Coronavirus - those in China, and general discussion

[Flickserve]

49 minutes ago, 889 said:

Indeed, in some places masks are so scarce that telling everyone to wear them would be like encouraging everyone to get a vaccine shot.

a crux of public health is prevention is better than the cure. Unfortunately, we haven’t seen effective measures during this epidemic and we have had numerous instances of breakdown of “social distancing”. Since masks limit physical spread of aerosols, it’s better to try and reduce numbers before getting to hospital, in addition to reducing close physical contact between people.
 

I am pretty curious why CDC and LHSTM were so convinced of only wearing masks when one has symptoms when this a novel coronavirus. After all, novel things in medicine have differences to old evidence.

 

[abcdefg]

3 minutes ago, Flickserve said:

Since masks limit physical spread of aerosols, it’s better to try and reduce numbers before getting to hospital, in addition to reducing close physical contact between people.

 

I just received a "care package" of N95 masks from a good friend in Kunming. Am so thankful they arrived safely. More precious than gold. 

[889]

But what's the point of urging everyone to wear a mask if masks aren't readily available?

 

No more useful than urging everyone to ask their doctor for a vaccine shot against the virus.

 

Under current supply conditions, "Stay Inside" is and should be the message. Don't waste your time and incur risk running from pharmacy to pharmacy trying to track down non-existent masks.

[dtcamero]

surgical- type masks aren’t complicated and can be easily reproduced at home if there are none in supply.

i see them coming back onto the market, however. it’s just the n95s that are in a critical shortage.

i saw the japanese government today recommend that every japanese person wear a simple cloth mask with ear loops which can be washed / sanitized and re-used easily. they plan to mail every japanese citizen 2 of these masks for everyday wear. not as cool as the hong kong kids’ masks, but probably a good idea.

[889]

"I see them coming back onto the market, however."

 

That doesn't tell us anything. The question is, what's the underlying supply situation: Can it meet demand if CDC suddenly tells everyone to buy masks?

 

Remember how toilet paper gets cleared off the shelves in a flash. Without CDC saying a word.

 

And let's not limit criticism to CDC. The vaunted WHO still advises, "If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection. Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing."

 

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks

[dtcamero]

if you can make them on your own out of any simple cloth and two sprigs of elastic, as the japanese are doing, then there is ample supply. why can’t america do that? every underwear company should start making masks and we’ll have enough in a week.

[889]

Well, I guess we need a catchy name for those home-made contraptions.

 

Victory Masks?

 

(Stuff like cotton underwear all comes from places like Honduras these days; doubt there's much manufacturing capacity within the U.S. left.)

 

EDIT:

 

Somebody else beat me to the punch!

 

https://www.makevictorymasks.org/

[Balthazar]

2 hours ago, 889 said:

Remember how toilet paper gets cleared off the shelves in a flash. Without CDC saying a word.

 

We've all learned from that, the next time around I'm sure the CDC, WHO et al. will announce that toilet paper is actually not effective for post-defecation cleansing, unless you have diarrhea.

 

In other news, Chinese county goes into coronavirus lockdown as country tries to get back to work amid fear of second wave

 

I think we're going to see more of this going forward.

[Flickserve]

8 hours ago, 889 said:

But what's the point of urging everyone to wear a mask if masks aren't readily available?

barrier protection and public. If you can’t do barrier protection, then keep a distance away from people. People didn’t follow social distancing orders because they think asymptomatic people don’t spread virus - this is an unknown variable.

 

The trouble with the previous advice is it made people not think of keeping a distance symptoms or no symptoms. 
 

6 hours ago, 889 said:

And let's not limit criticism to CDC.

Definitely. Already mentioned In my post is LSHTM - London School of Health and Tropical Medicine . ? It is british and up there with John Hopkins for public health ?

 

6 hours ago, 889 said:

The vaunted WHO still advises, "If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection. Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing."

 

If WHO change, it’s going to set the cat amongst the pigeons.

 

 

The panel's chair, Prof David Heymann, told BBC News that the new research may lead to a shift in advice about masks. 

 

The former director at the WHO explained: "The WHO is opening up its discussion again looking at the new evidence to see whether or not there should be a change in the way it's recommending masks should be used."

 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52126735

 

 

 
 

 

[Balthazar]

Just noticed this: WHO considers changing guidance on wearing face masks

 

Edit: Whoops, same info as in @Flickserve's link above.

[Flickserve]

@Balthazar

 

I hadn't read that article. Note within it the text below. This is exactly what we do in HK - patients and staff wear masks during this current crisis.

 

“Our call for surgical masks to be worn by all staff and patients in all areas of hospitals, and for all patients to be treated as Covid-19 patients, comes in the wake of two consultant deaths, and of course the infection of the prime minister and health secretary,” said Dr Claudia Paoloni, the HCSA’s president and an anaesthetist at an NHS hospital in Bristol. “This underlines how infectious this disease is.”

 

 

[889]

And as of today, April 3, Hong Kong deaths remain at 4. New York City has over 1,500.

 

Something is accounting for the difference in two similarly crowded cities where everyone uses public transit to get around.

[Shelley]

The only difference I can think of is the habitual use of face masks in Hong Kong.

