Greying China

[skunkpuppy]

See this article for a focus on the problem. China's one-child policy (and modernisation of the family unit) may lead China to become a grey society long before it has enough money to support these old people, thus severely limiting its economic growth.

The Greying China and the Economics of Ageing

My question is: why doesn't the government review the one-child policy? Why aren't they heading everyone's warnings? Why do they want to let India-- which does not have a greying population problem-- overtake China?

I can understand that rural populations should be controlled because resources for education and health are scarce, but how about richer urban populations? As I understand it, the policy now is the reverse-- minorities and farmers sometimes get to have a "bonus child" especially if the firstborn was a daughter.

[wai ming]

I seem to remember reading somewhere (don't remember where, and it was a while ago ) that from 1997 onwards, two people who were both only children (no brothers or sisters) are allowed to have two children instead of just one? If that's the case, that would be a reversal of the policy as well.

[trevelyan]

First of all, it's a bad idea to take anything which cites Mark Steyn seriously. Second of all, the entire post is basically a neo-conservative effort to drum up a demographic crisis which makes the reform (read: elimination) of social security measures sound inevitable. There is no reason to believe it. Official projections (available at www.ssa.gov) suggest that demographic transitions in America will require a slight tax adjustment over the next thirty or so years. There is no crisis.

If we want to survive as a hyperpower throughout the 21st century, it’s time to kick butt and take names in Congress, cramming economic salvation down the Democrats’ throats whether they want it or not.

This is absolutely hilarious given that the current US administration is the most fiscally irresponsible since Reagan. The real problem they don't want to address is that the current administration has been financing its budget deficit in large part by mass borrowing from the Social Security trust fund, and that the government will be required to start paying these funds back sometime around 2017.

Hopefully someone will hold these morons to account in the future.

[wushijiao]

I remember reading that economic booms are often linked to the percentage of people with working ages 18-65, compared to the people in non-working ages. When Europe and Japan boomed from 1945-80's, the percentage of young people was much greater than the percentage of social dependants. China, or more accurately, Chinese people will have to eat some bitterness to get through the upcoming demographic hardships.

Already, the effect of the "One Child Policy" are affecting wages/economic growth. From the New York Times:

According to Goldman Sachs and other experts, the beginnings of a demographic shift have already been reducing the number of young people between the ages of 15 and 24, who make up much of the migrant labor work force. Similarly, the number of women between the ages of 18 and 35 began falling this year, according to census data.

The women are critical because China's factories like to hire many women from the countryside, who have been willing to migrate for three-to-five-year stints to earn money as factory workers before returning home with bundles of cash and fresh hopes of finding a marriage partner.

China's one-child policy is also aggravating the shortages. With the first generation of young people born under the one-child policy now emerging from postsecondary education, many of them see varied opportunities not available to an earlier generation.

"When the economic reform started, migrant workers were very hard-working, and usually stayed for a long time at factory jobs, but the new generation has changed," said Chen Guanghan, a professor at Zhongshan University in Hong Kong. "They are reluctant to take factory jobs that are harsh and pay very little."

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/03/business/03labor.html?ei=5087&en=a8d7fcab898e2b8e&ex=1144209600&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1144093483-w6FkSoeSemt7kF4GfpMelQ

I think the Chinese state should be able to survive the coming demographic crisis better than countries in Europe and North America, who have promised lucrative pensions to millions of old people. In China, the burden of supporting the elderly will mainly fall on the shoulders of the (only) children, not the government. (In this sense, the Chinese system seems like the most extreme form of capitalism on earth.)

Korea, like China, had spent decades trying to fight over-population, until it suddenly realized it had an under-population problem. I think China could probably lessen the severity of this demographic crisis fairly easily if it wanted to. So, this shows that demographics won't necessarily doom China to not be a superpower.

http://www.chinese-forums.com/index.php?/topic/61-most-embarrassing-moment-while-learning-chinese97&highlight=korea+population

[skylee]

a professor at Zhongshan University in Hong Kong

I wonder where that university is ...

[mind_wander]

In my opinion, there should be an enforcement of "two-child policy" that way no one has to fight in court, in the injustice of the family system. This way both parents have one of each, later this could turn to be negative.

Hey if that don't work out, welcome to the US, the mexican's are coming over, why not others. Before entering, must first be a legal citizens, there is more room to fill, since in the US population rate is in the millions. Since, everyone is migrating everyday to another country to find a new better lifestyle. Both government systems still needs better reforms, by fixed previous mistakes.

[studentyoung]

Just slightly point out that it is not just a simple problem whether one-child or two –child, when we talk about the population policy. In fact the population policy must be made according to people’s age structure, people’s knowledge structure, social comprehensive living cost (including house price, educational fee, medical care, welfare, etc.), natural environment bearing ability and sustainable development.

The base of the population policy is continually to optimize people’s age and knowledge structure, so that the quality of human resources can be improved gradually and sustainably.

In the long run, it is not that terrible to see an under-population situation in China, but it is not so optimistic whether China can make a series of proper population policies to fit its sustainable development goal.

Thanks!

[mind_wander]

Well see how much China has change this problem, you are right about the social requirements of costs of living. I didn't think about that when I written a reply, since the cost of living in the US is higher, compared to living cost to China is equivalent to poverty level.

[Jack MacKelly]

It will hurt China someday but birth rates are lower in other nations

the looming eldery population is going to hit Italy or Japan long before it damages China, over-crowded nations like India however have an even bigger problem

http://www.pbs.org/adventuredivas/india/media/mass.jpg

http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/05/south_asia_india_train_crash/img/laun.jpg

http://homepage2.nifty.com/munesuke/india-bsasai-dikshabumi-crowd-2004.jpg

http://www.jeffiscool.com/pictures/IndiaTrain.jpg

Massive Over-Population, a total lack of infrastructure and huge social deficits