Why isn't China opening up again?

[Guest realmayo]

I can't help wondering: if China is due an economic crisis (not particularly covid-related), would it be more convenient to deal with the internal fallout under pandemic-control conditions rather than under normal conditions? But I'm probably overthinking....

[abcdefg]

Interesting speculation. Might help explain the delay in unlocking the door. 

[roddy]

I don't think so. They're well aware further lock-downs are only going to worsen both the economic situation and public frustration, and if there is any internal fallout to deal with in the future I can't imagine they'll be shy about imposing or re-imposing whatever measures they deem necessary.

[ChTTay]

As others mentioned, now that zero covid has been pushed so hard (and living with the virus looked down upon), for any changes to happen it seems a new narrative would be needed. It’s hard to think of what that might be beyond “we beat covid”. It can’t be declared “over” or “gone” with covid still clearly evident internationally. For the “we won” narrative you’d likely expect a big push for close to 100% vaccination first with even more media attention on in unvaxed vs vaxxed etc. Otherwise, it seems like zero will just continue in some form. I guess another option would be just to maintain zero covid but reduce the restrictions gradually to the point where the policy is basically in place only in name (like 3 day quarantine on entry with tests for x number of days after).
 

In Beijing life goes through clear cycles of normality and restrictions within the city. We might get a good stretch of normality here where people relax a bit (noticeably). Then another city is locked down or 1 case is found in a market in Shunyi or at the airport and tension returns - both the feeling and physical restrictions. Leaving and coming back into Beijing is a different story. How strict the measures are depends on China-wide outbreaks and those within Beijing. One thing that now seems permanent here is testing every 3 days for everyone. It’s this that sort of gives me a bit more hope for leaving and coming back. They have been able to react much quicker if they do find cases because everyone is being tested all the time.

 

It’s hard to speculate whether economic factors would cause a change in course and an opening up. I feel like only social unrest caused by economic downturn could cause a rethink. 

[abcdefg]

On 9/2/2022 at 7:26 PM, ChTTay said:

One thing that now seems permanent here is testing every 3 days for everyone.

I didn't realize that was being done. That's a lot of tests. 

[ChTTay]

On 9/3/2022 at 11:16 AM, abcdefg said:

was being done

In Beijing, yes. I think elsewhere , no. 
 

Basically it’s community based testing so the sites are usually near where people live. For me, it’s within the compound so very convenient. It’s free of course. They just take your name and ID. For Chinese people it’s just a photo of the ID card. 

[889]

" . . . for any changes to happen it seems a new narrative would be needed. It’s hard to think of what that might be beyond 'we beat covid.' It can’t be declared 'over' or 'gone' with covid still clearly evident internationally."

 

Just stop testing and scouring for cases. Covid will be gone in China overnight. It's not like the newspapers will be reporting otherwise.

[vellocet]

On 9/3/2022 at 8:26 AM, ChTTay said:

you’d likely expect a big push for close to 100% vaccination first

 

I thought that was the plan to begin with.  They've had two years; isn't vaccination pretty much universal by now?  

 

On 9/3/2022 at 12:29 PM, ChTTay said:

In Beijing, yes. I think elsewhere , no. 

 

Can't go anywhere without a 48 hour test here.  They were lax for a while, but a small outbreak in the countryside a few weeks ago started the panic again.  For a while they had all the little testing centers that were open irregularly open all the time.  There are several that are only open on Monday and Wednesday mornings or what have you.  They also gave us a break by making the timer start ticking from the time the test results were published instead of when the test was taken.  This gives you another 6-12 hours.  

[ChTTay]

On 9/3/2022 at 6:18 PM, vellocet said:

vaccination pretty much universal by now? 

Not from what I’ve read. low rates in elderly for example . 
 

The point I was making above was that it doesn’t matter what the reality is. If it looks like back tracking or suddenly changing their minds after going on about zero for 2 years or if there’s a chance of losing face… then it can’t change. Need an “out” somehow. 

 

On 9/3/2022 at 4:30 PM, 889 said:

Just stop testing and scouring for cases. Covid will be gone in China overnight. It's not like the newspapers will be reporting otherwise.

If XJP has personally pushed zero then, again, I think stopping Zero needs to look good.

 

I have heard in some smaller cities they have loosened up quite a lot. I guess they could just quietly drop the whole thing and hope. 

[ChTTay]

On 9/3/2022 at 6:18 PM, vellocet said:

They also gave us a break by making the timer start ticking from the time the test results were published instead of when the test was taken.

Similar thing here. It seems if you’re test results come out the morning or the day of you get “day zero” on the kit. 
 