 

The general consensus til now has been that masks aren't effective, but that view has changed and there are now calls for everyone to wear them when going out.

 

Personally I think it doesn't hurt to wear them and intuitively it makes sense.

 

I wonder if a panic buying run on facemasks was the reason the advice for everyone to wear them wasn't given.

[889]

I can think of a couple of other reasons, though there may be more.

 

First, the city is compact enough and the number of daily new cases few enough -- around 40 recently -- so that tracing and isolating contacts remains feasible.

 

Second, there were some 300 deaths from SARS in Hong Kong, so everyone knew what this could become and took precautions from the start. Without that history, I think people elsewhere were largely caught off guard by the seriousness of the epidemic, and began to react too late.

 

 

[Jim]

Heard this a while back and forgot to post it here, very funny song about village quarantine from Gansu folkie 张尕怂

https://haokan.baidu.com/v?vid=1837789052638808789

 

ETA segues into the song he's parodying after there by the way.

[feihong]

Love it!
 

In that vein, here’s a comedic song about musicians struggling to stay afloat during the pandemic, from the Taiwanese acapella group 寻人启事:

https://youtu.be/jO1whC3d7Tw

 

Edit: While searching for the lyrics to the song, I accidentally stumbled upon this techno version of the aforementioned folk song (早知道在家呆这么久?https://www.xiami.com/song/bf37sbq4e5bc

[Flickserve]

I wake today and read the news that the CDC have changed position

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover.html 

 

However, in UK, the deputy chief medical officer is still steadfast. 
 

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-52153145/coronavirus-we-do-not-recommend-face-masks-for-general-wearing?fbclid=IwAR0wXRbaKnNzttgHuzEtTmO66DatzXeiPfzqxjnL5n3LNPvAXVY2imOjXl4
 

Singapore changes track and does not actively discourage facemasks. 
 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid-19-coronavirus-reusable-face-masks-singapore-pm-lee-12606598

WHO changes course on the public wearing of facemasks. However a quick search on WHO website at time of writing doesn’t seem to recommend healthy people needing to wear masks.

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3078407/coronavirus-world-health-organisation-reverses-course-now-supports

 

 

 

 

Hong Kong and Singapore are showing parallels in new cases. There are the new returnees, those who are traceable but also a proportion of who don’t know how they got the disease. HK doesn’t have many other interventions left. Singapore will finally stop schools. They held out as long as possible as everybody there understands how important education is and their modelling showed a lesser effect of stopping schools. 

[Flickserve]

17 hours ago, Shelley said:

The only difference I can think of is the habitual use of face masks in Hong Kong.

It’s the most visible.

 

90% of non-chinese in HK central district are now wearing masks in public areas although the new case figures haven’t exploded. A nice change from a couple of weeks ago. Even if it may only have a slight effect, it’s better than having one extra case. 
 

Every place is doing a temperature check now. Customers in shops, at the post office, eating at lunch ... every person gets a temperature check with a device pointed at your forehead. It’s pretty inaccurate. I had two checks within the space of five minutes and had a temperature difference of 1 degree being hypothermic for one of them. I suppose it catches people who have a raging fever but I doubt many of those will be out and about. Dubious on the spot effectiveness but the public are happy to comply.
 

In restaurants, there now also has to be spacing between people so every other table can’t be used.  I was at McDonalds and got a bit concerned with the lady coughing into her tissue a few times (and not the discreet type of cough) two tables away. It was even more surprising when another customer asked to sit on the same table as me to eat his food. We are limited to no more than four people to a table. I finished up quickly and left. 
 

Relatives ask me about working in the medical facility as a perceived risky environment. With the low case rates and the amount of screening going on, my workplace is very safe. After all, when standing next to someone in public, we don’t ask if they have a fever, recent travel, got a fever or cough etc whereas we do that at hospital. However, in those severely affected places around the world, medical environments are high risk areas. 
 

I have suggested to a couple of people to shave off their beards. From my perspective, beards can harbour viral material with a big surface area and the face will be less easy to clean - it is not evidence based but an action based on trying to think of being comprehensive. The suggestion was taken very well and the wife of one of them was very happy not to need to moan at her husband! 
 

 

The frequent cleaning of common surfaces in Hong Kong is good. Every hour or couple of hours. Lift buttons , door handles etc. No doubt some areas are less good at it. I don’t think that’s so easy to be comprehensive in western cities. 
 

The HK government was pretty quick on stopping schools and implementing work from home. Kids haven’t been to school for over two months now. That would account for a big decrease in public transport usage. 

[mungouk]

Some green shoots perhaps...

 

I've been informed that Zhejiang Provincial Government have announced a schedule for students to return to their campuses:

• Universities are to prepare for return late April (each institution's plans subject to approval by Provincial Education Dept)
• Final-year junior/senior high school students: 13 April
• Other school students: 20 April
• Kindergartens: 6 May

 

Anyone outside of China can't return yet of course (including teachers), due to the border closures.

 

The Gaokao university entrance exams to be taken by around 10 million students have been put back to July for this year.

[Meng Lelan]

15 hours ago, mungouk said:

The Gaokao university entrance exams to be taken by around 10 million students have been put back to July for this year

 

Jeez! so hardcore and harsh to just push on with the Gaokao.  In France the bac exams are canceled this year, first time ever.