WTF just happened to Grandpa Hu?

[imron]

Anyone have any idea what was going on here, and/or what people are speculating about on Chinese social media?

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63358627

 

P.S Hu is looking very old and frail here. 

[TheBigZaboon]

Xi doesn't even seem to care about appearances anymore...

 

Darker days are coming, I'm sure...

 

TBZ

[Guest realmayo]

Memo to self: do not break wind when sat next to Mr Xi.

[Guest realmayo]

On 10/23/2022 at 2:38 AM, imron said:

Hu is looking very old and frail here. 

I still find a full head of gray hair quite shocking: it used to be seen only on politicians who had been in prison long enough for their hair dye to wear off. But I agree he didn't look right: absolutely no idea of it was a power play or whether Hu was ill, maybe that's what makes Chinese politics so interesting, we may well never ever know. Empty chair felt quite smybolic though (no living predecessors worthy of the name).

 

[sanchuan]

My money's on the symbolism of the empty chair. Hu was the first chairman to resign from all political posts at the end of his two administrations to model the concept of a smooth transition of power for China. His very presence is symbolic of that notion as well as of liberal policies and rule of law, or at least some appearance thereof. 

 

The semi-official theory is that he may have been removed simply on account of his health (and, yes, he may be showing signs of dementia). But they had just been meeting away from cameras as a big group and Hu had been a full participant up until then. If they didn't think it right to let him stay on for the whole thing, why not have him sit it out before televised proceedings started, rather than wait to make television out of him being formally escorted away as first order of business? Let's remember that as a (mianzi-based) shame culture, the public humiliation/ostrasisation of his person is just as important a step as the unspoken renunciation of his legacy.

[imron]

I don’t buy the health theory.

 

I can’t imagine anything so pressing to his health that he couldn’t just sit there. 

 

Having him publicly removed sends a very clear message about who is charge and ‘hu’ isn’t. 

[sanchuan]

Must be noted the scene seems to be censored in mainland China. But this is likely just to prevent people discussing politics in public fora. And, anyway, the target audience was there already - in the plenum. 

 

The power move hypothesis is also corroborated by the fact that the prime minister, Hu's protegé (whose shoulder Hu touches for comfort just before being dragged away), has been demoted in the reshuffle.

[markhavemann]

I read somewhere that he reached over and tried to take a piece paper from in front of Xi before he was taken out? Can't find the link now though. 

[Balthazar]

Bill Bishop is sceptical of the purge/demonstration theory (from yesterday's newsletter):

 

"The closing ceremony was marred by the removal of Hu. Hu is old and in poor health, but the removal, seen in this video from AFP, has sparked speculation that he is being purged. I am very skeptical of that speculation but we do not know what happened. Hu’s son Hu Haifeng is the Party Secretary of Lishui, Zhejiang, and was in the audience as a delegate to the Congress. If he has no political problems in the near future then that would probably be an indication that his father had some sort of medical issue rather than being dragged out in a purge.

No matter what the cause, this scene was humiliating, and image of Hu Jintao being led out is a perfect symbol of Xi’s absolute decimation of the “Communist Youth League” faction.

Xinhua has since tweeted that it was a health issue:

The CCTV Evening news report on the 20th Party Congress closing ceremony shows Hu Jintao at the 2:52 mark. If Hu were really purged as some are speculating I highly doubt that CCTV would show him like this in the report."

[Guest realmayo]

The fact that the goons seem to make a show of waving his red folder in front of him, as if in a reassuring way, 'yes off you come, no we've got your stuff, I know it's important to you, don't worry' is a tick for the 'ill and confused' box*. Don't forget, Hu is the same age as Biden.

Also an observation: Li KQ looked thoroughly wretched throughout.

 

*Also: by the time the cameras are rolling, that folder is already on his neighbour's desk.

[Guest realmayo]

Here is fuller footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQAxkh8-O-E

I find XI's buddy Wang particularly interesting (starts off in far right of screen).

