Real Estate: What kind of prescription is needed? by Zhou Tianyun

[studentyoung]

（房屋最基本的功能是居住，投资只是衍生的功能，人为地赋予房屋过多的投资属性，可能导致对投资者和对宏观经济的一系列影响。不宜人为赋予住房过多投资属性。）

(The basic function of housing is dwelling, and investment is just its derivative function. If we try to stress too much on its investment function, it might lead to a series of influence on investors and macro-economical situations. Therefore, it is not so proper to stress too much on its investment function.)

房地产： 需要什么药方？

Real Estate: What kind of prescription is needed?

gzdaily.dayoo.com 2006年05月15日来源：广州日报

Originated from: gzdaily.dayoo.com on May 15, 2006

作者：周天芸　

By Zhou, Tian Yun

（作者是中山大学岭南学院副教授）

(Associate Professor in Lingnan School in Zhong Shan University)

http://gzdaily.dayoo.com/html/2006-05/15/content_30518.htm

(translated by studentyoung)

1. 住房作为一种商品，具有消费品和投资品的双重属性。由此，房屋需求可以分为消费需求和投资需求两种，而不同的需求结构直接影响房产市场的价格。

Houses as some kind of commodity, has double attributes, i.e. as both consumer goods and an investment product Thus, the demand on houses can be divided into to consume and to invest. These two attributes can have different influences on housing price.

2. 住房的消费需求取决于个人的实际需要和支付能力，而个人实际需要和支付能力受到人口和收入水平的影响，由于这些因素短期内相对稳定，因此，消费需求是房地产市场的相对稳定部分，对房产市场起着基础性的支撑作用。

The consumption of housing depends on the personal actual demand and his purchasing power, and these two factors depend on the amount of population and income level. Because all these factors are relative stable, the demand on real estate market is relative stable, and they are all the basic support to the market.

3. 作为财富持有形式的住房投资需求主要取决于个人的财富数量、住房投资相对于其他资产的报酬和投资住房的实际报酬。住房的投资需求对于货币、资本、房产等市场的变化非常敏感，构成房产市场波动的主要部分，对房产市场的扩张和收缩产生催化作用。这是因为投资品的价格不遵循一般商品的供求规律，投资品市场没有均衡点，不存在均衡价格，其价格决定于未来的收益预期，其价格波动具有类似股票市场的“追涨杀跌”特征。

As a form of wealth possession, the investment on housing depends on the investor’s wealth, the contrast between the profit from housing investment and the profit from other kinds of investment, and the real profit from housing investment. The demand of housing investment is quite sensitive to the changes of market factors like currency supply, capital and real estate, and they are all the main factors to the fluctuations in housing market, and cause the housing market to expand or shrink. It is because investment products don’t follow the laws of common goods. The market of investment products has no equalization points, and the price in it is decided on the expectation to the profit in the future, which makes the fluctuations in price have the character like what’s in the stock market, i.e. “to be pursued when it is up and to be discarded when it is down”.

4. 我国目前的住房需求已经偏向于投资，其理论基础和现实表现都印证了这点。从理论基础分析看，自1998年以来住房价格持续上升，且住房交易市场日趋完善和活跃，住房具有投资品的全部特征；同时，据调查，目前中国70%的居民无力承受高企的房价，住房日益成为一种投资品而非消费品，投资需求成为引导中国房价走向的主要因素。络绎不绝的投资者，不断把房价向上推动，相关数据也表明，住宅的投资需求在中国住房需求中占的比重日趋增加。

At present, the housing demand in China leans to investment, which has been proved on theoretic bases and its actual performance. From theoretic bases, the housing price has been going up since 1998, the housing transactions have been improved gradually and become more and more active, and the houses in the market have all the characters as an investment product. Meanwhile, according to researches, 70% residents in China can’t afford an apartment. Housing gradually becomes a kind of investment product, not consumer goods, and investment demand becomes the main point to lead the direction of the housing price. Numerous investors continue to push up housing price, while relevant figures have proved the demand of housing investment is increasing its proportion in China’s overall housing demand.

5. 但是，房屋最基本的功能是居住，投资只是衍生的功能，人为地赋予房屋过多的投资属性，可能导致对投资者和对宏观经济的一系列影响。

However, the basic function of housing is dwelling, and investment is just its derivative function. If we try to stress too much on its investment function, it might lead to a series of influence on investors and macro-economical situations.

