Coronavirus - those in China, and general discussion

[Shelley]

Also plans for certificates at least here the UK are non existent. Very difficult to police I would think and the black market in certificates could be the next big thing

[pan.kasper]

30 minutes ago, 889 said:

So far as I can gather, there's no confidence at least at this stage that vaccination prevents you from transmitting the virus. That is, you can be vaccinated yet could still be contagious to others. Until it's shown the vaccines also prevent transmission I'd expect no big change in travel restrictions.

 

I'm not saying that the vaccine alone would be enough, but a vaccine combined with other measures should probably make travel safe enough. if you take a covid test before a flight, show a certificate of vaccination and, say, get a week of quarantine in China (including the covid test at the end of it), then the odds of spreading anything are less than microscopic. 

[889]

Wishful thinking. At current stage of knowledge, vaccination does not reduce your threat of carrying the virus and introducing it to China.

 

 

[roddy]

From the Lancet: 

Quote

It is possible that a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine could reduce severity of disease but lead to prolonged shedding of infectious virus, which could have important consequences for public health if shedding resulted in increased transmission. 

I don't know what if anything is known about the proposed vaccines.

[pan.kasper]

50 minutes ago, Shelley said:

Also plans for certificates at least here the UK are non existent. Very difficult to police I would think and the black market in certificates could be the next big thing

don't think it would be that difficult to police, at least if you're opting for getting the vaccine from the official sources like the NHS in the UK. I'm pretty sure they would be able to issue a confirmation of vaccination if a number of countries required that  (just like they do for the covid test). And sure, there might be some fake certificates going around, but that can also be said about the covid test or literally any other certificate. 

 

17 minutes ago, 889 said:

Wishful thinking. At current stage of knowledge, vaccination does not reduce your threat of carrying the virus and introducing it to China.

 

both Pfizer and Moderna have above 90% efficacy in preventing the virus. Sure you're right, if you already got the virus when getting the vaccine (say, you caught it a day before), it wouldn't help much and that is certainly a concern. That's why there might still be some quarantine time and a couple of covid tests before being allowed to roam around freely. 

Bottom line is, countries don't want to stay closed and China is no exception. It's just bad for the economy. Sure, it's only my opinion and it's definitely a wishful thinking from my side. Still, i don't think it's entirely impossible that the working vaccine would allow China to loosen the restrictions and allow at least some people by the late spring. I think there's a fairly good chance for that

[889]

" . . . both Pfizer and Moderna have above 90% efficacy in preventing the virus. Sure you're right, if you already got the virus when getting the vaccine (say, you caught it a day before), it wouldn't help much and that is certainly a concern."

 

You are completely offbase in your understanding of how vaccines work and what we know about these vaccines. To quote Lancet again:

 

"Whether the vaccines prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 or mainly just protect against illness is largely unknown too."

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32472-7/fulltext

[Flickserve]

12 minutes ago, pan.kasper said:

And sure, there might be some fake certificates going around, but that can also be said about the covid test or literally any other certificate. 

 

The latest in forgeries in UK is the EWS1 certificate. Not saying it shouldn't be done or it's a bad idea but @Shelley points out  real life issues.

[pan.kasper]

So far, all the vaccines  based on mRNA show more than 90% efficacy in preventing the transmission, according to the recent reports. In other words, if you get vaccinated, and didn't already have an active coronavirus, you are very unlikely to catch it for a given period of time as you will have the coronavirus antibodies. For how long is unclear, but the protective immunity is expected to last for at least than half a year.  The first round of vaccinations are about to start right now in several countries. I believe that based on that we will soon be able to evaluate the actual amount of protection we are afforded by the vaccine. 
I really don't see how the working vaccine wouldn't lead to the gradual opening of the borders. 

 

47 minutes ago, Flickserve said:

The latest in forgeries in UK is the EWS1 certificate. Not saying it shouldn't be done or it's a bad idea but @Shelley points out  real life issues.

I mean, sure, it could be an issue. But it's really easy to fix and i don't think that would prevent the world from getting back to normal. You could get a QR code on your certificate that custom officers could scan and confirm on the NHS website you really received the vaccination. Or million other ways to verify it 

 

[Flickserve]

1 hour ago, pan.kasper said:

But it's really easy to fix and i don't think that would prevent the world from getting back to normal. You could get a QR code on your certificate that custom officers could scan and confirm on the NHS website you really received the vaccination. Or million other ways to verify it 

 

 

In UK, I doubt it can be implemented - remember the UK is the country with the "world beating app" that was breathtaking with its lack of success.

[Shelley]

1 hour ago, pan.kasper said:

Or million other ways to verify it

 

Or a million other ways to defeat any way to verify it. The hackers and scammers are a very clever lot when it comes to this sort of thing, do not underestimate what is possible.

[pan.kasper]

35 minutes ago, Shelley said:

Or a million other ways to defeat any way to verify it. The hackers and scammers are a very clever lot when it comes to this sort of thing, do not underestimate what is possible.