[sanchuan]

Bishop's take's certainly valid (thanks, @Balthazar, for pasting it here). That the evening news showed him seating is consistent with the facts that the whole Hu scene is censored news in China, as I noted above. No-one can claim it was an explicit part of formal proceedings.

 

But it could have been a not-so-low-key gesture for the benefit of the party members present. The mere fact of it certainly was: it's an unnecessarily humiliating way to treat a former president, especially if also made to show he's in a frail mental state (which would otherwise be rather taboo). It may well be that the old man needed a rest because he needs "time to recuperate recently" (however suspiciously recycled this sort of official explanation is). But I personally disagree that to show and tell as much in the middle of such formal proceedings should be considered par for the course. Snafus will happen even in the most choreographed of events, but anything that conspicuous involving the handful of maskless VIPs in the front row - and the one sitting right next to the most powerful man in China, no less - cannot have been entirely improvised.

 

Even going by the official version of events, the former president was allowed to be seated and then ostensibly removed against his will. However censored or explained away, this treatment speaks for itself and analysts shouldn't go along and normalise it.

[anonymoose]

Edit: Actually, I've watched the clip again, and I'm not sure any more, so I will refrain from commenting for now.

[abcdefg]

On 10/23/2022 at 3:30 AM, imron said:

Having him publicly removed sends a very clear message about who is charge and ‘hu’ isn’t. 

 

That is my uninformed assessment too. Could an anti-corruption investigation be next? 

[Guest realmayo]

If it was all stage-managed from the start, and timed to coincide with when the cameras were allowed in, then it suggests that Xi wasn't in that powerful position to begin with. Because if you're already powerful, you don't need to do anything like this. From what the newspapers say, Hu's faction was smashed a while ago.

 

As for why he might have suddenly taken ill: I think I read that they'd already been sitting there for two hours?

 

A 'middle-ground' explanation might be that he'd only at that moment said that he would oppose the new line-up, and would do so publicly.

 

I think the guessing game would be easier if we knew why his red booklet was, at the time the cameras started to roll, already not in front of him.

 

[Moshen]

I'm told that the Chinese media are saying that Hu was diabetic and had some kind of alarm on him that went off saying that his body had reached a danger zone, and then he was escorted off for his own safety.

[Balthazar]

Wang Zhian's take:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dQ34ImiTzc

 

Edit: Three attempts to enter as embedded youtube-video, I give up. (Wish there was a "preview" option before posting ?)

[abcdefg]

On 10/24/2022 at 3:22 AM, Moshen said:

I'm told that the Chinese media are saying that Hu was diabetic and had some kind of alarm on him that went off saying that his body had reached a danger zone, and then he was escorted off for his own safety.

 

That is believable. In the video clip, he does look kind of befuddled and unsteady, like someone whose blood sugar has gone way out of whack. Cannot really see if he is shaky and diaphoretic. Sitting at the table two hours, he could have missed his mid-morning snack. That could easily affect a diabetic, particularly if he were insulin-dependent. 

[vellocet]

On 10/23/2022 at 6:28 PM, Balthazar said:

Hu’s son Hu Haifeng is the Party Secretary of Lishui, Zhejiang

Really?  That's near here.  I can testify that Lishui is a rural nowhere best known for short-distance (45 minute drive) tourism as its main attraction, the Nanxi River, is one of the very few unpolluted rivers in China.  It's so clean you can drink from it.  Lishui is a literal backwater and I can't imagine it's on the road to a powerful future anywhere.  Especially if the son is 20 years younger than the father and at the age where he should be in senior leadership positions.  

 

That's what I've heard the effect of Xi crowning himself emperor is: since there isn't any 10 year term limit any more, Xi's refusal to leave office is causing a logjam at the top.  They're all as high as they can get, and nobody can get promoted as long as Xi's hogging it all for himself.  This could cause a palace coup but I wouldn't count on it, with the reality of modern surveillance being far beyond what Orwell imagined in his dystopian novels.  

[Brian US]

Anyone have thoughts or sources on what he said to Xi before leaving?