HK, you're going down!

[td36285n]

Complacency, I believe, will become HK's downfall. And....also the fact that its big brother want a family reunion...one that never ends. Without a revolution or WWIII, I don't see how HK will retain its culture, dialect, and affluence for very long. Even now, HK's muscle are going into atrophy. Here's why:

1.) Where HK used to handle a large percentage of China's foreign trade, the world can now go directly to their corporate "paradise". Well, you can say that HK has competitive advantage in terms of innovation in technology, but China is nurturing some really bright students, and its not afraid to put their money into their universities.

2.) If you've ever lived in HK for an extended period of time, it probably came to your attention that HK's college students, for the most part, put more efforts in extracurricular activities than their academic responsibilities. Meanwhile, their mainland counterparts are under strict discipline from university policies to excel in their academic courseworks. One can blame the media and HK govt officials for failing its students.

3.) China will reclaim the entirety of HK's sovereignty in 2047. (note: Was it mere coincidence that Wong Kar-Wai had Mr. Chow [Tony Leung Chiu Wai] live in room 2047? I think not! If you've seen "2046" then you'll know what I'm talking about.)

These are only my opinions. Feel free to chime in and tell me I got it all wrong and HK will kick China's booty...ok, maybe not to that extreme. But please, I want to hear what others think, especially those who are residing in HK or are urban jungle anthropologists.

[DrinkDrankDrunk]

td, would you care to elaborate on why not-retaining their culture and dialet will lead to their "downfall?"

As for affluence, your logic falls victim to the fixed pie fallacy. Increase in wealth on the mainland does not mean the NECESSITY of reduction of wealth in HK. The amount of wealth in the economy is not fixed, and the mainland or HK do not have to gain wealth at the expense of the other. HK may very well be able to maintain and even increase its median affluence in this situation.

I do agree that complacency is a human flaw(if you believe in the hare and the turtle fable).

[anonymoose]

I don't think Hong Kong will suffer a downfall so much as just a narrowing gap between itself and the larger Chinese cities. HK will definitely lose out as access to the Chinese market becomes more direct, but HK has enough of its own attractions and advantages to sustain an economy without those benefits from China.

2.) If you've ever lived in HK for an extended period of time, it probably came to your attention that HK's college students, for the most part, put more efforts in extracurricular activities than their academic responsibilities. Meanwhile, their mainland counterparts are under strict discipline from university policies to excel in their academic courseworks. One can blame the media and HK govt officials for failing its students.

This is only anecdotal, but from what I've heard, in the mainland there is great pressure on students to get places at the best universities, but once they are in, the pressure goes and they can then slack off. Perhaps this was just the view of the person I was talking to, but it caught my attention because I personally thought university required much more effort than school.

[skylee]

China will reclaim the entirety of HK's sovereignty in 2047.

Not sure if I understand this. Hong Kong is part of China.

[wushijiao]

China will reclaim the entirety of HK's sovereignty in 2047

I think this refers to when the "Two Systems" is officially set to end.

[charlescpp]

but Deng also said, "since it will haven't changed for 50 years, there will be no reason to change then"

[roddy]

I don't think you're making any sense. As pointed out above, HK might become less affluent relative to China, but that doesn't mean a fall in absolute affluence or standard of living. It's not the downfall of Hong Kong, it's the rise of China.

As for culture and dialect, natives of Guangdong seem to have coped fairly well, I don't see how Hong Kong will fare any worse.

I agree that China's university students don't work as hard as they'd like you to think, and even if what you say is true you could easily say that Hong Kong is producing more rounded graduates than the mainland.

HK will kick China's booty

It's not a fight.

[geraldc]

6 million vs 1.2 billion is hardly a fair fight.

[gougou]

I don't think you're making any sense. As pointed out above, HK might become less affluent relative to China, but that doesn't mean a fall in absolute affluence or standard of living. It's not the downfall of Hong Kong, it's the rise of China.

I'm no expert on this topic (nor on any other ), but I believe many international companies wanting to trade with China, or the other way round, currently go through Hong Kong because of laxer regulations there.