Sure, someone could also get a fake passport or a fake visa. If someone is technically savvy enough to break into the government website, they might as well already fake PU letter, that would allow them to go back to China today. I'm not saying that hackers would never be able to do a thing like this (though hacking into an NHS website to get a vaccination certificate instead of just getting vaccined sounds a little unreasonable). I'm saying that the occurance of such thing would be so rare that it is unlikely to affect the border policy.

In fact, systems like this worked before in several different countries during various epidemics. You couldn't enter some countries from Africa/Asia without first producing a proof of being vaccinated against a disease that is prevelant in the area you are coming from. Never heard about fake certificates being a major issue. What would be the point - it's just easier and safer to get a shot of vaccine.

 

41 minutes ago, Flickserve said:

In UK, I doubt it can be implemented - remember the UK is the country with the "world beating app" that was breathtaking with its lack of success.

If there is a demand for it, and there almost surely will be, then I'm pretty sure that the countries won't have any problems in producing vaccination certificates. And if they won't, then the private companies surely will. China and other countries may then evaluate which companies they trust enough, e.g. if your name is on the website of Pfizer or AstraZeneca (probably won't be them, just an example) as a person who received the vaccine, then I don't see why the China and other countries wouldn't respect that. 

I agree that it's absolutely not sure whether any of the vaccines will solve the crisis. I don't say that China will surely, or even most likely, open as soon as there is one avaialble. That probably won't happen. All I'm saying is that in 5/6 months from now, there is some hope that we will be able to get from one country to another more easily than now. Might not be the case, but i think we have a fair shot and the prospects surely look better now than they did a month ago
 

[889]

"So far, all the vaccines  based on mRNA show more than 90% efficacy in preventing the transmission, according to the recent reports."

 

And just where are links to those "recent reports"? Here's a 27 November Reuters report:

 

"Evidence so far suggests that COVID-19 vaccines developed by Pfizer-BioNtech, Moderna and AstraZeneca will help stop people developing the disease. Only AstraZeneca’s data, so far, shows signs that its shot may also help prevent transmission of the virus."

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-vaccine-protection-idUSKBN287279

 

AstraZeneca's of course is the traditional non-mRNA vaccine.

 

[Flickserve]

All in all, the COVID vaccine development has been rushed through.

 

Usually a new vaccine has to undergo a lot of testing and scrutiny. A lot of data that's usually available (e.g. safety and efficacy confidence interval data) won't yet be fully known when this vaccine is rushed out. What you assume about  safety for previous vaccines may not be applicable to the new vaccine - it's worth having that at the back of the mind.

 

If side effects do happen, you can be sure the anti-vaxxers will be on it like a flash.

 

Edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flosequinan

 

This drug was pretty good. It helped some of my patients where other drugs didn't work and was really impressive. Yet, in a wider clinical trial, more people using it died. All that glitters is not gold.

[pan.kasper]

 

16 minutes ago, 889 said:

"Evidence so far suggests that COVID-19 vaccines developed by Pfizer-BioNtech, Moderna and AstraZeneca will help stop people developing the disease. Only AstraZeneca’s data, so far, shows signs that its shot may also help prevent transmission of the virus."

Fair enough, you're right about that point. We can only hope that the prevention transmission rate will also be high in at least some of the vaccines. One way or another, it's a step towards more the end of the pandemic and I absolutely believe that opening up of some borders by the spring time is not unreasonable at all.

 

5 minutes ago, Flickserve said:

All in all, the COVID vaccine development has been rushed through.

 

To a certain degree, you're right. But then it cannot be directly compared to the development process of other vaccines, as the amount of human and financial resources that were thrown into this one is unprecented. Also, different stages of testing have been done simultanously, which might potentially be dangerous to the participants of the tests, but at the end the same amount of people tested is the same as usually.

But yes, we don't know the long term effects of it

[Flickserve]

Just came across this article which is relevant to our discussion. British politicians are very optimistic but we have seen numerous failures from them over the past ten months. Hope this won't be another egg in the face - mind you , these politicians really do have a thick skin for failures.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/02/uk-put-speed-before-public-confidence-in-vaccine-says-eu-agency

[abcdefg]

@pan.kasper -- I'm with you in hoping that travel to China will be feasible again before too long. I try my best not to get overly hopeful, but I cannot help missing my Chinese friends.

 

Like you, I left all my stuff behind in my apartment to catch the next available flight out in January when it was clear the situation was rapidly becoming serious. I even abandoned my carefully-seasoned steel wok 炒锅 and my beloved Hong Kong knife 菜刀。 

 

   

 

 

https://www.chinese-forums.com/forums/topic/54306-my-new-hong-kong-knife-菜刀/?tab=comments#comment-416849 

https://www.chinese-forums.com/forums/topic/51217-wok-and-chopsticks/page/2/

                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

[Flickserve]

On 10/23/2020 at 7:16 PM, mungouk said:

The nasal penetration experience wasn't painful, but it was still unpleasantly weird.

