply, they instantly pull the next argument out of their hat. They could probably go on like that forever.

[Flickserve]

7 hours ago, Lu said:

Perhaps I'm just susceptible to a general feeling of doom, and not seeing the end of the situation.

 

Post more on the forum. Sharing helps alleviate that feeling.

 

[wibr]

@Ruben von Zwack You might want to listen to the latest podcast episode (German) with Christian Drosten in which he describes how the test was developed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZqcTTTVkXY&t=2s

 

Drosten by the way is in no way downplaying anything, he is very concerned about the situation, it's just a fact that 80% of the infections are mild.

[Lu]

23 minutes ago, Flickserve said:

Post more on the forum. Sharing helps alleviate that feeling.

I called my parents (who have gotten really good at being retired and are very happy together at home), went for a walk and am now proofreading my translation of a manual. I feel better now. Next up is dinner and a tv series. Tomorrow I shall continue this balancing act between following the news & the situation and not letting myself get into a semi-panic.