If in 40 years regulations are the same in China and Hong Kong, many companies might take their business out of Hong Kong in favor of more direct trade routes, thereby creating (absolute) reductions in affluence.

Or not?

[mr. fanglang]

I think the provocative OP was just meant to bait us into a vigorous defense of HK. When mainland china adopts an impartial transparent legal system, a fully convertible currency, a fully open securities market, a free media not subject to censorship, an open farily clean government subject to checks and balances, that's when shanghai will have a chance to take HK's place and status in the world today. Question is, how soon will that happen?

[roddy]

No, I'm sure you are right - but would you want 100% of 1980's trade, or 10% of 2020's?

[Ian_Lee]

The OP apparently made some wrong assumptions.

(1) Hong Kong does not excel in innovation in technology. Due to the different natures of its economcy, HK specializes in producing students majoring in Accounting, Finance, marketing, MBA, Law, Fashion Design, medical....etc while Mainland Universities specialize in creating students in Engineering and Science.

Even so, in some areas of Science research, HK still outpaces Mainland. For example, WHO prefers to have its lab in HKU.

(2) Most Mainland college students are very bright and hardworking. But seldom do they involve in any major social movements (of course politically they are discouraged to do so). But HK college students are the major backbones in every social movement since '70s. Remember that college students are the "Conscience of the Society". If college students only know studying, the society can hardly advance at all!

(3) While HK gradually loses the advantage of intrepot trade, now it has become the financial capital of Greater China -- each year dozens of Mainland and Taiwan enterprises IPO there to suck in $billions.

(4) China already assumes full sovereignty over HK. And what is the use of HK becoming another Shenzhen or Shanghai to China?

[Ian_Lee]

And of course if HK completely copies 100% Mainland's culture, then that means the doom of HK.

What is part of the Mainland culture? Corruption -- I don't blame CCP since most Chinese dynasties+ROC period were very corrupt.

But of course corruption does not deter MNCs from pouring funds into Mainland due to its gigantic market size.

But if HK is as corrupt as Mainland, who would want to set up its Asia-Pacific Regional Headquarter there?

[td36285n]

td, would you care to elaborate on why not-retaining their culture and dialet will lead to their "downfall?"

I never said that culture and dialect are the cause of their downfall. I'm just saying that they will be the the effects. I think that within the coming years, more and more mainland Chinese will trickle down to Hong Kong and make it their home. Meanwhile, many Hong Kong residents will continually emigrate from the territory. The youth culture in Hong Kong has always changed one way or another, and quite frequently also.

Can you imagine having to gain fluency in both Cantonese, Mandarin, and English? It's hard enough for many HK residents to gain fluency in just English. I think the use of Cantonese within HK will decline, as newer generations will be more versed in Mandarin and English.

The amount of wealth in the economy is not fixed, and the mainland or HK do not have to gain wealth at the expense of the other. HK may very well be able to maintain and even increase its median affluence in this situation.

The service sector within Hong Kong accounts for 85% (2001 est.) of its GDP. Shipping, financial services, and tourism comprise the bulk of this category. With a service-oriented economy, this means that foreign investments are vital to how well they do as a whole. However, much of the wealth are concentrated within the hands of a handful. Sure, Hong Kong has a large percentage of small, medium enterprises (SMEs) to large enterprises, but how much wealth do they have?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Hong_Kong

I think this refers to when the "Two Systems" is officially set to end.

Yes, thank you. I meant the HK (SAR).

but Deng also said, "since it will haven't changed for 50 years, there will be no reason to change then"

I don't know about others, but I have mix feelings about Deng's integrity. Then again, I also have mix feelings about my own leader.

It's not a fight.

Yes, it's not a fight, but I wasn't speaking in the literal sense nor figuratively. Just jokingly.

If in 40 years regulations are the same in China and Hong Kong, many companies might take their business out of Hong Kong in favor of more direct trade routes, thereby creating (absolute) reductions in affluence.