 

I had it today. I was anticipating the worst from your description but it was only a little tickle

[Shelley]

Something interesting pointed by a medical friend of mine and once she told me it was really quite obvious.

 

This new vaccine isn't really new, its just an existing vaccine tweaked to fight Covid 19. Essentially the the part that attaches has been modified to fit Covid.

 

So lots of it has as it were already been through thorough testing.

[mungouk]

Further tightening of testing requirements for anyone travelling from USA to China, with effect from 23 December:

 

http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/notices/t1841416.htm

 

Quote

 

 

Notice on the Requirement Adjustment of the Nucleic Acid rt-PCR and IgM Serum Antibody Tests
2020/12/19

 

There has recently been a sharp increase of imported COVID-19 cases from the United States in China. Most of them can be traced to infection in transit, while a few are related to faulty operations of intermediary agencies and laboratories or to passengers' nonobservance of home quarantine requirements after testing. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) counted a total of nearly 17 million confirmed cases in the United States by December 18, and another 1.2 million to 2.3 million new cases are expected to be reported every week in early January 2021. To protect the health and safety of passengers and aircrew, and prevent a resurgence of COVID-19 in China, the Chinese embassy and consulates in the United States once again recommend travelers avoid all nonessential and non-urgent travels. Passengers who have urgent need of travel please follow the test guidelines and requirements listed below:

 

I. Starting from 0:00 on December 23, 2020 Pacific Time, IgM serum antibody test must be performed by medical professionals through venous blood sampling, and the test report should include the following terms: Serum, IgM, Venous, etc. Finger-prick blood testing is no longer accepted. The report also needs to clearly state testing methods, including: (1) Colloidal gold; (2) Chemiluminescence; (3) Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay; (4) Others, please specify.

 

II. Starting from 0:00 on December 23, 2020 Pacific Time, nucleic acid rt-PCR test report should include such terms as NAAT, RT-PCR, and specify sampling method, including: (1) Pharyngeal swab; (2) Nasopharyngeal swab; (3). Others, please specify.

 

III. In order to prevent infection from long-distance travel after testing, passengers traveling to China must get their samples for the nucleic acid rt-PCR and IgM serum antibody tests collected at the departure city and vicinity of their direct flight to China. The specific arrangements are as follows.

 

1. At present, direct flights from the United States to China fly from Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, New York, Detroit and Dallas.  

 

2. Passengers must allow for the time to take pharyngeal or nasopharyngeal swabs, venous blood and other sampling in the departure city and vicinity of their flight and wait in place for the test results before the flight. Upon receiving the reports, passengers should upload them immediately to apply for the health code for boarding.

 

3. Collected samples must be tested at a laboratory institution that is on the list released by the Chinese embassy and consulates. Please have prior confirmation with your sample collecting institution whether the samples are tested in such a laboratory. The list of laboratories will be announced soon and it will be adjusted from time to time. Please pay close attention to the notices and reminders on the websites of the Chinese embassy and consulates.

 

4. When applying for the health code, flight itinerary and proof of sampling at flight departure city and vicinity (such as clinic report, letter of proof, sampling-site photos or receipts, etc.) should be uploaded alongside with test reports and other materials. If the system does not have a special upload window for flight itinerary and proof of sampling city, please upload them in the window for submitting test reports.

 

5. Starting from 0:00 on December 23, 2020 Pacific Time, the Chinese embassy and consulates in the United States will only accept test results from the laboratories on the list, and they will be reviewed in conjunction with flight itinerary, sampling city, etc.

 

6. The airlines are only required to check the health code for international flights to China, but if your flight contains a domestic leg, there is a possibility that some airlines have additional requirements or their staff have different understanding as to checking the code. Please check with your airlines in advance or choose not to go to your international departure city via connecting flights.

 

IV. The Chinese embassy and consulates will verify the authenticity of test results with sample collecting and testing institutions. Passengers are advised to agree to disclosure of relevant information by the institutions to the Chinese embassy and consulates, including test results.

 

V. Passengers are strongly recommended to take personal protection very seriously to avoid infection in travel to the departure city and during the stay before departure. Please minimize public contact after testing. Some states have put in domestic travel restrictions or stay-at-home order, passengers are advised to inquire about local regulations in advance and comply.

 

VI. In case of any inconsistency between this Notice and the previous ones, this one shall prevail.

 

 

[mungouk]

On 12/10/2020 at 1:26 AM, Flickserve said:

On 10/23/2020 at 7:16 PM, mungouk said:

The nasal penetration experience wasn't painful, but it was still unpleasantly weird.

 

I had it today. I was anticipating the worst from your description but it was only a little tickle

 

Ah but that was the UK one. Amateur in comparison to Pudong Airport, which went through the nostril right to the back of the throat.

 

 

I knew that anatomically they could do that, but actually experiencing it was rather odd.