6. 住房成为投资品，导致住房价格虚高，从而使投资者风险增加：由于房产的投资品属性，其价格取决于未来的收益预期，因此，市场的需求和价格走势呈现正相关关系，即价格越上涨，投资需求越增加，正是这种特殊价格形成机制，使房产市场表现为暴涨暴跌的特点，而房产投资市场的价格在经历长期不断的上涨后，极易产生价格泡沫。

Housing as a kind of investment product leads to the housing price goes up abnormally high, and consequently adds more risk to investors. Housing has the investment attitude, so its price depends on the profit in the future, so the demand on the investment market is proportional to its price level, i.e. the price goes up, the investment demand increases. Just because of this peculiar price mechanism, the housing market has the character of “soaring and breaking”. After a long period of roaring in price on housing investment market, it is so easy to produce “price bubbles”.

7. 住房成为投资品容易引发社会信用的问题，导致金融风险的沉积和爆发：房地产业近年的快速发展，给银行业提供大量的贷款机会，但是银行收益取决于贷款的发放与回收，当过多的贷款集中在房地产时，银行潜在的信贷风险就增加了，一旦房地产价格回落，借款人就可能放弃继续供款，这样必然导致银行坏账，1997年的东南亚金融危机，其一大诱因是过多资金投资于房地产。

It might cause the credit problem in society and cause the financial risks to accumulate and erupt, if housing is totally taken as an investment product. Real estate has been booming for recent years, which offers a lot of loan chances to banks. Yet, the profit of banks depends on issuing and reclaiming the loan. In case too many loans are issued to real estate, the potential credit risk to a bank increases. If the housing price goes down suddenly, borrowers might give up paying their loans, which causes bad debts in banks. One of the main occasions to the Southeast Asia financial crisis in 1997 was too much capital invested in real estate.

8. 住房成为投资品削弱其消费品的属性，容易诱发新的社会矛盾：住房是人们最基本的生活需求之一，只有实现居者有其屋，实现人们在居住条件上的公平，才能最终实现社会的公平。以现在北京、上海、深圳、广州，甚至杭州、南京、厦门住房价格水平及其上升趋势来看，普通大学生穷其一生都很难拥有一套像样的市内住房。当住房需求得不到满足时，容易引起社会的不稳定，而住房成为部分人非劳动性的暴利收入，其贫富差距的扩大更加引起社会普通民众的不满，导致社会动荡。

To take housing totally as an investment product weakens its consumption attribute and might cause new social conflicts. Housing is one of the basic needs in daily life. Only when residents can have their own houses and the justice on people’s living conditions can be achieved, the justice in our society can be finally realized. According to the present housing prices level and their up-going trend in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, or even Hangzhou, Nanjing, Xiamen, it is almost impossible for a common graduate to have a decent apartment in downtown area. When the public housing demand can’t be met, it might arouse social instability. While housing becomes a few people’s unearned outrageous income and causes the gap between rich and poor to widen, common people’s dissatisfaction might be aroused and the social turbulence will finally appear.

9. 除具有消费品和投资品双重属性之外，住房还具有准公共产品的属性，而准公共产品的特性要求政府在市场上发挥一定的作用，以克服市场调节的缺陷。因此，我们认为住房市场的健康发展应该兼顾其双重属性，对于住房消费属性的实现，标准应当是大多数人能买得起房，住得上房，这需要政府发挥一定的作用，完善的公共住房保障制度是社会发展和进步的标志。至于住房的投资属性，固然应该由市场来调节，但是，只要政府兼顾了住房的消费属性，住房的投资属性自然会受到影响，房产价格的泡沫就不容易形成。就国外成功的经验来看，政府适时地、有计划有步骤地推出经济适用房将能平衡房产市场的价格，有利于实现房产市场的健康发展。

Besides the attributes as both consumer goods and an investment product, housing also has the attribute as a quasi-public product, which requires government to exert its influence in it so that the maladies of market regulation should be overcome. Therefore, we think that a healthy housing market should take as both consumer goods and an investment product. The realization of its consumption attribute should be judged with the criterions that most people can afford their own house and there are enough houses available, which all need the government to exert its influence in the market. A complete public housing system is also a symbol to the social development and progress. As for its attribute as an investment product in housing, it should be regulated in market. This attribute can be affected naturally since the government has given its attention to its consumption attribute, which also reduces the bubbles in housing price. According to the successful experiences in foreign countries, to launch economically affordable housing in time and in a planned way can balance the housing price and lead the development of housing market to f a healthy direction.

[gato]

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