This is what I'm banking on. Literally and metaphorically. I do feel that once China reform its financial sector, it will be safer and enticing to do some business with them. First though, they need to stop lending to people who can pay back the loans and punish corrupt officials/businessmen.

I think the provocative OP was just meant to bait us into a vigorous defense of HK. When mainland china adopts an impartial transparent legal system, a fully convertible currency, a fully open securities market, a free media not subject to censorship, an open farily clean government subject to checks and balances, that's when shanghai will have a chance to take HK's place and status in the world today. Question is, how soon will that happen?

Yes, I wanted A LOT of people to defend HK. That's the fun of being a minority. And I was thinking about the steps that China needs to take to fully make it a developed country. Once China surpasses the U.S. in GDP, I wonder how the world will re-think its Cold War actions in hindsight.

--------------------------------------------------------------

I'm only stating what I believe are obvious from the deceptions that Hong Kong elites and other experts want us to believe. The definitive way for the world to prove me wrong is if in 2047 Hong Kong's majority will be speaking Cantonese like their mouths are creased with oil, continue to play mahjong regularly, and a more equal distribution of wealth exists in residents who will no longer reside in government-owned housings. When time has not come to pass, events cannot take place. Truism? Perhaps that can be the topic of a new thread.

Cheers!

[Ian_Lee]

td36285n:

FYI People from Mainland always came/come to HK to settle down. 160 years ago HK was just a tiny fishing village with only thousands population. There were waves of massive immigration into HK whenever there was unpheaval in Mainland, i.e. between 1948-52, over 2 million people from Mainland settled in HK.

Hundreds of thousands Shanghaiese settled in certain part of HK which was called "Little Shanghai". But what happened decades afterwards? All those 1st, 2nd, 3rd,....generation became Cantonese speakers.

Famous tycoons like Li Ka Shing is not Cantonese either. But he has to learn to speak Cantonese.

You have made the wrong assumption that whenever Mainlander move to settle in HK, they stick to speak Mandarin only. That may be the case in Guangzhou. But that is not the case in HK.

Even if he insists so, his son/duaghter will quickly adapt to Cantonese because that is the language used in the school as medium of teaching and the language of communication between classmates.

HK is a service economy (That is why it needs much fewer engineers and scientists who proportionally contributes less to the economy). But last year it took in US$40 billion FDI -- higher than any other places in the world except Mainland China.

And the wealth gap in HK is huge -- but much narrower than that of Mainland. So?

Even though I hate to guess, I think that most likely you are from Mainland and has been intentionally or uninterntionally slighted in HK during your stay there.

[td36285n]

Even so, in some areas of Science research, HK still outpaces Mainland. For example, WHO prefers to have its lab in HKU.

Really? In HKU??? I smell some grease monkeys at play.

(2) Most Mainland college students are very bright and hardworking. But seldom do they involve in any major social movements (of course politically they are discouraged to do so). But HK college students are the major backbones in every social movement since '70s. Remember that college students are the "Conscience of the Society". If college students only know studying, the society can hardly advance at all!

I somehow recall 1989's Tiananmen Square incident to be quite dramatic. But anyways, the Chinese government has utilized the economy as a deterrence for protests and such.

(3) While HK gradually loses the advantage of intrepot trade, now it has become the financial capital of Greater China -- each year dozens of Mainland and Taiwan enterprises IPO there to suck in $billions.

Well, China is trying to reform its financial industry. It would be disastrous if it doesn't diversify right now.

(4) China already assumes full sovereignty over HK. And what is the use of HK becoming another Shenzhen or Shanghai to China?

It retains sovereignty, but you can't say HK residents are just as free as the Mainland Chinese. What does countries of power want? Just more power. em...I'll refrain from going into the conflict within the Middle East.

But if HK is as corrupt as Mainland, who would want to set up its Asia-Pacific Regional Headquarter there?

It's hard to see complete transparency within any government, no matter what political ideology that government stands for.