[Publius]

On 9/3/2022 at 8:45 PM, ChTTay said:

It seems if you’re test results come out the morning or the day of you get “day zero” on the kit. 

Beijing fixed that "bug" at the beginning of July.

[ChTTay]

On 9/3/2022 at 9:15 PM, Publius said:

Beijing fixed that "bug" at the beginning of July

Nah, we still get day zeros. Had one today! 

[Publius]

On 9/3/2022 at 9:18 PM, ChTTay said:

Nah, we still get day zeros. Had one today! 

Different things.

 

Before:

Say, you get tested at 7 PM Jun 1st, and the result comes out at 2 AM Jun 2nd. You have "0 day" for Jun 2nd, "1 day" for Jun 3rd, "2 days" for Jun 4th, "3 days" for Jun 5th, at which point you must do a new test.

If you can make sure the result doesn't come out before midnight, you only need to do it every four days: 1, 5, 9, 13...

 

Now:

If you get tested at 8 AM July 1st, and the result comes out at 8 PM, then you have "0 day" for the remaining few hours of July 1st. July 2nd will be "1 day".

If you get tested at 7 PM July 1st, and the result comes out at 2 AM July 2nd, it will show "1 day" for July 2nd, "2 days" for July 3rd, "3 days" for July 4th.

No loophole. You have to do the test every three days: 1, 4, 7, 10, 13...

[889]

" . . . could just quietly drop the whole thing and hope."

 

Hope? Practically the entire world except China and Japan has dropped the whole thing. No need for "hope." Just take a scientific approach and look at what's happened everywhere else.

[ChTTay]

On 9/3/2022 at 10:38 PM, 889 said:

Hope? Practically the entire world except Chin

Logic doesn’t apply here ?all we have is hope …

[markhavemann]

On 9/4/2022 at 7:52 AM, ChTTay said:

Logic doesn’t apply here ?all we have is hope …

Everyone seems to be forgetting how India was literally burning bodies in the streets because their crematoriums couldn't keep up with the bodies, and that wasn't so long ago.

 

The Chinese healthcare system is absolutely not able to cope with a countrywide covid outbreak. Anyone who's ever been to a Chinese hospital must have some idea of how packed they already are.

 

Based on what little I hear from the west it does seem like vaccines or working and the new strains of Covid aren't as severe, but is that enough to make it so that if China opens up it wouldn't be a repeat of what happened in India? (a legitimate question for anyone who is more informed than I am).

 

 

[ChTTay]

On 9/4/2022 at 9:28 AM, markhavemann said:

Based on what little I hear from the west it does seem like vaccines or working and the new strains of Covid aren't as severe, but is that e

Hence my mentioning perhaps (lack of) confidence in domestic vaccines as one of many factors why zero is continuing. Hard to say anything for sure. I got the vaccine here originally in the hope it’d mean more freedom of movement domestically but it hasn’t worked out like that.

 

[889]

Anyone pointing to India seems to be living in the past and unaware there's a relatively benign variant now. Just where in the open world are bodies being burned today? That's what counts: today.

[Insectosaurus]

That was also at a time when India had a first dose coverage of less than five percent.

[Guest realmayo]

I think it has been established that vaccines do not stop Omicron infection and do not stop Omicron tranmission. That suggests that vaccination won't stop people getting sick. That suggests that a certain percentage of old and vulnerable will need hospitalisation, and a smaller percentage will die regardless of whether they receive hospital care or not.

 

If China stopped its zero Covid policy, Omicron would rapidly spread through the whole population. How confident are people that Omicron would (a) not lead to lots of deaths, and (b) not lead to lots of hospitals being overwhelmed?

 

And if you are basing that confidence on the situation today in e.g. india, isn't it worth considering that there are fewer covid-vulnerable people alive in India today than there were before covid began, and also that there is a difference between a medical system coping with an established, endemic disease, and a medical system trying to cope with the first wave of a super-infectious disease hitting an entire population at the same time?

 

Now you could argue that every country has to go through that sooner or later, and China should just 'rip off the bandage' and take the pain in one go. But let's say a year from now the dominant variant is still Omicron, and a very efficient anti-Omicron vaccine is available. Or let's say that a super-weak variant replaces Omicron globally. Either of those scenarios would mean that China could at that point open up and justifiably boast the best anti-Covid record in the world.

 

So I can see several good reasons for staying locked down. And if they do end up going onto a quasi-war footing, e.g. "Smash Covid! Survive the economic downturn! Resist American imperialism!", best to do that once you've sorted out long-term leadership questions.