[td36285n]

Even though I hate to guess, I think that most likely you are from Mainland and has been intentionally or uninterntionally slighted in HK during your stay there.

I am not from the Mainland nor was I born there. In fact, I wasn't even born in Hong Kong or the US. However, I have been to HK and China for periods of time.

Hundreds of thousands Shanghaiese settled in certain part of HK which was called "Little Shanghai". But what happened decades afterwards? All those 1st, 2nd, 3rd,....generation became Cantonese speakers.

These people assimilated because who would want to return to China when you can stay in a more liberal Hong Kong? The situation is different now. Even HK is stressing the importance of learning Mandarin.

You have made the wrong assumption that whenever Mainlander move to settle in HK, they stick to speak Mandarin only. That may be the case in Guangzhou. But that is not the case in HK.

When the school system and businesses in HK changes, why can't Mainland Chinese stick to speaking Mandarin?

And the wealth gap in HK is huge -- but much narrower than that of Mainland. So?

I was trying to make a point that the majority of HK residents live on salaries that have made them tools of the rich. Young professionals are living at home because they can't even afford decent housings. If your flat costs five times as much as a nice house (w/ lawn) in Canada and Australia, wouldn't you think about emigrating?

[Ian_Lee]

td36285n:

The basic reason why Mainlander want to settle in HK is still unchanged: They want to live in a more liberal HK -- though of course the gap (political liberty) is much narrower than the '50s, '60s and '70s.

When there are much more economic opportunities in Mainland, why are still so many people from Mainland wanting to move to settle in Hong Kong? And those immigrants are not confined to poor rural folks. Celebrities like 4-times Olympic Gold Medalist Fu Mingxia chose to live in HK and not Mainland and gave up $millions of commercials contracts.

Of course HK emphasizes Mandarin now like how they emphasize English -- both as working languages.

Regarding change of the medium of teaching in school system, it is well nigh impossible to implement unless there is a certain degree of consensus in the society.

And regarding emigration, the outflow has stopped a long time ago. The annual 5,000 quota to US has not been fully utilized while the 20,000 quotas for Mainland and Taiwan respectively have always been oversubscribed. In Canada, the immigrant from Mainland has outgrown those from HK a long time ago.

And I don't know where you still get the information that HK's flat is 5 times more expensive (that was before '97). I live in Honolulu. Many condominium apartments ask for over US$1 million which is in par or even more than the same size apartment in HK is asking for.

And most Chinese (not only from HK) hate yard work. They pour concrete all over their front and back yards!

[Ian_Lee]

td36285n:

Even so, in some areas of Science research, HK still outpaces Mainland. For example, WHO prefers to have its lab in HKU.

Really? In HKU??? I smell some grease monkeys at play.

Please read:

http://www.paho.org/english/dd/ais/be_v24n1-SARS.htm

___________________________________

As part of the global response to the SARS outbreak, WHO has established a laboratory research network consisting of 11 laboratories in 9 countries: Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Hong Kong, the Netherlands, Singapore, United Kingdom and United States of America.

_____________________________________

[td36285n]

I should try your method to save time....

Ian_Lee:

Ok, I'll concede that Mainland Chinese wants to live in a more liberal HK, but how will that last? Until 2047? If I'm in my 40s, I wouldn't mind living in HK, since I'd probably be dead by the time something big happens.

If I had the money, I would want to live in HK, too. Warmer weather, decent clubs, good food, efficient public transportation, etc. But different people go to HK for different reasons.

Maybe HK should conduct a census on whether they should use Mandarin as the primary form of teaching.

Once the census favors Mandarin, working language becomes an ever increasingly household language.

There are proportionately more Mainland Chinese than HK citizens, so I wouldn't be surprised if Canada had more Mainland Chinese.

Honolulu's housings are expensive. I wasn't comparing Honolulu to HK. Are there more HK immigrants in Hawaii than Canada or Australia? I really have no idea on the figures.

Yard work may not be fun, but it helps you keep fit.

"Nobody wants a f*t*ss" - Kanye West (College Drop Out)